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Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

ouch_yikes 91 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Feb 23, 2005
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  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes 16 hours ago Flag

    Definitely says shortage, yet, apparently, Sagent still has available supplies in all categories...What does this all mean? Does Sagent order from the above list of labs? It would appear if Sagent ever runs dry, Fuselev revs will spike once again, but not until.....

  • Reply to

    ITNM 65 Times Revenues

    by joesolomon333 Aug 26, 2014 11:28 PM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 27, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    I do not know why you say "lemonade stand" revenues when Belinodaq has not even had one quarter to prove itself in the least? As far as I see it, the very best case scenario is that, given its tolerance and safety profile, the drug Belinodaq eventually pulls in something similar in revenues to Folotyn. However, I would conservatively give it far less the first year, but, as long as revenues remain stable with their other commercial drugs, this would still be enough to put the biotech way over the top into solid profitability.....GAAP profitability...and this, without even the necessity of CE MELPH as its next revenue contributor, which should add even MORE very SOLID future revenues....All of these niche drugs and their revenue streams(including Zevalin), each unexciting by themselves, do collectively start to throw off very impressive revenues stats for a biotech STILL with only $500+M in market cap valuation. However, as far as big payoffs, I am in this biotech strictly for the potential heavy hitters of their very near future and all it takes is one drug to catapult the stock. The pessimist on this message board think(and, IMO, its because they harbor on & on about this biotech's past disappointments) that what they have done over the last decade is the only reflection of their future prospects. That is faulty logic. Regardless of how unexciting this biotech currently is, their current growing commercial line-up of FDA-approved drugs serves a HUGE purpose and all the revenue contributions coming in from everywhere(yes, again, including Zevalin) do start mounting impressively as a collective.....and sets this biotech up to potentially become very, very big, without having to take on huge risks(and downside) in the process...

  • Reply to

    SOMETHING BREWING HERE LONGS!!!

    by rootbound43 Aug 27, 2014 1:47 PM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 27, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    The volume utterly drying up is a good sign for longs....... ~16M shares that are short. The days to cover must be off the charts high....

  • Reply to

    NEWS OUT!!! Caremark Adds BELEODAQ!

    by rootbound43 Aug 27, 2014 2:52 PM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 27, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    Hey Root, that is actually solid DD, much better than the daily "are we halted?" posts

  • Reply to

    ITNM 65 Times Revenues

    by joesolomon333 Aug 26, 2014 11:28 PM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 27, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    As for Zevalin, you must mean $40M(not 40K). Yes, Its a disappointment, but, considering what Raj paid for it, still not a dud. Eoquin(now called Apaziquone) can already be considered successful given what Raj actually paid for the drug and what he has already garnered from it: mainly, the huge upfront by AGN launching the ability to pick up Zevalin and acquire and launch Fuselev. Fuselev has suffered no discounted value whatsoever in 13 years over in Europe. Why would it be different in America? Fuselev sales(whether due to shortage or not) have allowed for the further acquisitions of numerous other drugs, namely: Folotyn, MarQibo, Melph and SP-2012. MarQibo needs its NDA expansions and so will Belinodaq for moderate success(meaning hundreds of millions in annual sales). Even so, its "hardly lemonade stand" when they are currently are doing $45-$50M/Q's and can have another drug contribute tens of millions more. I would consider it vital to cushioning current revenue stability. Selling a nuclear drug(like Zevalin) must be far, far more difficult than selling Melph, which is simply a superior version of the much older version or SP-2012, ditto....

  • Reply to

    ITNM 65 Times Revenues

    by joesolomon333 Aug 26, 2014 11:28 PM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 27, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    Tartia, The exact version of Fuselev has been safely selling over in Europe for going on 12-13 years now and rakes in roughly ~$180M-$200M/Y, and does this despite several large countries being based around social care...I have always wondered why Fuselev U.S. isn't garnering very similar in revenues given overall similar population base...Both Belinodaq AND CE Melph should put the fear-mongering fire(hence monster short-covering in the coming months ahead) out for good, with SP-2012 being just the first of two holy grail's(I am sure that you are familiar with what the other might be as you've called it the sleeping giant in the past). In fact, SPPI's revenues contribution mix stand a very good chance to go up +50% minimum. How on earth could ANYONE in their right mind pass on that, even SUPERFICIALLY?....Actually, crunching the current #'s trajectory on SPPI, inclusive of imminent future revenues and inclusive of the future pipeline speculation valuation, etc., I am very glad that I own a boatload...and....nearly 16M shares short are essentially trapped with nowhere to go..... making for tremendous, tremendous upside.....

