I listened to the conference call. I don't need to know the day-to-day details. They said enough for me to buy more.
No, the stock price didn't go as high today as I expected. I think some people missed that Asia was selling off sharply overnight and the talk was that oil had peaked for the time being. One day doesn't matter. We'll go higher - for anyone willing to ride it out, imo this will pay off big.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Congrats on your big bet on PWE! Monday will be a good day. But before I start counting on $10 per share, can you (or anyone else) come up an estimate as to where the company is concerning profitability? I ask that because in the PR they mention $100 million in annual savings...and that was the company's loss last quarter.
Mirs, I appreciate your hard work to provide information, but I might have missed any price projections you had.
RE: "If PWE has an enterprise value of 6B with 500 to 700M in debt, what's the share price???" Enterprise value has the market cap in it. To answer your question, the market cap would be 5.3 billion (6 billon minus 700 million).
Presently we have a market cap of 500 million at $1/share. So that would suggest a $10+ share price. Based on your comments to not pump the stock, that doesn't seem to be what you want to suggest. What is you price target - use whatever asset sales assumption and oil price assumption that you think is reasonable. TIA.
I don't have the detailed knowledge of the company that others do, but I am long. This is the way I sum up the reason to stay long:
(1) Company is operationally profitable at current oil prices
(2) With debt payments, company is not profitable
(3) Assets far exceed debt - with asset sales, debt can be reduced to the level where the company is profitable.
The issue with the covenant violation is a manifestation of point (2). IMO the problem is the pace of getting to (3). The company has been pursuing asset sales for some time, and has had some success so far, but it's in slow motion.
They need to get this debt mess behind them once and for all. You can't run a company where every quarter you have to report on the potential for covenant violations. No one knows if oil is going to $60 next or back under $40. But with oil back at $50, the deals are there. They need to close the deals at whatever the going rate is and then tell the lenders adios.
I don't care what assets they sell. If they sell core assets, and it becomes a much smaller company in terms of assets - but is profitable - I would prefer that. I added a few shares as the price dipped into the .60s, but I thought the last conference call was a disaster. They did not articulate the clear path to resolving he covenant issue, much less give assurance that the path to profitability was in the near future.
To me the issue isn't that lenders are playing hardball - the issue for me is that the company hasn't taken care of the debt. Don't re-negotiate the debt with lenders - pay it off! With oil up so much from the lows, they should sell whatever they need to sell and get past this forever.
Where do I access AF comments? And what time zone is the 2:00 expectation?
I agree, Ortho - I believe the creditors are playing hardball. The conference call had none of the reassurances like past calls that the talks with the creditors are cordial. To avoid bk, the company might have to accept a lower price on their assets that are for sale. Either that or do a large secondary or private placement at a price close to today's lows. They will need to act relatively soon.
So things don't look great at the moment due to the debt/covenant mess. We could see the stock price go lower. But I added today nonetheless. I expect the company to pull out of this, one way or another. Once it is certain that they are going to prosper, the price will already be much higher. To buy cheap, you have to buy when the news is bad. So until we get a PR, it could be a rough ride. Good luck longs!
Interesting - I didn't realize that the FDA had only asked for 12 originally. Thanks for pointing out that fact. Based on that, then I agree, the process could be accelerated.
Correct, it's a near lock that it works. The only potential hold up might be that the 20 patient study was both for efficacy and safety. Hard to say if he FDA will be flexible on the 20 patient enrollment.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"The outcome is happening as we have consistently said it would. Whether the stalking horse bid wins or not, we expect that the proceeds generated from the sale of the Fort Worth real estate will result in an approximately 12.0% return on our investment in the Fort Worth hospital."
You know you've structured your deal correctly when your tenant declares bk and you still make 12%.
Plus - based on mgt comments earlier, there is a reasonable expectation that the dividend will be increased this year. Hopefully sooner rather than later. I think there is a good chance that it will be in the next announcement, either this week or next.
I have a very large stake in SBRA - at least tonight, I will sleep well.
I disagree, it hurt us momentarily because we still need 5 to convert. The trial is for 20 patients. 25% of 20 is 5. If patient 8 isn't counted, then we need 25% of 19, which is 4.75. Either way we need 5. So it wasn't a non-factor - we lost the opportunity for another conversion.
Like others here, I believe we will achieve that long before full enrollment. But it was an unfortunate event in terms of the trial. The human aspect of the setback goes without saying. With patient 6 not being a PR after 30 days, then patient 8 dying, it threw some cold water on the possibility of dramatic PRs in April.
I've been involved in small biotechs before. I knew patient 8 wouldn't be counted so I didn't worry about that. But I knew it slowed down the pace of the seemingly breakthrough news that we had leading up to the secondary. I have quite a few shares by my standards (I am sure that others have a lot more) - so I wasn't intending to add any more. But in the low 6's, I did add. I have no price target. If the trial news picks up again, as I think it will, the price will take care of itself. We approached 20 with a handful of results. If the results continue to be good, we'll go past that. How high remains to be seen.
Val, this is not about marketing. There is no approved product nor procedure. 5 patients do not constitute meaningful data, much less statistically significant data. Someone in the family of the patient has to sign the approval paperwork if the patient is not able do so. It has to have wording to the effect that the procedure is highly experimental and could make the patient worse. The decision has to be made very quickly while the family is under tremendous stress.
As more patients succeed the pace of enrollment will accelerate. I bought more today.
Exactly, no one knows. But since investments go in cycles, especially commodities, and oil has been pulverized, I think the next major move in oil is higher. When that will be, or how low oil can go before then, I don't know.
I know Gartman's take on oil only because I watch CNBC's "Fast Money" and he is a frequent commentator. Otherwise I don't follow him. He can change on a dime so what he says one day - even though he says it's long term - can change the next day.
There's nothing wrong a with a trader shifting his take on a trade. What I object to is that Gartman says he is making a multi-year, secular bearish call on oil, when in reality he's a trader. He may end up being right...but if (when?) oil goes to $70, he will have abandoned his bearish call with no apologies.