As long as the patents reflect marketable products - and so far they have - then keep them coming. The company is going to have a major rollout in a few weeks and announce major strategic partner(s). The stock appears to have made a major bottom in the high 17s / low 18s and has started to tick higher...technicians will tell that's when to buy. Tax loss selling will be over shortly. IMO now is the time to load up. Yes, I'm very bullish.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
We'll know the date for the release of the interim analysis when they release it. But since they were estimating Q3 in March, if we don't see it until January or February, it means either the enrollment dried up or the results turned extremely positive. Even if it's the latter, I doubt that there will be a halt. Patients have to be in the trial for months/years to start passing the SOC results. But it is possible they will recommend a halt - wouldn't that be a PR to wake up to!
I don't expect data to be released with the interim analysis. The analysis for efficacy doesn't mean the data will be released. The committee will want to see how the trial is progressing so far, so they will get data. But that doesn't mean we'll see it. Anything the company has to share will be released before the presentation next week or the shareholders' meeting on the 20th. We're about to find out where we stand.
I think retailers with a large number of employees will be all over the barcoding replacement because the savings to them (they'll need fewer workers) will be immediate. The payoff on the other uses isn't as certain. DMRC keeps saying they are working with large retailers on the barcoding replacement - it's only the non-disclosure agreements that's preventing them from revealing the names.
If there's a deal for barcoding replacement, I think Costco has to be one of the lead possibilities since DMRC already has a business relationship with them. Hopefully others are in the mix. Before the stock really takes off Wall Street is going to want to see what type of revenue stream is going to be generated from these deals.
This sounds like one piece of the puzzle, in-store marketing, but it's not the whole package. Maybe not even all that important. Are you going to give Apple permission to track you in their store? Barcode replacement doesn't need anyone's permission. We'll find out in January if we've got some deals with major retailers to replace barcoding. That would be much bigger news imo.
burnaka, your concern is why the FDA requires large, double-blinded phase III trials to get approval. In presentations Linda has addressed the problem of phase III results not matching phase II results. It's why the market cap is so low compared to the market potential - it hasn't been proved yet in a phase III trial that DCVax-L has statistically significant efficacy.
But the control group in the phase II trial did significantly worse than the DCVax-L patients. That's a positive sign. DCVax-L has also been used for more than just brain cancer. The jury is still out on the phase III trial, but if you had to bet, so far the evidence points to it being effective.
Cancer mutation might be a factor limiting DCVax-L's effectiveness. I don't know. It might be or it might not be. But even if cancer continues to "mutate around" the vaccine, the vaccine could have a very large impact on PFS and OS compared to current SOC. At the time DCVax-L is injected into the patient, the original cancer is known to the dendritic cells. Just killing the original cells could greatly extend both the life expectancy and quality of life of the patient.
Otter, there's been no announcement about the 10Q that I've seen. I know it's the SEC deadline. So either they will file the 10Q or ask for an extension - it can be after hours.
We are waiting for updates on 2 separate trials. 10-Q is due tomorrow. But don't dismiss the interviews - if someone told me that he had been cured of cancer with no side effects, I'd take notice.
analystveteran, there are 2 separate vaccines, 2 separate trials. The phase III brain cancer trial is using DCVax-L, which has been used on humans...we know the results from its use on humans in the phase I/II trials. The results were extremely good.
DCVax-Direct is being used in the phase I trial for inoperable tumors. Before this trial it had only been used on mice. This trial is the first time it has been used on humans. We have no human data whatsoever, except possibly for the patient in the Fox interview. If that patient was on DCVax-Direct, which is the most logical explanation, then it's the first evidence we have that the vaccine (DCVax-Direct for inoperable tumors) works on humans. We should get hard data shortly - it could be very, very good.
Red, a poster presentation is done in a large room with other posters. The presenters stand with their posters and answer questions. It has a time range, say 1:00 to 4:00. Then anyone who is interested walks around the room and views the posters and asks questions to the presenters. Anyway the one time I saw one that's the format it used.
Almost all the small biotechs that I own or follow were down today. NWBO is at the low end of its trading range, which is different than a breakdown. Still waiting for news.
If phase 1 is going as well as we all hope, the company can start phase 2 without any additional FDA authorization. That's a plus. If the FDA wants to see phase 2 data before they decide on early approval, it will already be underway and rapidly enrolling.
jwillie, thanks for pointing that out. Indeed, the company PR from July 7, 2003 does say that DCVax-Direct is being used for the prostate trial. I really hope it's the same vaccine. I agree with you, it does give more confidence that it works. But not a little more, a LOT more. :)
But this raises some questions since the company isn't trying to tie the prostate trials to the new phase 1 DCVax-Direct trial that started this year. Why wouldn't they want to do that?! Could they have possibly renamed the former DCVax-Direct to DCVax-Prostate and then started using the name DCVax-Direct for the new vaccine? I don't know, I'm just wondering out loud.
Great post, I appreciate that you shared your experiences. You received the prostate form of the vaccine - it's still on the shelf after a very successful phase 2 trial, as the company is seeking a partner for phase 3. Not sure that they'll get one. But it adds credibility to the scientists at NWBO and the current trials to have multiple forms of the vaccine be successful. And you are living proof of that!
Is squamous a type of NSCLC or small cell lung cancer? Or is it its own category? Anyway, I found a stat. While it does not break out Squamous, it did say that the inclusion of Squamous did not change the stats. So by inference, PFS for Squamous would also be 2.7 months. If that is the case, and your estimate of 5 months is correct, it's huge.
Google my quote for the website:
"In the phase III LUME-Lung I trial in patients with previously treated stage IIIB/IV or recurrent non–-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), median progression-free survival (PFS) was 3.4 months for patients randomized to nintedanib and docetaxel, compared with 2.7 months for patients assigned to placebo and docetaxel (hazard ratio, 0.79; P = .0019), reported Dr. Martin Reck of the department of thoracic oncology at Hospital Grosshansdorf, Germany.
"In addition, "we have seen a significant improvement of overall survival in patients with adenocarcinoma," Dr. Reck said at the annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology."
"However, when patients with squamous cell NSCLC were included in the analysis, there was no significant difference in overall survival between the treatment groups, he said."