  • Reply to

    SPI-2012 Data Expected Any Day Now??

    by rootbound43 Aug 26, 2014 10:32 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 26, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    They did $47M last Q, and this was without Belinodaq contributing not a dime in revenues...Should current revenues remain stable and Belinodaq contribute only ~$12M/Y going forward, this gives them a relatively easy hurdle of ~$200M/Y revenue run rate...Market P.E. sales multiples can run anywhere from 4(X) on up 100.... Intermune this week was bought for a lot more then 4(X)! So was IDEX a few months back! So, taking a less amount in multiple and not even including any future revenues that potentially come from pipeline, its $200M x 4 = $800M PLUS their ~$135M cash...This pretty much puts them near $1B on bare bones assessment, un-inclusive of CE Melph or their very late stage blockbuster potential pipeline.....The stock should currently be fairly valued at around nothing less than $15 and you can double that with any pipeline speculation valuation priced in....

  • Reply to

    SPI-2012 Data Expected Any Day Now??

    by rootbound43 Aug 26, 2014 10:32 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 26, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    This biotech, ESPECIALLY with current revenue stability, SHOULD be receiving a VERY solid 4(X) revenues market multiple, PLUS when you tack on their existing ~$155M cash, yes, DOES put the stock market cap at ~$1B. However, when you add the potential further future valuations: CE MELPH, SP-2012, SP-1620, Apaz, MarQibo NDA expansion, etc, etc, etc, its much, much higher....

    EVERY publicly traded biotech listed on the Nasdaq has some sort of pipeline speculation valuations factored into their stock's price, except SPPI.....This is called: EXTREME market inefficiency.....and I've never seen these kinds of market aberrations not eventually correct themselves.....

  • Reply to

    SPI-2012 Data Expected Any Day Now??

    by rootbound43 Aug 26, 2014 10:32 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 26, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    CE Melph NDA filing supposed to occur in Q3 & Q3 ends Sept 30. Can't be too many trading days away...Even without CE Melph, this biotech, with revenue stability and now Belinodaq contributing, is on course to do at least @$200M/Y and only has a publicly traded $500+M market cap? Incomprehensible....Utterly incomprehensible that market is so greatly and widely off on what its current valuation should be dictating.....

  • Reply to

    delusions of grandeur

    by anongram Aug 25, 2014 8:18 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 25, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    Actually, its all based on time-horizons and trading in and out doesn't always make for the best strategy. Historically, buy-and-hold has actually been the very best strategy during certain extensive periods for this biotech. For example, there are some longs here that have owned this biotech since it was trading in the lower dollar range and held it to $17, which would have been far more lucrative(had they profit-taken along the way) than trying to have frantically timed in and out of the stock on the years it ran up significantly and then took off. And if you are a regularly successful trader, your tax rate could be as high as 50% on each and every one of those short-term trades(not to mention the costs of each transaction)...Verses, the far less the cap gains garnered on massive ten-fifteen-bagger runs....AND no one makes great trades 100% of the time and its a much more time consuming activity, in general...Traders this year have indeed been lucky(because the stock hasn't been able to hold onto any of uptrend gains). That pattern should end soon...Why? Revenues are now backing up and fortifying the stock....and should continue to do such going forward(via Belinodaq & CE MELPH) and, IMO, the skies is the limit(on the stock price) on markets eventual increasing positive perceptions of SP-2012 and some of the other heavy hitters in their pipeline.....

  • Reply to

    Upcoming catalyst...

    by ouch_yikes Aug 24, 2014 8:00 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 24, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Teva's was a biosimilar. SP-2012 is not a biosimilar, hence, could potentially be considered a real competitive threat to Neulasta and one with its very own separate classification, hence, one with its own eventual pricing power...The fact that the trials on SP-2012 are of a short duration also make it extremely compelling in the near-term(as well as long-term)...The street loves getting in on the ground floor of potential blockbusters in the making and I think a SP-2012 "go" would be enough to rejuvenate the stock in a major way.... When was the last time the street completely ignored a potential blockbuster?...And when was the last potential blockbuster opportunity SPPI offered? Its been a long, long time as they have spent the better part of the last decade building their revenues up with a basket mix of niche drugs. SP-2012 could be their very first real opportunity. This one drug at least offers that in potential.....Entering into a $6B established market with a drug that may be considered a real competitive threat and sold by the same sales force that sold the original $6B drug, well, that is an extremely compelling story...usually, that is all it takes for a biotech and its stock's price to go bonkers in advance of the actual reality.....

  • ouch_yikes by ouch_yikes Aug 24, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    CE Melph NDA filing....
    Earnings(early Nov?)
    SPPI "go/no-go" decision...

    All, IMO, more than enough to take the stock up and above 52-week highs....

