The only good news out of Wingat is that someone in Florida won the Powerball. The rest of us can throw out our lottery ticket at about $.60 per share today.
Looks like another yahoo discussion turned useless by posters with severe mental health problems. Too bad that it seems an iron law on here that the crazies will eventually ruin each and every yahoo stock board.
From the Veja Radar On Line (Brazil, autotranslated)
The American Investment Fund Discovery is preparing a war strategy for the Assembly of HRToil, day 29, in Rio de Janeiro.
The Discovery will get three seats on the Board of Directors, which would give him an absolute majority for a change in the management of the company, chaired by Marcio Melo.
Last week, the Fund achieved a victory to enforce the so-called multiple vote. By this mechanism of the Corporation law, each holder of one share is entitled to one vote-a maneuver is typical of minority shareholders that tries to avoid the juggernaut of the owners.
In this House, Melo will no longer be the Chairman of the Board, just with the Executive Presidency of the company.
In a first moment, the Discovery Fund and Quantum Partners, which would have the support of Southeastern Asset Management and MSD Capital (of the entrepreneur Michael Dell), among others, want to restrict the power of Melo. In a second step, would trade all the oil control.
Since the premiere, in October 2010, the paper fell 80%. Marcio Melo ended up being a sort of Eike Batista on a small scale.
By the way, in January, the businessman Rodolfo Landim, together with Julio Bozano, tried to buy the HRT.
By Lauro Garden
....continued part 3
The proposal embeds payment of r $ 8,250 million fixed remuneration for the Board of Directors, which corresponds to a monthly salary of $ 137.5 million for each one.
In 2012, the HRT executives have already received R $ 31,112 million and in 2010 the total remuneration amounted to r $ 10,93 million. In all there are five directors, including a sister of Marcio Mello, the business administrator Maria Emília de Azevedo.
HRT's shares yesterday soared 11 percent, closing the day listed for $ 4.44. This was the third high paper trading this week. On Monday, shares rose 17.42%, followed the next day by a great transfer of direct actions. Over the past four days the HRT ON already rose 33%, with a significant volume of moving well above the daily average. (Collaborated Téo Takar, São Paulo)
Source: Valor Econômico/Claudia Schüffner | The River
This was autotranslated so not sure all numbers are correct but you'll get the gist:
Shareholders of HRT try to change the company management
Daily News- Offshore and Marine Industry
Fri, April 5, 2013 08:42
The great drive with HRT Petroleum's shares this week, which raised the price of the paper in 33% in four days and confused part of the market, is the most visible part of a movement of large foreign and domestic investors who are losing patience with the company. They want to change the Board of Directors and ward off Marcio Rocha Mello, founder of the oil company, from his post as Chairman of the Board of Directors, allowing it to occupy only the Presidency of HRT oil Holdings (HRTP), which is the holding company of the group, which controls the HRT oil & gas and the HRT.
According to a source privy to the matter, the movement of recent days was led by Discovery Capital Management, a hedge fund based in the United States which administers a portfolio of $ 7 billion. He is acting together with the Southeastern Asset Management, which manages $ 32 billion in assets and is the largest individual shareholder today HRT, with 14.28% according to the latest report of the company.
Commanded by Mason Hawkins, the Southeastern investor has been trying to, with great success, passive to active change their participation in companies of which holds shares. That is what happened last year in the Chesapeake Energy Corp., the giant American gas which the co-founder Aubrey McClendon went away along with half of the company's Board after a series of bold bets. More recently, tried to attend the closing of the capital stock of computer maker Dell, which also holds the majority of shares in private hands, to no avail this time.
The well drilling started 3/25/2013. So it has been about 8 days. In a conference call Mello said we would hear most quickly if they reached total depth and found nothing. Otherwise they will need to do analysis.
I would not expect to hear anything for a minimum of ninety days sometime late June. I believe this is what company said but can't find my notes.
Sorry, didn't check date in that report. I think I saw in passing that details of well were reported last night and it has potential for 1,400 bpd of oil.
