How about letting us know why you think it would go to $50. Why not 30? Heck, why not $5. That would be a great entry point, wouldn't it?
How old are you, doubledown2145? Does your mommy know you are using her computer. Why don't you go play and leave investing to grownups.
Regardless if someone says something negative or positive about Geron, there is an outrage, peoplestart lashing out, name calling, accusations. Are there normal investors on this board or just paid people?
A guy posted that Geron is probably getting ready secondary offering and the whole hell broke lose. Why? Geron has been doing secondaries for years. They have no choice. They are biotech and that's what biotechs do. Yes, they have J&J money but they always need more.
Someone needs to get a life. I can only imagine what kind of sht storm this post will create.
You seem to have a short term goals. 3 years is not a long time to hold any stock, unless of course you are a day trader. Think of it this way. Right now you broke even on NLY. What does it mean? It means that from this point on you are making pure profit of 11% a year. No sense selling it right now. Yes, the stock may still go down, like any other stock, but even if the Fed starts raising interest rates (and they probably will), eventually those raises will run their course and then NYL will go back to higher leverages (right now its around 75B and 5 years ago it was 110B). As a result, their spreads will widen, the stock price will appreciate and so will the dividend. In another 5 years, if you reinvest your dividend, your number of shares will double, and even if you stock price stays where it is you will at least collect double dividend on your original investments.
I held stocks for a long time and I averaged the price and I watched them rebound and return 11-12% annually.
My best example is Blackstone. I bought it at the worst time possible, 2007, at 35.5 per share. I averaged it to 23. Today it's 38.5, so my very first position is up only 10% in 8 years. Still better than having 0.01 interest in the back. Overall, I calculated that will all the averaging and dividend reinvesting and price appreciation I am up about 12-14% a year.
Think about it. Patience.
Someone already said that Geron will be bought out, right here on this board. That was 15 years ago. Let's see if this company manages to last another 15.
Completely agree. It was obvious they were going to cut dividend and I know that it was very necessary thing to do, but to cut it 80% like this is just reckless. Even if you compare them to Seadrill, yes, Seadrill cut it from 20% to 4%, but to go from 10 to 2 is not good at all. They should have done it gradually, like 20% per quarter.
It's not an overreaction.
Yes, their fundamentals are good, but basic problems are still there.
Oil can go down and stay there for a while. Not forever, but 2 years, maybe 5 years is not impossible. For me, it's not a big deal, but for some people it's an awful long time to wait for Ensco recovery.
Also, PE 5 is not necessarily a good thing. It is too low which sometimes indicates that people are not interested in buying it because they don't see the future. I have seen companies with PE 2 however there for a while and then going under. Again, it's not the case here, but I had to mention it.
The real problem is the dividend cut. They didn't just cut it. They slashed it by 80% - from 3 dollars to 60 cents. This would not just panicked people. It would force some funds that rely on dividend dump the company because such drop in dividend would mess up really badly their models and projections.
The glimmer of hope is in the way Ensco was raising dividends in the past 5 years. They did it very aggressively, by 50% jumps. So, let's hope oil goes back to $100 again and then they will rarise it sharply again. I don't mind paying more at the pump. I will more than compensate for it with my stock purchases.
In the meantime, just brace yourself. Bigger drop may come.
3rd quarter was bad but not as bad as 4th quarter. It's all a guess, of course, but I think they might cut dividend.