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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

ou71764 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 26, 2016 9:08 AM Member since: Feb 27, 1999
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  • ou71764 ou71764 Apr 26, 2016 9:08 AM Flag

    Interesting - I didn't realize that the FDA had only asked for 12 originally. Thanks for pointing out that fact. Based on that, then I agree, the process could be accelerated.

  • ou71764 ou71764 Apr 26, 2016 8:58 AM Flag

    Correct, it's a near lock that it works. The only potential hold up might be that the 20 patient study was both for efficacy and safety. Hard to say if he FDA will be flexible on the 20 patient enrollment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "The outcome is happening as we have consistently said it would. Whether the stalking horse bid wins or not, we expect that the proceeds generated from the sale of the Fort Worth real estate will result in an approximately 12.0% return on our investment in the Fort Worth hospital."

    You know you've structured your deal correctly when your tenant declares bk and you still make 12%.

    Plus - based on mgt comments earlier, there is a reasonable expectation that the dividend will be increased this year. Hopefully sooner rather than later. I think there is a good chance that it will be in the next announcement, either this week or next.

    I have a very large stake in SBRA - at least tonight, I will sleep well.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    IMPORTANT message from the company.

    by flythink222 Apr 20, 2016 10:20 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Apr 21, 2016 7:49 AM Flag

    I disagree, it hurt us momentarily because we still need 5 to convert. The trial is for 20 patients. 25% of 20 is 5. If patient 8 isn't counted, then we need 25% of 19, which is 4.75. Either way we need 5. So it wasn't a non-factor - we lost the opportunity for another conversion.

    Like others here, I believe we will achieve that long before full enrollment. But it was an unfortunate event in terms of the trial. The human aspect of the setback goes without saying. With patient 6 not being a PR after 30 days, then patient 8 dying, it threw some cold water on the possibility of dramatic PRs in April.

    I've been involved in small biotechs before. I knew patient 8 wouldn't be counted so I didn't worry about that. But I knew it slowed down the pace of the seemingly breakthrough news that we had leading up to the secondary. I have quite a few shares by my standards (I am sure that others have a lot more) - so I wasn't intending to add any more. But in the low 6's, I did add. I have no price target. If the trial news picks up again, as I think it will, the price will take care of itself. We approached 20 with a handful of results. If the results continue to be good, we'll go past that. How high remains to be seen.

  • Reply to

    To all manipulation devotees

    by creedheed Apr 14, 2016 9:42 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Apr 14, 2016 12:56 PM Flag

    Val, this is not about marketing. There is no approved product nor procedure. 5 patients do not constitute meaningful data, much less statistically significant data. Someone in the family of the patient has to sign the approval paperwork if the patient is not able do so. It has to have wording to the effect that the procedure is highly experimental and could make the patient worse. The decision has to be made very quickly while the family is under tremendous stress.

    As more patients succeed the pace of enrollment will accelerate. I bought more today.

  • Reply to

    Predictions on price of oil

    by orthodoc88 Apr 2, 2016 1:20 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Apr 2, 2016 8:51 PM Flag

    Exactly, no one knows. But since investments go in cycles, especially commodities, and oil has been pulverized, I think the next major move in oil is higher. When that will be, or how low oil can go before then, I don't know.

    I know Gartman's take on oil only because I watch CNBC's "Fast Money" and he is a frequent commentator. Otherwise I don't follow him. He can change on a dime so what he says one day - even though he says it's long term - can change the next day.

    There's nothing wrong a with a trader shifting his take on a trade. What I object to is that Gartman says he is making a multi-year, secular bearish call on oil, when in reality he's a trader. He may end up being right...but if (when?) oil goes to $70, he will have abandoned his bearish call with no apologies.

  • ou71764 ou71764 Mar 22, 2016 12:19 AM Flag

    I haven't given it a second thought. IMO it will not only be an easy sell, it will be oversubscribed.

  • Reply to

    Now Banks will gladly show some covenant relief

    by bigrgub Mar 21, 2016 9:00 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Mar 21, 2016 9:09 AM Flag

    The stock would have been shorted back to .45 or lower if the covenant issue wasn't addressed. BK is definitely off the table - perhaps permanently. I don't have any problem with them selling part of their core assets. They give their rationale in the press release - the area wasn't going to be utilized this year and they have plenty of other opportunities in their remaining properties.

    We'll see shortly how Wall Street views the news. I think it's a plus.

  • Reply to

    Dont know whats going on...

    by rapid340 Feb 23, 2016 8:43 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Feb 23, 2016 9:59 PM Flag

    The selloff ging into the report doesn't give me a warm, fuzzy feeling. Ok, I admit, I am a little concerned. But logic should overrule emotions. A rule that I developed for myself - that usually works - is that I should buy dips on stocks I own if there's no news. Doesn't matter the stock - if there's no news to override the reason I bought the stock, I should buy a dip - or at least hold.

