I never wrote misskellyfitzgerald is perfect. Some of the issues You mention irritates me too.
Criticizing others, looking in the mirror ain't hard. How about this:
I could ask You to review Your own predictions for PEIX Q2 earnings, which were very much off, which imho can only be caused by laziness. It was obvious that we would never end as high as You predicted. Very obvious!
And Again, how did Your adventures in out of the Money calls turn out? You never came back about it.
It is not to pick on You. I just assess everything I read and doublecheck if possible. I also ALLWAYS question everyone who claims to be perfect. You can call that lazyness or hybris as You wish. It will change nothing for me. I DO spend very much time, searching, reading and assessing.
I also check on misskellyfitzgerals postings each and every time, like everyone elses, and doing that consistently is one of the reasons that I stand by my Words about her being the most valuable poster here.
I can add, that one day You will find, You no longer need the approval of other - apparent to me - inferior persons on a message board. What You do is perfectly good and You can relax and enjoy Your life much better without hunting that approval. Just give it to Yourself. You deserve it.
Would just like to state that imho misskellyfitzgerald is by some margin the most valuable contributor to this board. She consistently brings up a lot of information that can be worked over by any investor, that cares to spend some time on the internet. That is a great basis for shaping Your own Picture of the Company.
Also she IS the first with a lot of facts making up the Picture of what goes on with PEIX.
I know, that a woman making her way in a traditional mans area, has to Work twice as hard and good as the men do, without earning the credits for it. If You ask the men.....
misskellyfitzgerald, You shall know, that You and what You do is highly appreciated, and I hold You in high respect.
Thank You and have a nice sunday. ;o)
Thank You, raymondsgwart.
I don't actually see why they (Sidoti) would consider EPS for 2015 that low. As per the conference call of REX, it seems allmost impossible to open new plants, due to strict regulatory federal and state rules, so excess production capacity is not likely to occur.
Everyone can see, PEIX is working on the inner lines to optimize and increase yield of existing plants, which will surely add to EPS over 2015.
What I can think of, is that they expect ethanol prices to drop over 2015. Maybe EPA is expected to lower mandatory blend amount for 2015.
Yep. they didn't mention nameplate capacity for the 200 mill, though.
The reason for the China import ban of DDGS can be seen clearly in this article at online dot wsj dot you-know-what.
China Is Awash in Grain Crops
Surpluses Will be Sold Into a Global Market Already in Oversupply
By Isabella Steger
Aug. 26, 2014 12:37 p.m. ET
Corn on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange traded at around 2,390 yuan ($388) a ton as on Monday, compared with corn on the Chicago Board of Trade which traded at about 367 cents a bushel — equivalent to about 890 yuan a ton.
China has tried to curb corn U.S. imports this year, citing the presence of genetically modified strains. But Mr. Huang says traders are getting around it by importing other feed substitutes such as barley and sorghum.
As the harvest looms next month, the country is on track for an 11th year of bumper grain crops. But production is too much, even for the world's most populous nation, with warehouses bursting at the seams and posing a dilemma for policy makers.
Estimates from state media say the government will be sitting on 150 million tons of grains that include three of the most important crops for China: rice, wheat and corn. That is double the 75 million tons last year and adds to an oversupply of these agricultural commodities that is pressuring prices lower.
Won't the farmers at some time react? If they lose Money, growing corn, something has to give. Not everything can be subsidized for ever.
Still, inventories of ethanol has build up in PADD West over the latest 2 weeks. But let's see the Development here over the coming weeks.
From DTN The progressive farmer.
Cheryl Anderson DTN Staff Reporter
Renewed Demand Boosts DDG Prices
The five-month-long downward trend in prices of dried distillers grains appears to have finally ended; however, the cheaper prices seem to have stimulated demand and boosted prices upward.
The DTN weekly DDG spot price average rose another $5 in the past week, from $106 per ton last week to $111 this week. This marks the second week that the average has risen after an 18-week freefall that began in early April.
