% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

ou71764 115 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 29, 2015 2:28 PM Member since: Feb 27, 1999
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • ou71764 ou71764 Nov 29, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    I think it's quite possible that Saudi Arabia will try that balancing act - try to get oil prices higher, but not high enough nor fast enough to encourage non-OPEC countries to get back online any time soon.

    But long term, the Saudi strategy of the past year will fail no matter what they do next. Oil is a commodity - "market share" goes to whoever sells it at the lowest price. It's not like Apple having loyal purchasers of its products. S.A. can only drive other producers offline as long as they are willing to punish themselves. They can't keep other oil off the market once the price rises. Once the self-inflicted pain gets too great, they'll get the price up. Hopefully that's where they are now.

  • Reply to

    PWE vs Whitecap...important read for investors

    by mirskitchen Oct 8, 2015 7:35 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 29, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    The next asset sell will help the stock price, but I don't think we'll be anywhere near Whitecap's market cap until Penn West management can provide 2016 guidance. They need to state convincingly that there's a clear path ahead with numbers to back it up.

    Whitecap is currently paying out $15 million (US) in dividends every month. A comparable quarterly dividend for PWE would be .09 per share. So yes, absolutely, if PWE were to start paying a dividend of .36 per year, the stock would soar. But so far no one has suggested that will be possible in the near future.

  • Reply to

    Big lie today on PWE

    by mirskitchen Nov 19, 2015 3:01 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 20, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    I don't think the problem with the PPS sinking is because of he company's restructuring plan. At this point it's the threat of oil dropping below $40 and not recovering until the 2nd half of 2016. And then, only modestly. True or not, the mantra I keep hearing on oil price forecasts is "lower longer."

    Buying value as a contrarian is tough when the investment slides day after day. Today could be PWE's test of 1.00.

  • ou71764 ou71764 Nov 18, 2015 11:21 PM Flag

    .50 per share? Bummer, I'm going to lose a lot of money.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    next asset sell....Viking?

    by etssssss Nov 17, 2015 9:01 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 17, 2015 9:29 PM Flag

    "Penn West said it would stick to its strategy of selling “non-core” assets to further lower debt and will continue to focus on primary operations."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    dmrc and robots

    by flashwave2000 Nov 13, 2015 12:12 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 14, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    There is a big piece missing from the video clip - namely, what is the robot scanning? It appears that it might be doing a dual function ...(1) a visual scan of a shelf and seeing if there is empty space; and (2) a scan of the price label on the shelf rack (not individual packages).

    I don't see much to get excited about. If anything it's a negative. What we don't need is to wake up one day to a competing technology that's able to scan a traditional barcode from afar with an inexpensive robot.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    OT: I'm a fan of cornerstone analytics

    by mirskitchen Nov 13, 2015 11:33 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 13, 2015 11:24 PM Flag

    The investment thesis by Mike Rothman (founder of Cornerstone) is that oil supply is relatively inflexible, and that oil demand is under reported and growing. Therefore supply won't be able to keep up with demand in 2016.

    I have read from other sources that there's a false impression that demand for oil has fallen when it hasn't. I can accept that intuitively, given that when I drive I-80 I see thousands of gas guzzling vehicles.

    While I am fairly bullish on the price of oil for 2016, being bullish for 2016 is a lot different than saying the price of oil is ready to blast off like a rocket. I hope oil does shoot dramatically higher, but for the moment, that doesn't seem imminent.

  • Reply to

    OT: I'm a fan of cornerstone analytics

    by mirskitchen Nov 13, 2015 11:33 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 13, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    What do you mean by a "banked market (real time)"? In September Cornerstone was predicting $85 oil at year end. It's not year end yet, but that seems to be very unlikely. By your post, I assume they are still very bullish.

  • I don't know if this is the bottom, but it's definitely not the top. The game is to buy low, sell high. What I find interesting is that whenever any investment is at a bottom, there will be people bringing up all the reasons why that particular investment is a bad idea.

    Were they expecting good news when an investment is at a historic low? It's as if they are saying, "my investment strategy is to buy low, unless there is negative news." There is always bad news at the bottom - usually very bad news - that's why an investment is at a multi-year low.

