The whole tone of the call was it's going to happen. All of it. Timing is unknown, tipping point event unknown - but when it does occur I think his quote was "everyone is going to pile on."
I'm listening at work and was distracted so I hope I heard that correctly - if so, it sounds good!
10,000 shares finally traded today, but barely. Everyone must be waiting for Monday to see what's up.
Good reference, slammer! Or point him to "AITF : THE ARCHIE BUNKER PANTOMIME SUICIDES" on YT. As for the failed close, we were up for the week...and 3 weeks ago we closed at 1.31. The price will fluctuate until there's news. Soon enough.
When I don't trust the mgt of a company I have a large stake in, I use up moves to start lightening. I might hold some shares if I didn't trust mgt., but I would not have a large position. There are a lot tech companies with potential. You might want to consider spreading your investment over several of them.
Good point, Stein, the run-off is not part of the core business so it might be better to ignore it. It was a good quarter. I scanned the conference call on the SA transcript. Still need to listen to it.
meffaman, are you thinking that the headline might read differently..that there might be a more easily understood statistical number under the original method? I guess we'll never know if the valuation would be different under the two scenarios. A halt for efficacy should send the stock straight up, no matter which it is.
ggrail, too funny! I have a friend that is a geek who ended up getting a PhD, and I would often call him "Spock" when he would go off on some thread over my head. I will say this - I do get it that we're in the right sector at the right time.
I am just expecting a 5 figure profit. I know you're aiming for a couple of decimal points to the right of me. And if anyone deserves a $1 million trade, you do! But I buy my wine off of the bottom shelf. And my speculations are in my Roth IRA (no taxes). If I make 10K with WYY, I will be EXTREMELY happy. Anything about that is gravy.
Using Harry Browne's best kept secret that "almost nothing turns out as expected", I'll say next Sunday, a halt for futility not efficacy, and the stock opens at $9.99 on Monday.
OK, OK, that was my joke guess. Oh, I don't know. Since it's just a guess for fun, I'll try to come up with something. I am thinking that the delay means that the FDA is considering the alternative measurement. And since people who are smarter than I am on the matter think that if it is the case that they agree to it, then that would mean a halt is very likely.
So I'll say a halt. Now, when? The company said Q2. That means up to June 30. Logically I should say June. But due to personal obligations, I won't be unable to access my brokerage account when the market opens on Monday, May 4. So I'll take the sad sack approach and guess that a key moment in my trading life will occur the one time I'm not watching my stocks.
So there's my guess - Monday, May 4, a halt for efficacy. Now...the opening price? You didn't say the high of the day - you didn't say the closing price - you didn't say the peak price 3 days later. You want the open. IMO the open will be lower than the other times I just mentioned...the mm's will clear a lot GTC trades on the open and the price won't open as high as it will end up being. We might open at 1/2 the eventual high So I'll say the open will be $129.
Final answer, Regis - Monday, May 4, a PR for a halt for efficacy, and a $129 open. And I offer certainty with that guess - I am 100% certain that it won't happen that way.
FWIW, one of the stocks that I speculated in - and that I also posted about - I received this response to a question I had asked on the message board..."Do your own DD!" The person who told me that was naturally abrasive, but he was correct. I hadn't done all that I could. But we learned to appreciate each other over time. And occasionally I still bump into him on the mb's. He is still abrasive! I'd point you to the post but the company was bought out and the threads no longer exist.
But in general I think it's a poor use of one's energy to tell someone that you aren't going to answer a question. Why post that you aren't going to answer someone when that is a response?! Better to point them to where the information is than tell them you won't answer.
Anyway, I'm not sure what someone said to you, because I don't always read all the posts on the stocks I own. But I wouldn't worry too much about mb put-downs. It goes with the territory.
Good advice from golong and AK. As far as holding on for the possibility of a buyout after approval, it's a high risk strategy. A reason to hold after approval might be that the stock price doesn't fully realize the potential. If RLYP is trading under 50 after approval, I wouldn't sell just because it's too cheap. Even if a company is approached about being bought, they might not be interested. Hostile takeovers are rare. So holding purely for a potential buyout isn't a strategy I would use.
But you never have to buy or sell all at once. You should be using a broker with low commissions. If so, you can have multiple entry and exit points. If there's some reason to think the company might be exploring a buyout, you can sell some and let some ride. No one can ever consistently pick the exact top or bottom. It's a good feeling to pocket some profits, even if the stock continues to rise. I seldom buy or sell all at once. But with a biotech, I will sell all my shares if their lead drug fails to meet its primary endpoint.
I like investing books that have personal accounts from people who have done it successfully. So they might not be current. It's more about the mindset of a trader, not getting a stock tip. The best one imo is Jack Schwager's "Market Wizards" published in 1989. So it's from the 1980s, meaning a lot of it is dated when they talk about not having real-time computer quotes, or the commissions and spreads. And a lot of it is commodity trading.
Nonetheless the emotional part (ups and downs) and going against the herd...or following a trend...all that is still very relevant. The book is interviews with traders. He did a series of books. I think the original one written in 1989 is the one I would start with. It's cheap in paperback. Not everyone likes to read firsthand accounts that are historically dated. But if you start reading the interviews, you'll know if you're a trader.
Given the savings to the retailer from using the DMRC barcoding replacement, I think Walmart will will bite. But until it happens, it's waiting to see who the second retailer will be. If Walmart converts to it, that would start the process toward universal adoption.
AK, if a big pharma has a complemetary drug that they can market along side patiromer, rather than needing a separate salesforce for it, then that might be a reason for them to want the drug. If they bought the company they could eliminate all the overhead as well.
Because of that, either drug would be worth more to a big pharma than it is to its current company. If RLYP or ZSPH had $200 million in gross profit and $100 million in fixed costs, then that's $100 million in net profit. If a big pharma buys either drug and then doesn't add to their fixed costs, then their net profit would be $200 million not $100 million.
Good question. All REITs seem to have come under pressure. Also, an earlier post by ballab suggested that AVIV shareholders might have sold some of their stock. And OHI had to backtrack slightly on guidance since the deal with AVIV didn't close as quickly as they had expected. Nothing is changing in the long term story. Good price to add, imo.