Of the 37 Midwestern locations DTN collects spot prices from, 25 locations reported their prices had increased between $5 and $15 since last week. Prices at nine locations remained unchanged since last week. Only one location reported a price decrease of $5 and two locations had no offers.
Merchandisers told DTN this week that the lower prices are stimulating demand, making DDG a value relative to soybean meal. Some renewed demand is also being seen from the swine and poultry industries that are beginning to add DDG back into their rations.
The renewed demand has also helped ethanol plants get excess supplies cleaned up as well, so plants no longer need to sell off product to clear inventory.
Some merchandisers said the barge market is alive and well after summer problems with flooding on the Mississippi River. That, and the fact that some of the export market lost to China's GMO debacle has found new homes in other countries, also contributed to the price turn-around.
The value of DDG relative to corn this week rose a few percentage points, from 82% last week to about 86% this week. However, that value is still ideal for the livestock sector seeking to find their least cost ration. The value of DDG relative to soybean meal also rose from about 23% last week to about 27% this week.
The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $4.44 this week, compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $8.71.
There is one fundamental "wrong" about it. The mighty oil industry will not just let another 5% gasoline sales, made from their oil, evaporate. They will lobby and fight to maintain it.
The upside is, that one of the oil companies could decide for a buyout of PEIX, due to its strategic location for westcoast fuel. One way or another, the oil industry would stay on track regarding revenue.
The final RFS figures will be interesting.
" But the Sacramento, Calif.-based company faces issues with earnings growth in the future, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting quarterly earnings to fall next year vs. this year."
This is not necessarily so. The Company is actively Building on the existing installed plants to increase production and to achieve lower carbon footprint. They also are in Cooperation with other Companies and State of California, regarding alternatives to corn (sorghum) as well as production of cellulosic ethanol.
Neil Kohler mentions steam-production as another alternative way of lowering carbon-footprint.
Then they will soon have enough Cash to pursue the addition of maybe one additional plant. Maybe options will come reg. the Aemetis California plant if they fail to renew their short term debt of $90 mill.
They allready planned $16 mill. CapEx to build corn-oil separators and cellunators in to the existing plants but could be close to 50 mill USD by Q3 report time anyway.
And on another front, it seems that Distillers Dried Grain prices tend to go up Again, after a big drop. The pastures for cattle, etc. will now be less and less productive over autumn and Winter, which should increase the Price of DDG.
Finally China will at some time release their ban against DDG from US, when they have got rid of their own stocks of (reportedly low quality) corn. This would really boost the Price of DDG.
And from IH, Rule_62 reports that ethanol profit in Illinois is high as a giraffe. This is rich. Who IS this Sidoti analyst? A highschool practitioner? Hahahaha.
Sidoti analyst downgraded ethanol-producing REX from "buy" to "hold".
It drew PEIX Down with it for a while....
I hope I misunderstand this. This is not the final numbers, that were badly postponed 'till "late spring", is it?
From DTN TheProgressiveFarmer 15. aug. 2014
Biodiesel RINs Lose 4 Cents on Further RVO Delays
D4 biomass-based diesel renewable identification numbers retreated 4 cents in value this week on speculation this year's finalized Renewable Volume Obligation under the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Environmental Protection Agency would be delayed until after midterm elections in November.
"With new rumors being talked that RFS (final 2014 RVO) won't come out until November to December, some feel values could dip a bit in the meantime, but I still believe we remain fairly range-bound," a biodiesel broker said midweek.
This year's RVO, due by law to be finalized by Nov. 30 of the prior year, is now 8 1/2 months late.
D4 RINs, the credits used to comply with annual RVO, were last heard traded at 53 cents and talked at 52.5 cents, down 4 cents on the week.
There was an article about an ethanol-plant that had a production issue. Seems to be located in the mid or mid-East, since stocks drop there, while rising a Little in PADD West. Well, it all helps.
I believe this is more likely to happen, than buyout of the last 9% production ownership in PEIX. As Neil Kohler said at the CC: "We are open to mergers & acquisitions".
Very good. A quick check shows, that GBX and TRN have more or less tripled share-price over the latest 12 months. Likely too late to buy those now.