I feel really bad for you, people. This company's stock has not moved significantly in years and it's not going to go anywhere in years to come (IMHO). I lost a lot of money, first buying Lucent and then holding Alcatel-Lucent. When I finally gave up and sold it, I lost over 50% of my principal and all the years of potential income that I could have from other investments.
It's up to you, of course, but at some point you have to walk away. There are better companies out there.
It's hard to say, with Bill Gross leaving Pimco. It performed really well in the past, but now it is a little bit too volatile. I would wait for the volatility to subside and then go in.
It's not Google that will buy Geron. It's Starbucks Coffee. And it will push Geron not to $20 but to $40 (I am just trying to come up with something more ridiculous).
What a great post. Very polished. Every penny they pay you to write this dreck, you are definitely worth it.
Mojosh75. You are wrong about longs still believing. THERE ARE NO LONGS. NOBODY BELIEVES. There are only those who try to prop up this dog, and trash anyone who says negative things about it. They will keep pushing it all the way down until it hits 0 and at 2 cents a share they will still be telling you it's about to break out.
All right, your response was polite, so mine will be polite too.
I also have a position in Ensco. It is only 600 shares and I break even at somewhere around 49. But, as frustrated as I may be with the fact that drillers are dead in the water, I don't vent or gloat, and I don't lash out against people, unless of course they decide to start calling me names.
I don't know your financial situation, but it seems to me that you put way too much faith in one company. 3000 shares is a lot. And average 52, you must have ridden it all the way from 62 to get that average.
I am not sure it's the management at fault here. There is just so much you can do when conditions turn against an entire industry. It's not like other companies, Seadrill, Transocean, are doing well.
One last thought. I never invest in anything for short term and I am perfectly willing to wait out the cycle and keep collecting and reinvesting dividends. My best example is Blackstone. I held it for 6 years. At one point it was down 50%. Today, I am up 60% on averaged price, 10% for each year I had it. And I am perfectly happy with that.
At first, I wasn't sure if I should go ahead and give you thumbs down, but then I thought about it and decided to do it. You are one miserable human being who has no other pleasure in his life than getting on message board and gloat out loud.
Why don't go to the cemetery and dance on some graves. That would make you feel better.
I think it is you who are confused because you said the absolutely opposite thing. Why don't you read up on Mortgage REITS and where their dividends come from.
NLY is not a regular company that makes a decision on how much dividends they would pay. Their dividends are exactly a function of their earnings. They MUST distribute most of their earnings via dividends in order to pass paying taxes to the shareholder. If their earnings went up, as Next Divi suggested, their dividends should also go up.
Next Divi may be wrong with his/her calculation and NLY earnings didn't go up. That would explain the price drop.
Good idea. I enjoyed my 100% profit on this stock (symbolic, really, I held it for years), but I think it's time to play it a little. It appears to be stuck in high 8s and low 9s.
This is not break even investing. If you are looking for 20% return in 6 months, that's trading, not investing.
I held NLY for few years now and with dividends reinvested back into stock I am about break even.
When real estate market gets going, and it will, and rates will go up and stay there, that will happen too, the share price will go up and dividends will be raised too. If after 10 years I will show 10% a year profit, I will be perfectly happy. I will also be well ahead of most people who bought CDs or bonds at current depressed rates.
When rates start rising the stock price will drop considerably because NLY's long term investments will start losing their value. They will be very busy getting rid of old bonds and buying new ones. You have to wait until FED stops raising interest rates and then all mortgage reits will stabilize and go back to being very profitable. Then, they will borrow more money and invest it at higher spreads.
If you are looking for a quick buck, sell it now and take your 5%. But, if you are thinking of making a long term investment that pays good dividend, keep the stock, collect and reinvest your dividends, and maybe buy a little more if the stock price really drops a lot.
There is nothing wrong with NLY business model. It's a cash machine when interest rates are steady and poor investment when rates are moving, both up or down.
Thank you for the link.
It's good to be rich, isn't it, to be able to bet like that.
I would like to make some clarification. 2B sounds like a bib number, but that's the amount of total exposure, not what Sorros put out with his own money. I just checked. SPY ETF January 15 put option costs just $6.8 per share. That means he put 68 million of his own money for the deal (if he bought January puts). For guys like Sorros's money it's a drop in the bucket.
Normally, I would defer to people like Sorros, though I would probably pay more attention to Buffet than him, but this move on his part looks too much like a bet, rather than something based on any sort of analysis. And the fact that he keeps doubling down only proves it. For a year already, he has been doubling down, and some of his puts probably expired worthless already, but this only shows that he has deep pockets, nothing else. The market has been in a positive upswing for almost 2 years now, and for good reason too, and I think that it will fluctuate some, as it should, and then keep going up. The only thing that could crash the market is some sort of disaster, like terrorist attack on American soil or a string of Madoff like scandals (George should know about those, that old #$%$).
One more thing. None of us really knows what Sorros is doing in the background. I work in finance and can guarantee you, 100%, that he is doing something in the background to protect himself, because you would have to be insane to make a big bet without hedging it in some way. Maybe he got some knock in barrier options going the other way. I am not sure about it, but I think those are not reported.
Here are some thoughts. I just looked at insiders purchases and I noticed a pattern. Same people are buying and they buy somewhat similar amounts - this August, last November, last May, and on. These buys appear to be scheduled so I think that they don't indicate any serious development in NLY.
Their debt went from 110B to 72B in the past year or two. It means they scaled down their long term investments in anticipation of fed starting to raise interest rate. When rates actually start rising next year, there will be volatility.
I think we are in for rocky performance next year, then when or if the rates stabilize, we should see some profits. Right now, any movement up or down will only be related to speculation.
Let me know what you think.
Congratulation. You have just said a lot of words. It seemed like you gave your opinion on Apple's stock price, but might as well have talked about your last vacation. Now, how about trying it again.
Any reason why you think $100 price was over hyped? What's wrong with PE 20? I remember 90s when Microsoft was trading in PE 50s. What's with a single digit PE? Historically, only utilities trade in those ranges and even those are starting to break out. What's with 80-90? How did you come up with that number? Are there any basis behind your opinion or do you just have this urge to write something?
I am perfectly willing to listen and to accept your opinion as long as it's not something like, run for the hills, the sky is falling.
I like it that you call yourself a daytrader. That's what I call being honest. So many people on this board try to pass themselves for investors and claim that geron is next best thing since google.
Wish you good luck.