    The case for cheap oil lasting for years can be summarized as this: (1) Saudi Arabia wants to punish other producers, so they'll sell cheap oil indefinitely - and Iran and Russia need money, so they will do likewise; and (2) there s a worldwide slowdown in demand.

    Some day one or both sides of the supply/demand equation will change. And as the saying goes, they don't ring a bell at market tops or bottoms. In the meantime, it appears that PWE will be able to keep its head above water until the market improves.

    If all goes well, one day we will wake up to higher oil prices and a restructured company that is very profitable. I'll predict that the day will come when someone laments "if only PWE hadn't hedged part of their production - the stock would be up even more..." Good luck to PWE longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha Author Revealed

    by cooter_brown Nov 11, 2015 5:25 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 12, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    He probably makes the cheesy bread.

  • Reply to


    by ronsreich Nov 10, 2015 7:57 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 11, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    I bought 200 shares today at 18.93. I have no idea where the bottom is - but I expect to make money buying today. The tenant default makes for a bad headline, but in the big scheme of things it won't affect the company. Listen to the conference call. Stock is cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Senor debt down to 1.34B from 2.45B last year

    by mirskitchen Nov 9, 2015 8:06 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 11, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    mirskitchen, I agree that the company is projecting that they can live within their means. My point was that Wall Street and investors are still skeptical of whether or not they can pull it off. In the conference call the company said they were still preparing 2016 guidance. Until we see that, on days like today when the price of oil is weak, the stock gets clobbered. I added a few more shares.

  • Reply to

    Remarkable Close

    by cooter_brown Nov 10, 2015 4:08 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 10, 2015 6:41 PM Flag

    I suggested yesterday that anyone selling after hours should wait for a better price. Someone sold 10,000 shares at .70 after hours yesterday. "Act in haste, repent in leisure."

  • Reply to

    Senor debt down to 1.34B from 2.45B last year

    by mirskitchen Nov 9, 2015 8:06 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 10, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    So a company with a market cap of $600-$700 million has a previously unknown asset worth $130-$225 million?! If true, and if the stock was priced efficiently before this became known, news of this should send the stock price 20-30% higher overnight with nothing else factored in. Since I am long, I hope it's true, lol.

    Putting that aside for the moment, after the next 1 or 2 asset sales are done, will PWE be at cash flow break even? That is, with the price of oil where it is today. The stock price has responded to the initial asset sales because it gave the company access to cash to pay down debt. So it did take bk off the table. But I think Wall Street wants the bleeding to stop before they get back into the stock with enthusiasm.

  • Reply to

    Cooter was Wrong

    by cooter_brown Nov 9, 2015 5:50 PM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 9, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    I am going to sell the shares I bought as a trade today, but I will remain long with other shares. In cases where earnings are disappointing but not disastrous - and this was not disastrous - people who sell after hours are likely to regret it the next day. I expect the price to open lower tomorrow, but imo you'll get a better price in the next few days that you will after hours tonight.

  • ou71764 ou71764 Nov 9, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    Not a forecast per se. It's more that imo the stock price doesn't reflect the possibility. There's a big market selloff today, so there's a bearish backdrop. And most people who are long WYY are not expecting a payoff until 2016 - and are just hoping for a sliver of good news tonight. The stock isn't priced for good news. So I like the bet.

  • ou71764 ou71764 Nov 9, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    It doesn't look likely now, but I think it would take very little for us to make a run over 1.20 this week. I know, no need to say it, everyone is taking the "under" on that! That would be the way to bet. But I bought a few shares today anyway. Sentiment is so bad on this stock, that I think the downside is limited. I think 1.25 is a possibility. :)

  • Reply to

    Hawka 3rd Quarter results.

    by hawka333 Nov 8, 2015 9:32 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 8, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    Expectations are so low for Q3 that anything positive could spark a rally - which is what I am expecting. I think Monday will be the last opportunity to get in under 1.00. I can wait until 2016 for the big payoff.

  • Reply to

    Nothing New

    by mfstephens1968 Nov 5, 2015 10:38 AM
    ou71764 ou71764 Nov 5, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    Conference call starts in a few minute.

  • ou71764 ou71764 Nov 5, 2015 8:15 AM Flag

    90 days ago the discussion was whether or not they would survive as an entity - I am very happy with how things are progressing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

18.960.00(0.00%)Nov 30 4:01 PMEST