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 20, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    You are tossing out a lot of could's and maybe's in that post. My comments only state that the whole entire trial is lengthy(and it is): Any one particular phase trial that begins in early 2012 and officially concludes in late 2017 is indeed considered very, very lengthy, whomever was the designer of such, doesn't matter. Hell, even if they were lucky enough to file an sNDA early based on primary outcome measures, by the time of the FDA decision and then rollout, 2020 would STILL not be far away...If they can move on forward based on primary outcome measures, all the better....My only complaint is that I am not at all impressed with current MarQibo sales...If the current Philadelphia chromosome population is 1600 and the ALL population is 6000, well, even if they get an NDA on ALL, what kind of sales increase bump can be expected from the current crummy $1.4M/Q's revenues?

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 19, 2014 6:11 PM Flag

    What are you talking about? The ALL, according to clinicaltrials, is supposed to conclude @Aug. 2017 and started way back in 1H, 2012...Ridiculously lengthy, to say the least. What year do you think it might be at time of the FDA decision and roll out? Patent expires in 2020....

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 19, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    Zevalin goes off patent in 2019. And so when would have the ZEST trial concluded? This, alone, could have had a lot to do with pulling the plug...The economics do not justify an absurdly lengthy trial that concludes around the actual patent expiration point....They are better off going after the most aggressive form of NHL in ANY another way or path than an eternally lengthy, never-ending ZEST trial...Zevalin is a great drug. The numbers and stats on it are unbelievable in the strength of how effective it actually is post therapy and it would be a shame if it never even develops its own special niche...the most aggressive form of NHL

    Unfortunately, the two MARQ expansion trials appear to be ridiculously lengthy, too.... and patents on that drug aren't out all that so far either.....The trials are ridiculously long to conclusion and then it takes many more months to data mine, more months to relay results, more months to file for NDA, and then more months for FDA to arrive at a decision. I am not even getting to the months(if not years) it may take to reach peak sales before patent is already up...I really hope this biotech is bought out much sooner than even having to think about this....

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 19, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    Biotechs trade normally on, at the very, very least, ~4(X) multiple of their sales and anywhere from 8-10(X) multiple based on both the ongoing revenue run rate stream multiple AND a speculative pipeline valuation which is usually rich and high(hence, the common biotech with a $1B-$2B market multiple and no revenue coming in whatsoever and only with one flagship drug in PHASE I or II) ....This is NOT the case with SPPI, hence, this is NOT an $8 stock, this is a $15-$25 stock. This is not based on a wish, or hope, or "yeah right, pumper!", but based on very normal, publicly traded biotech market multiples inclusive of very normal pipeline valuation speculation....

    IMO, this biotech remains severely depressed and vastly undervalued as a result of its "show me" status due in large part to the CEO's previous guidance blunders and, being his being one who obviously has no intention of stepping down, so he now needs to rebuild his credibility...It ALSO doesn't help that, IMO, the BOD, in large part, has been utterly ineffectual and has not put their foot down and stood up for the shareholders at large and told him that he should be held accountable and docked in pay for the very bad stock price years in the markets. In challenging years(as seen in 2013), where the stock(hence, shareholders stakes are suffering so greatly), any CEO, let alone one with his awful fuselev guidance track record, is NOT deserving of absurd and obscene $900,000 bonuses.....

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 19, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    IMO, I am speculating that there are several numerous different types of shorts and shorting strategies that could be in play here(and one that is simply a typical MM strategy that has nothing to do with shorting, but always appears as such):
    1) Hedgies or big fundies that could be going "against the box" on their long position.......Unwinding of ALL the significant short interest could bring the stock up to fair market valuations immediately....
    2) The biotech short theory...... General theory being that the FDA does not approve too many drugs in any given year, so if you buy a basket of small biotechs with approvals coming up, you have better odds of garnering overall downside on a short bet(than choosing to bet on just one biotech) ...Its why the current big biotechs(JAZZ and QCOR, etc), at one time, when their stock was priced similar to what SPPI's is today, had huge short interest...Just an overall short-biased hedge strategy in play and its been crushed this year with all the buyouts at huge premiums, however, perhaps its why there seems to be a refusal to cover on this one(15+M shares out of 60+M total?!?!)....
    3) On a much smaller scale, Raj has had more than his fair share of bashers ever since this stock was trading under $1...These kind of small-time shorts do no damage and are about as the equivalent of the overall effect that retail longs have on the stock, but they prolly are one's who are the most vocal and post here on this message board the most frequently(as like the retail longs do, too)....
    4) Lastly, the MM's bringing the stock down, which gives off the effect of a short attack, when they are really only matching supply with demand level.....When this stock isn't under accumulation(unlike it currently appears to be right now), this tends to occur.....

  • Reply to

    Wow! