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Nokia Corporation Message Board

otc_cph 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 1, 2015 2:58 PM Member since: Nov 19, 2003
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  • otc_cph otc_cph Aug 1, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    I understand that the revenue will be revisited but not so much why EPS is supposed to be.
    We hardly know anything about the economy of the former Aventine plant, except for their 145 mill USD long term debt.
    As for the former 4 PEIX plants, they on aggregate lost 16 cent per share for the first 6 months and I am confident, they have lost Money for the first month of Q3, which could end up with an EPS of plus 1 - 2 cent. Then there's the former Aventine plants.
    Basically, I wouldn't be surprised if the new PEIX comes out with an aggregate loss for the Whole of 2015 as well as a substantial negative Cash flow, which could drain the 49 mill. USD Cash pile somewhat.
    Sorry, Kelly....

  • Reply to

    CLOSE TODAY

    by bunchnielsenmogens Jul 30, 2015 11:07 AM
    otc_cph otc_cph Jul 31, 2015 8:16 AM Flag

    I watched and learned that You have no clue.

  • otc_cph otc_cph Jul 30, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    Yes,that is wrong. The 5 million USD are not related to earnings in any way. They are taken from the Cash.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by otc_cph Jul 29, 2015 4:34 PM
    otc_cph otc_cph Jul 30, 2015 5:31 AM Flag

    Since I am sure, no-one will give the answer to the Cash flow question, I tried myself:

    Net income:1,010
    Dividends: -315
    Change in accounts receivable: 1,249
    Change in total liabilities: -11.048
    (I believe the line above includes changes in net borrowings. Not sure, though.)
    Net income adjustment: -42
    Depreciation: 3,272
    Change in inventories: 1,031
    Capital expenditures: -12,200

    Total Cash flow from all activities in Q2 = -17,043 mill.$
    Total Cash flow from all activities in Q1 = -19,810 mill.$
    (Q1 figure from Yahoo)

    The Company also expect CapEx of around 10 mill.$ per quarter for each quarter remaining of 2015.
    So for the year, expect a solid flow of Cash, out of the Company.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by otc_cph Jul 29, 2015 4:34 PM
    otc_cph otc_cph Jul 30, 2015 2:53 AM Flag

    Good points but there are no evidence of oil-prices rising to pre-drop levels. The shale-oil production can be increased very fast. A lot of wells have been drilled and just needs fractioning to start producing. This will keep the oil-price down and ethanol-prices as well.
    What there IS evidence of, is that the driving season is coming to an end, which will mean lower demand from blenders. This is timewise coordinated with the cold period, where the production of the ethanol-plants are going to max. levels, since they can save on cooling. Stocks will build once Again like last Cold season.
    Exports will likely hold up and even improve. As long as prices are low!
    Those are my expectations for the next half year or so.
    I also expect a large negative cashflow for the combined business. Wonder if they will issue options combined with new long term debt? That was a real killer for PEIX, for a long period, bringing dilution and lowered earning per share.
    One has to discern between hope and expectations.

    The cashflow is a very interesting figure. I'm not a book-keeper. Will someone, skillfull in this respect take a stab at the flow for Q2? Would be appreciated. TIA.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by otc_cph Jul 29, 2015 4:34 PM
    otc_cph otc_cph Jul 29, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    True. The share Price went from like 11.75$ to 13.50$ and it has literally been dropping ever since, Down to 7.15$ or so, 2 days ago.
    is that supposed to make me feel comfortable about buying shares now? Don't think so.

  • otc_cph by otc_cph Jul 29, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    Profit of 0.03$ per share for the Q2 and a LOSS of 0.16$ per share for the first 6 months doesn't look impressive.
    Am shure they have lost on July months production and sales as well, even with corn oil production from 3 out of four plants.
    What can possibly pull this share up tomorrow? Don't see it...... The board seems to be defensive in the message.

    There must come a lot of questions about the Aventine result for the quarter tomorrow. I don't believe, they are allowed to give precise answers to that.

  • PPRE Down approx. 5% now.
    I have a not-so-good feeling about PEIX earnings. Am tempted to buy put options before close today.
    But first tell me - is it true, You've got cookies on the dark side?

  • otc_cph by otc_cph Jul 27, 2015 8:33 AM Flag

    Could it be an idea with a 'married put' investment before earnings? Puts with a strike Price of 7 dollars, expiring oct 15 should cost around 0.60 dollars. Paired with shares around the strike Price, it could give a profit if earnings are above expectations. The stock is volatile and could quickly rise a couple of dollars.
    If not, the downside is limited.

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