    Occasionally that backfires if it turns out that "somebody knows something" ahead of a negative PR. That's always a possibility. Nonetheless, I am bullish going into the report. o

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • At least the headline number looks like a homerun.

  • Reply to

    ZS-9 Presentation in Early March at SHM Meeting

    by hschlauch Feb 18, 2016 9:29 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Feb 21, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    Lurker, I appreciate that you're digging up stuff and sharing it here. My problem isn't that I think what you've found isn't important - my problem is that I'll start thinking that a CRL is possible and I'll be rich, lol! If there's just a label that ZS-9 can't be used beyond "X" number of days we could be rich.

    When I did my original modeling on the stock price potential, I didn't even factor in acute usage - I just did chronic. And even with a small fraction of that market, the stock price potential was enormous.

    Two caveats. One is that rollouts of new drugs can go very slowly. And overhead costs go much higher initially. Fortunately it sounds as if Veltassa is doing quite well - so I'm looking forward to that update. The second is that of the potential market of 3 million+ patients, not all are going to be prescribed a drug. For whatever reason, everyone that can benefit from a drug won't end up taking it.

    We'll see. I remember in one of the early presentations of RLYP's that I listened to that it was emphasized that RLYP had the only long term data. It was always important to me. Especially since the data was overwhelmingly positive. So far, so good. Maybe we will all be rich! I hope so - certainly the people I recommended the stock to when it was $34 per share aren't thanking me yet!

  • ou71764 ou71764 Feb 21, 2016 1:13 PM Flag

    There's nothing quite like being a long term holder of the stock and sitting on a large loss to sharpen one's critique. Wilson, I think your assessment, while harsher than others might express, does capture the essence of why Wall Street doesn't value the stock.

    And I agree that in a buyout, the stock would be worth significantly more than it is today. That is ironic - and frustrating - to see the stock price so low when there is value here.

    I did sell quite a bit when we crossed $2, so I am just waiting to see if my remaining shares can regain some of their lost glory. I have given up on the govt contracts being the turning point. Maybe CoD isn't a lost cause. I don't know what will happen. But I think we will get back over $1 this year. As I recall, I predicted at least a double when the stock was .60. I am sticking with that.

  • Reply to

    ZS-9 Presentation in Early March at SHM Meeting

    by hschlauch Feb 18, 2016 9:29 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Feb 21, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    re: "Secondly, isn't banking on hospital patients who first exhibit HK in ER a smaller patient set than the more typical everyday CKD patient who visits their doctor, finds out they have HK, and gets Prescription?"

    Yes, I agree.

    My thought on the ZS-9 labeling is that I don't want to get my hopes up that Veltassa will own the market. So while I have read all the reasons people have given (including our CEO) that ZS-9 is likely to have issues, I'm trying to not get too excited until we know for sure. For now I'll focus on what the early Veltassa sales are.

    I am disappointed in the price action of the stock. I am significantly under water. I know, shorts are part of it. If we get a good early sales report, maybe some will be convinced that the short game has run its course and the stock will move higher prior to the ZS-9 decision.

  • I think a re-test of the 52 week high is more likely than a collapse in the stock price. We've already had a collapse in the stock price, as I feared (and was ridiculed for stating) when the January conference had nothing new.

    Nothing is for certain, and a whole range of things are possible - but sentiment is poor and imo the next move will be significantly higher. But we do need some indication that the adoption by more retailers is imminent. I am expecting to hear that.

  • Reply to

    Don' t get it....

    by mbozmd04 Feb 12, 2016 3:37 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Feb 16, 2016 9:07 AM Flag

    Or perhaps rather than a special dividend, they'll start doing more than .01 each quarter. Either way, it's good!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Good news this morning. "The settlement agreements provide for a payment that will be fully funded by insurance coverage maintained by Penn West. As a result, the payment will not impact Penn West's cash resources or financial position."

  • Reply to

    Don' t get it....

    by mbozmd04 Feb 12, 2016 3:37 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Feb 13, 2016 1:00 AM Flag

    Healthcare REITs are definitely out of favor, but OHI should be higher...an 8% yield with additional dividend increases this year a near certainty.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Either way, PWE showed strength before the latest speculative rumors, even as oil fell to 26. PWE's low was .45 - yet when oil hit 26 it as trading around .70. It appears that someone (with more money than I have!) has been buying every dip.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Morgan Stanley

    by byronangel Feb 10, 2016 9:27 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Feb 10, 2016 10:04 PM Flag

    I agree, Millennium, risk is to the upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Newbie Question

    by bargain_hunter_4 Feb 10, 2016 9:29 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Feb 10, 2016 9:50 PM Flag

    Good question, bargain. Hard to say. But the arrangement was structured as a seemingly temporary arrangement. That could suggest an evaluation period.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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