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Vapor Corp. Message Board

orthokneepa 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 11, 2014 9:06 PM Member since: Aug 31, 2009
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  • Reply to

    VPCO still over valued by 20%

    by orthokneepa Nov 8, 2014 4:56 PM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 11, 2014 9:06 PM Flag

    Yes and it appears, even though it was only 1 year ago it was a much better company. 1 year ago the company had its wind at its back, money in the bank, an upcoming up listing and momentum in a new industry. IMO 1 of a couple things happened.

    1. If its not already obvious management has been selling out shareholders and mismanaging the company left and right. When a business has a very hard time doing well and looses money/revenue on a regular basis while the industry is steadily growing its either bc the company has no competetive advantage or management cannot execute effectively. I think it has been a case of both especially the latter unfortunately.

    2. Even if the company continues to bleed cash the answer isnt to sell out shareholders. This new 45% dilution is rediculous, especially when you see what they are merging with financial wise. I would not be surprised to see VPCO management slip out the back door after the merger.

    3. The CEO left, even though frija was a little skeezy looking he seemed to have least figured out to grow the company to where it was last year.

    4. Company continues to burn cash at a torrid pace. Regardless of how exciting the product is, industry is, etc etc your still buying a piece of a business. And this business is bleeding cash like crazy.

    I was a big bull on VPCO when they seemed to be a first mover in the industry and showed promise. I was willing to take little or no eps for increased revenue with chance of a buyout such as green smoke with MO. 12 months ago they looked to have been a great addition, now they are a disaster. As a bull I cant make management manage the company better.

    This was always a speculative position for many I assume and should have been kept as such. Now it seems like they are attempting anything to stay relevant stay afloat. Those in general are not great terms to have in any investment.

  • Management has already told you the company is worth 45% less then it is now even when accounting for another operating loss in the merger.

    The writing is on the wall folks.

  • orthokneepa by orthokneepa Nov 8, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    DueDiligence is right on the money with this one. The company was in much different shape 1 year ago then it was now. The financials are showing clearly the company has no moat and as we can see it is very hard to make money in a commodity business. It appears that VPCO was benefiting from the newness of the industry and the trial period of new e cig smokers.

    A big part of what is killing VPCO now and apparently not readily recognized is RAI's and MO's new offerings. It is mentioned in the preliminary results. MO can afford to lose 10mm a year on MarkTen forever, VPCO not so much. Wait till MO and RAI start to drop e cig prices to squeeze competition. VPCO will be bankrupt soon there after.

    The vaporizor segment is the new area of growth, what is it about VPCO's product that no other vaporizor company has. VPCO is trying to join with a second e cig company in how many months? There are prob 20 vape shops in my area. How many are there in US now, 10s of thousands? That is what is killing them, there is no reason for people to exclusively buy their product.

    The decision to merge with VAPO and give away 45% of the company is ludicrist. This means VPCO is valuing itself at only just over 2 times VAPOs current market cap. If management thinks the company is worth this much why do you think its worth more?

  • Reply to

    VPCO turning around

    by payas13b Nov 4, 2014 9:36 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 8, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    it will be a long, long time before they report positive eps. They have lost ~$7 million this year!

  • Reply to

    What I quickly dug up

    by jonsacek Nov 7, 2014 1:51 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 7, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    There is no barrier to entry, go look on your street corner, tons of vape shops. They have no moat and are getting eaten alive.

  • .....but the problem is the market has priced this in and already will. Nearly 100% dilution possible for a company with an operating loss.

    Think about that. Your stake gets cut in half to buy something that will lose you MORE money.

  • Reply to

    What I quickly dug up

    by jonsacek Nov 7, 2014 1:51 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 7, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    VPCO shareholders are getting hosed on the deal. As a combined entity they will have a 49 million dollar market cap with ~10 million a year in operating losses.

    Would you buy a rental property for 49k that was loosing 10k a year, and say...well its in an up and coming neighboorhood?

    Makes no sense.

  • Reply to

    Conference call - Any one listen?

    by chklondon Nov 4, 2014 10:40 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 4, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    You may want to re educated yourself on evaluation of insurance companies.

    You cant say in one breath that the market does not care about ROE or combined ratio and then in another breath wonder why it still trades at a low P/B value.

    ITS BECAUSE OF THE ROE AND COMBINED RATIO!!!!!!!!!!! It has nothing to do with eps or div.

    Why should you invest in an insurance company when they cant write PROFITABLE POLICY!!

  • Reply to

    As usual

    by gainmoney17 Nov 4, 2014 11:37 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 4, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    report wasnt great ROE and Combined ratio still blow.

  • Reply to

    Conference call - Any one listen?

    by chklondon Nov 4, 2014 10:40 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 4, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    idk what the mystery is, the ROE and combined ratio blows. Thats why. Market is tired of waiting.

  • Reply to

    Conference call - Any one listen?

    by chklondon Nov 4, 2014 10:40 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 4, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    Look at their ROE and combined ratio. They cant write a profitable policy yet or legacy plans are still killing them.

  • orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 4, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    its a computer

  • Reply to

    Huge beat by AER! AIG owns 100 mil shares.

    by le54roid Nov 4, 2014 7:39 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Nov 4, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Its a tiered schedule. I believe the first avail date to sell is 1 yr after aquistion then 18 months, 2 yrs I believe. Check the release when they sold IlFC.

  • Reply to

    About the warrants

    by naglecolin Oct 10, 2014 11:18 PM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Oct 13, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    The AIG warrants issued are not the ones the government received for the bailout. They were issued by AIG to shareholders as of 2011 to recapitalize AIG.

    This is different then the BAC, C etc warrants which were exchanged in return for $$$ during the financial crisis.

    During the time the gov held AIG common they received warrants and eventually sold them on the open market but again this was not part of the capital injection AIG received as far as I know.

  • Reply to

    AIG Warrants

    by chxfhx Oct 7, 2014 10:15 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Oct 8, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    You shouldnt have it spoon fed for you. Do some more reading and research, teach yourself. If your going to invest your hard earned money at least know what your investing in.

  • Reply to

    AIG Warrants

    by chxfhx Oct 7, 2014 10:15 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Oct 7, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    its bc they are leveraged. In regard to a good buy/hold I would suggest you research them more, google search is a good way to start.

  • Reply to

    WHY

    by johnny_zhang_yi Oct 2, 2014 10:40 AM
    orthokneepa orthokneepa Oct 2, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Fear? Idiocy? Who knows, just buy more warrants. I am. :)

VPCO
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