I don't think the problem with the PPS sinking is because of he company's restructuring plan. At this point it's the threat of oil dropping below $40 and not recovering until the 2nd half of 2016. And then, only modestly. True or not, the mantra I keep hearing on oil price forecasts is "lower longer."
Buying value as a contrarian is tough when the investment slides day after day. Today could be PWE's test of 1.00.
"Penn West said it would stick to its strategy of selling “non-core” assets to further lower debt and will continue to focus on primary operations."
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There is a big piece missing from the video clip - namely, what is the robot scanning? It appears that it might be doing a dual function ...(1) a visual scan of a shelf and seeing if there is empty space; and (2) a scan of the price label on the shelf rack (not individual packages).
I don't see much to get excited about. If anything it's a negative. What we don't need is to wake up one day to a competing technology that's able to scan a traditional barcode from afar with an inexpensive robot.
The investment thesis by Mike Rothman (founder of Cornerstone) is that oil supply is relatively inflexible, and that oil demand is under reported and growing. Therefore supply won't be able to keep up with demand in 2016.
I have read from other sources that there's a false impression that demand for oil has fallen when it hasn't. I can accept that intuitively, given that when I drive I-80 I see thousands of gas guzzling vehicles.
While I am fairly bullish on the price of oil for 2016, being bullish for 2016 is a lot different than saying the price of oil is ready to blast off like a rocket. I hope oil does shoot dramatically higher, but for the moment, that doesn't seem imminent.
What do you mean by a "banked market (real time)"? In September Cornerstone was predicting $85 oil at year end. It's not year end yet, but that seems to be very unlikely. By your post, I assume they are still very bullish.
I don't know if this is the bottom, but it's definitely not the top. The game is to buy low, sell high. What I find interesting is that whenever any investment is at a bottom, there will be people bringing up all the reasons why that particular investment is a bad idea.
Were they expecting good news when an investment is at a historic low? It's as if they are saying, "my investment strategy is to buy low, unless there is negative news." There is always bad news at the bottom - usually very bad news - that's why an investment is at a multi-year low.
The case for cheap oil lasting for years can be summarized as this: (1) Saudi Arabia wants to punish other producers, so they'll sell cheap oil indefinitely - and Iran and Russia need money, so they will do likewise; and (2) there s a worldwide slowdown in demand.
Some day one or both sides of the supply/demand equation will change. And as the saying goes, they don't ring a bell at market tops or bottoms. In the meantime, it appears that PWE will be able to keep its head above water until the market improves.
If all goes well, one day we will wake up to higher oil prices and a restructured company that is very profitable. I'll predict that the day will come when someone laments "if only PWE hadn't hedged part of their production - the stock would be up even more..." Good luck to PWE longs.
I bought 200 shares today at 18.93. I have no idea where the bottom is - but I expect to make money buying today. The tenant default makes for a bad headline, but in the big scheme of things it won't affect the company. Listen to the conference call. Stock is cheap.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
mirskitchen, I agree that the company is projecting that they can live within their means. My point was that Wall Street and investors are still skeptical of whether or not they can pull it off. In the conference call the company said they were still preparing 2016 guidance. Until we see that, on days like today when the price of oil is weak, the stock gets clobbered. I added a few more shares.
I suggested yesterday that anyone selling after hours should wait for a better price. Someone sold 10,000 shares at .70 after hours yesterday. "Act in haste, repent in leisure."
So a company with a market cap of $600-$700 million has a previously unknown asset worth $130-$225 million?! If true, and if the stock was priced efficiently before this became known, news of this should send the stock price 20-30% higher overnight with nothing else factored in. Since I am long, I hope it's true, lol.
Putting that aside for the moment, after the next 1 or 2 asset sales are done, will PWE be at cash flow break even? That is, with the price of oil where it is today. The stock price has responded to the initial asset sales because it gave the company access to cash to pay down debt. So it did take bk off the table. But I think Wall Street wants the bleeding to stop before they get back into the stock with enthusiasm.
I am going to sell the shares I bought as a trade today, but I will remain long with other shares. In cases where earnings are disappointing but not disastrous - and this was not disastrous - people who sell after hours are likely to regret it the next day. I expect the price to open lower tomorrow, but imo you'll get a better price in the next few days that you will after hours tonight.
Not a forecast per se. It's more that imo the stock price doesn't reflect the possibility. There's a big market selloff today, so there's a bearish backdrop. And most people who are long WYY are not expecting a payoff until 2016 - and are just hoping for a sliver of good news tonight. The stock isn't priced for good news. So I like the bet.
It doesn't look likely now, but I think it would take very little for us to make a run over 1.20 this week. I know, no need to say it, everyone is taking the "under" on that! That would be the way to bet. But I bought a few shares today anyway. Sentiment is so bad on this stock, that I think the downside is limited. I think 1.25 is a possibility. :)
Expectations are so low for Q3 that anything positive could spark a rally - which is what I am expecting. I think Monday will be the last opportunity to get in under 1.00. I can wait until 2016 for the big payoff.
90 days ago the discussion was whether or not they would survive as an entity - I am very happy with how things are progressing.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I believe some good news is already baked into the current price. But I thought that about CIE too, and that stock is rising sharply today after their conference call this morning. So it just depends what PWE has to say. I'm not playing the conference call for a trade. I expect the stock to go to $4 (minimum) within 18 months. As long as mgt continues to successfully proceed with their plan, I will stay long.
Some of the posts here seem to be oblivious to that fact. Add to it that PWE does have an earnings release and conference call this week, with the potential for another deal to have been completed, so there's no mystery to the big rally.