This is why it is up:
"(SeeNews) - Feb 4, 2013 - Brazil's oil and gas giant Petrobras (SAO:PETR3) notified local oil sector regulator ANP about the discovery of an oil and gas reservoir in one of its two prospecting wells in Solimoes basin, northern Amazonas state, ANP said on Friday.
In its notification to ANP, Petrobras does not estimate the potential capacity of the accumulation. The discovery well is registered as 3BRSA1106DAM and is located in Solimoes' SOL-T-171 block.
Petrobras is 100% owner and operator of the well.
Under Brazilian law, oil companies have to report any potential oil discoveries to ANP. The routine notifications are not an indication of potential reserves or whether commercial viability could ever be declared."
HRT, along with OGX, was mentioned briefly in passing in an article in Brazil business press as a company PETRONAS was taking a look at. That might account for surge. No substantial information just a passing mention.
Thanks for this great model of possible outcomes. My only question comes with your assumption of $7.00 valuation for in ground oil. Right now the market is valuing OGX's oil at about $.50-$1.50 (depending on what you assumes but I've assumed 4.3bbls) and that is shallow water oil right next door to good infrastructure and support and much further de-risked than what HRT would have on day 1 of a successful find. OGX has said their goal is to de-risk their assets so that market valuation moves from this level to $10/bbl in ground. I think that maybe $7.00 in the ground on day 1 of a find might be high particularly given market's hatred of all things Brazil oil right now and the need to obtain capital or farm out to develop a find.
Using your numbers I did some expected value calculations (Prob Success * Amount Won)-(Prob Failure * Amount Wager) and came out with positive values for first two scenarios and negative value for third.
Thanks again for this, very interesting.
Good article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-24/risk-unrewarded-as-emerging-stocks-lose-in-worst-start-since-08.html
One possibility is that HRT is suffering spillover from the devastation/market panic/short selling hitting OGX and the entire Batista EBX empire. The market already hated non-producing Brazil start up'ish Brazil oil companies. Mr. Market may now be figuring that if EBX/OGX/etc collapses (which I don't think will happen) then all future funding/partnerships/etc for similar companies like HRT will be gone.
I took a look at correlation between the two stocks - OGXPY and HRTPY - over the past 15 months on a weekly basis. The correlation coefficient is .95 meaning these two trade in lock step - at least over past 15 months - which to me indicates Mr. Market is viewing the Brazil start up oil space the same and HATES it. If you do a one year comparative chart of the two stocks you'll see this demonstrated.
Additionally, HRTPY pretty highly correlated with EWZ (.80) which is the Brazil ETF. So Mr. Market doesn't like emerging markets, really doesn't like Brazil and this carries through into HRTPY. A simplistic way of putting it (not really correct but good enough for this) is that 80% of HRTPY's price action can be accounted for by the general Brazil market. Of course, a good component of the fall this year in EWZ is EBX companies so this gets somewhat circular.
Finally, Brazil, Brazil oil and commodities, etc. are the pointy tip of the risk on/off trade. With EU problems bubbling up and to the front pages, and serious concerns about China's growth/credit/real estate bubble, again I think this ripples right through to these risky, unproven ventures.
All of this is to say I think there are plenty of possible explanations for HRT price action recently without resorting to market manipulation and that there is some rational behind the price action, at least from Mr. Market's (or should it be Mercado Senhor) perspective. As has been said here many times success in Namibia will change this and break this stock out. Failure will clobber it.
HRT can exploratory phase extension in Solimões
The HRT (HRTP3) announced today that the ANP (national agency of petroleum, Natural gas and biofuels) granted a four-year extension to the duration of the second period of the exploration phase for 10 blocks located in areas south and East of the Solimões River Bay, which are: SOL-T-151, SUN-T-174, SUN-T-196, SUN-T-197, SUN-T-192, SUN-T-214, SUN-T-215, SUN-T-216, SUN-T-217 and SUN-T-218.
In a statement, the company informs that this decision provides the opportunity to conduct his exploratory campaign by March 2017 in an unexplored region that covers an area larger than 27,000 km2, with the potential to identify new hydrocarbon accumulations.
PS: agreed on blackjack table!