I was just having some fun at the illiterate guy's expense (dl9bas). According to him/her/it KMI will not survive because of low oil prices and high debt. Such nonsense.
First of all, oil prices are not going to stay low forever. It' is a cyclical business. The demand will pick up. Second, KMI is in transportation business, not exploration. They can still be affected by oil prices but not on the same level as Exxon or BP or Shell, or worse, Transocean and Ensco. Third, KMI has a big exposure to gas, CO2 and coal, so it's not just about oil. Finally, their debt. Yes, it's on a high side, but all their competitors have huge debt.
You are wronged. This company will not broke. They can has big debting but big debing never did no problem because big debting good when companies grows. KMI surviving.
Are you kidding me? Why would anyone in their right mind trust Carl Icahn?
Icahn makes a lot of money, but he does it by moving the market himself with his huge investments and his outlandish predictions. He is a shameless manipulator and I can't believe SEC still didn't come down on him and put him to jail.
His trading strategy (it's hard to call it investment strategy) is based on shaking up the market and getting out in time. He is the one who decides when to get out and you will NEVER know when he does and you will NEVER know what he does in the background. He could be buying FCX and at the same time shorting it with something really fancy like a barrier option or a swap. You better be very careful with him, because he will move fast and he will leave you in his wake, penniless.
Sammy, you are barking up the wrong tree. Do you really think there is a real person behind old man id? He posts incessantly about the same thing, again and again and again and again? Dividend cut is coming. Dividend cut is coming. Stock will go to 7. POT is being smoked. He is either sitting on big short position or he is someone with mental problems. OCD maybe. Do you want to reason with someone who has nothing to contribute to the conversation?
If this guy had something meaningful to say he would have said it. 30, 20, 10, next week, 20 years from now. It doesn't matter. Try to pick up something from people on this board who actually have something to say rather than those who make blank statements like "$30's soon".
Can you please explain what you mean. I am not sure I follow.
First, who says that 5-7% is a normal range. It was 2-3 in 40s and 50s. It fluctuated between 4-15 in 60s and 70s. And it hit 20 in early 80s. What's normal? Who decides that?
Second. Even if normal is 5-7, prime rate is not going to jump there overnight or within one year or within 3 years. Failed policy or not, it would be a catastrophe to raise rates too quickly. Bad for economy.
Third. Again, if the rate goes to normal, why would national debt suddenly triple? Do you mean to say that all those bonds that are paying low rates will suddenly start paying higher rates? How does that happen? If someone buys a bond then, not from the auction but from secondary market, may buy it at deep discount which will result in better rate, but US government will continue paying same low rate until the bond matures, which may be in 5 years or in 10 years or in 20 years.
The lesson I've learned from 2008 crisis is that there is no such thing as safe company. Any company can go under. Though I am relatively certain that Alcoa is not in danger, I wanted to see if people have any thoughts on what kind of impact the split would have on the two company's share price.
I read the article on HP. Very informative. I also have HP which is now two companies. If Alcoa structures the split the same way as HP did then shares will be doubled and prices halved. If by the time of the split the price of aluminum still remains depressed the split will push the price of both companies below $5. At that point you can forget the fundamentals. The prices will fall further as mutual fund managers will start dumping shares. The only thing to do would be to reverse split and those had never worked that well. Look at Citigroup. It's back to pre-reverse split levels after 8 years.
Hey, didn't you hear? The scientists have just discovered a new material that will substitute all metals. Yes, that's how good it is. No more steel. No more gold. No more aluminum. It's called thin air. The world will stop using metals and start using thin air.
You are right. And it's not just China. The whole world is using aluminum. And whatever glut there is today eventually it will go away and prices will go up, both material and the company.
What do you expect from stupid people who base their decisions to buy or sell on rumors and analyst's upgrades and downgrades.
The only time I sell something is either when world is collapsing (2001, 2008) or when I need money to buy something else that I like more.
Ever heard the expression, can't see the forest behind the trees?
You whole attitude is based on a single perspective - I have an investment in Annaly, raising rates will crash them, Fed doesn't know what they are doing. Bad, bad Fed.
I could go into a long explanation about microeconomics and cycles and other stuff. I could defend Fed and Janet Yellen. But I have this feeling you are too shook up by your losses and listen to reason.
I will just say one thing.
The economy is doing better. Not much better, certainly not as well as this administration wants you to believe , but it definitely is doing better. Low rates is the instrument that Fed uses to help economy recover. Having those rates at 0 doesn't leave them any room to lower the rates. If some economic disaster occurs, like China crash, or Italy or Portugal defaulting on their debt, or Greece step out of EU, we will all be in big you know what with Fed not being able to do anything to help. There you go, your forest behind the trees. Just a small patch. Trust me, there is more.
Yes, raising rates will crash Annaly. Forget about their fundamentals and their business structure. Forget about the fact that they are hedged up the kazoo. Forget about the fact that they lowered their leverage (they are at 60B now and used to be 100B). Forget about the fact that at higher rates (in time) the spreads between short term and long term will widen and that will translate in higher profit.
The sheep will bleat and jump the ship (puns all around), and I will hold it, reinvest my dividends, maybe buy some more if it gets really low and wait for another 10 years.
I don't know what you have besides qualcom but if everything you have is in the same category of quality and evenly split between stocks, what you should do is set your dividends to reinvest in the stock and just go away. Come back in 20 years and you will be much happier.
Most of those who sell short do this either for short term speculation or for hedging their long positions. What you say makes sense but there are millions of different factors that may affect the sock price. FED raising the rates is one of them. No buyback would stop the stock price from going down on that news. It may only just lessen the drop. So, shorts will do what they do to take advantage of factors that drive the price of the stock down.
Regarding dividends. Just because you have less shares it doesn't mean that the management will decide to increase the dividend. There is a minimum on how much the company pays out in dividends, so they may decided to keep dividends to bare minimum.
Conclusion. If you try to be logical, yes, you can buy the stock in mid 9, but I wouldn't expect everything to work out perfectly.
I know. It was going up and up few weeks ago, so I thought maybe last week short squeeze ended and shorting started again. It dropped like a stone and this just doesn't make sense to me.
I am searching for news and not finding anything. Is it short squeeze? Options expiration? I know aluminum pricess are down, but this should not be a sufficient catalist for such a huge drop.
P.S. Psychotic people who have nothing else to do but flood this board with same message, please stay away.
I don't agree. There is a difference between negative performance and negative performance. There is also such thing as "investing". When a crazy stock falls 90% and then stays there forever, yeah, that's bad. But when the stock that pays close to 6% dividend gets stuck in a rut, even for 10 years, that's income that you won't see anywhere else. And if you keep putting dividends back into stock you will see your money double in 12-13 years. And if stock actually grows, just a little bit, and maybe raises dividends a little bit, you are well ahead than those who expect some miracly price jumps from a well established mammoth like AT&T.
Then again, if trading is your game try to play it. I do that too with occasional calls and puts.
It's not a bad idea, but it will only work if you create just this one market and disallow the other one. If both markets are running, one where producers hedge their products and one where speculators bet on them, it is pretty much guaranteed that producers will start dipping their toes into speculator's market right away to do some arbitrage.
Also. When you talk about producer's market, would you only allow spot trading. What about futures, options, swaps? Those are speculative instruments and so they would go to stay with the other market.
There is a problem right there. I hope you see it.