Go on the Internet and search for accidents caused by Shell and Exxon (Juan Valdez) and all other. Are you going to boycott them too? What's next, bicycles?
It's a good strategy but I am not sure how long it will hold. The market is entering into more volatile phase and you are running a risk of losing your shares to an exercised call. Unless of course your strike prices are very high and you are picking small crumbs in premiums on top of your dividend. I had done this with range bound stocks during calm markets but at the beginning of this year I just bought and held.
You can never time the bottom, but if are down a lot and want to start averaging now, buy it in small increments on the dips.
They have been trimming 5 cents at a time, so going from 35 to 30 is a logical assumption. Will the stock price go down more on dividend cut? Yes, I think it will. Dividend cut is never a good thing. If it's more than 5 cents, then it's even worse and the stock price will go down further.
If you think about it, what's happening to NLY is pretty scary. Nothing really happened yet and already NLY is down to under 10 from 16. Imagine where it will go when Fed starts pairing its MBS purchases.
I can only hope that some of these declines are caused by year end sell offs, but I am not so sure that's the main reason for the drop.
My opinion of Congress is not too high either. The shutdown was the most ridiculous thing I've seen. You have to admit, though, that when you antagonize so many people you really can't expect them go along with any of you proposals. Even when you house is on fire.
I agree that every person in this country should be covered. The questions is, at what cost?
Regarding my policy, it is Oxford Liberty EPO policy that covers absolutely everything except few things I don't need, like maternity, pediatric dental, mental health (don't comment on that last one, I am not crazy, just very angry). To be fair, I should make some correction to the numbers I gave in previous posts. The old policy had small out of pocket cap and 100% coverage. The new policy has huge out of pocket cap and 80% co-insurance, which means that if I don't use the insurance at all, I will pay 18K, if I use it up to deductibles I will pay 20K, and if I need a procedure I will pay close to 30K.
Regardless of whether we agree on what Obama is (he doesn't look anything like moderate progressive to me) you have been very patient with your replies. I appreciate that.
I am not really that concerned about how Obamacare affects BSX. I am more concerned about the way Barack Hussein Lenin is running the country.
I have said it few times before on other boards and I really hate to sound like a broken record, but I happened to be one of the lucky 5 million who lost their insurance coverage. The replacement policy I found is twice the price. How does 28K a year sound to you? Are you making enough money to pay it? Or are you dirt poor and getting your better, much better, much, much better, policy for free?.
Regarding social benefit. I will consider it. I have considered it. Give me something reasonable, a little tax hike, or cancel some write off, anything that makes sense. Does paying 28K for medical insurance sound reasonable to you? And for what? To give medical coverage to someone who already has it through visits to emergency room?
I ran from Soviet Union three decades ago but it looks like it's catching up with me all over again. Thank god 2016 is just around the corner. Maybe we can get someone sane in the office.
By the way. I am not a Republican.
It doesn't matter if Obamacare fails or not. The tax will still stay and more taxes will come. This president will do a lot of damage to the country before his term is up. Hillary better start trashing him right now if she wants to have any chance of being elected.
Why do you think fed tapering should affect BSX? Or do you mean it will affect market in general and BSX will slide with the rest of them?
No, they paid the same, but they are too stupid to understand that they are ruining the message boards with their incessant postings of the same old thing, caps and exclamation marks and catch phrases. I don't understand, though, who pays them for their pumping. There is zero benefit from what they do. They only drive people away from the boards.
Of course they'll cut the distribution. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Just hold on, collect what you can and hope that in few years things will recover a little.
Well put. I prefer it when people say something constructive or not say anything at all. Speaking of PPS going from 85 to 35. If you have some faith in this company (and you should if you held it that long) , double down and average your price to 45 or so. Collect your nice dividend for few years and wait until the price goes closer to your average. Then sell some covered calls and collect more income. I do it with most of my underperforming stocks. Here is Blackstone example. I bough it at IPO 6 years ago for $33, then I bought more, and then some more. Averaged at 23+. It hit 16 all time low. Now after 6 years, it's around 27, up 18%. That's 3% a year, plus 3-5% dividend, e voila, I got my 6-8% per year on the stock that is still good 20% below it's IPO price. Play long term.
Price averaging is a great thing but you still have to be very careful with doing it indefinitely. I was averaging for years and years and most of my investments did pay off. But in 2008 I did it with Washington Mutual, which at the time was a perfectly solid bank, and you know how that one turned out. At least with NLY things are a little bit easier because they are paying such tremendous dividend. I am now averaged at roughly 16.5 but with all the dividend I have collected I am somewhere around 13.5 (sheltered account, so no taxes).
rivvir, thank you for a very informative reply. I always prefer to hear an educated opinion than listening to people spewing nonsense like, "$30 per share by the end of December". This may be a stupid or irrelevant question, but what do you think about possibility of NLY going under. Is there a real chance of that? Things are bad already and it seems like at this point they could only get worse.
I hear everyone talking about rising interest rates and how horrible it's going to be for mortgage REITS. I agree with that. These companies operate best in flat environment, when rates are neither rising or falling. When they do start to rise things will get really bad because NLY and the likes would have to rotate their long term holdings real quick, selling lower paying assets and buying higher paying ones. It will be a painful process because as rates rise the worth of the underlying asset falls. So, there is loss there. However, when rates rise, long term rates rise more than short term rates and that widens the spread. More spread, with right leverage, of course, means more profits. What do you think?
This is actually pretty good play. Because the price range between the call and the put is so narrow and expiration date is so close (I presume it's next Friday) you only pay 2% in premiums. I also think it will go down next week, but if I were to play this stock I would just buy a short term put at 11:50 for 1% premium and cash it in at around 11.
That would be nice, but I have to disagree with you.
Even if NLY posts good results and Fed leaves the rates alone, that would not push the stock price up by 15%. Mortgage rates are rising on their own and NLY long term holdings are losing value. I am a big holder of this stock, averaged at about 16.5 and I intend to keep it for for a very long time and continue collecting whatever dividend they would pay. When Fed starts raising rates, things will get even worse and I will buy some more of it (maybe). But the good news is that this company is not going anywhere. It is a well established business that is currently in a low end of its cycle. In few years when things stabilize and short/long spreads will widen, the dividends yield will rise again and so will the stock price.
My apologies. I kind of liked your original post, though I didn't agree with it, and I was under the impression that I was talking to a human being. I should have read your other obnoxious posts and just stayed out of it. I learned my lesson. Now, you can go ahead and have your last word.
I am sorry to say this, but you are making a weak argument. First, you are talking about insiders' current holdings but you don't mention their prior holdings. Maybe they had ten times as many shares and they have sold most of them in high 20s. It is not a good idea for anyone with half a brain to sell their entire position. It sends the wrong message to the world. Second, you don't know how they got to have these large positions. It could have all been rewarded to them through stock options at zero cost.
I am not saying Osiris is a bad company. It could be perfectly legitimate and ready for a big breakthrough. But I think it is wrong to dismiss short sellers' opinions or close your eyes on inherent risks associated with biotech companies.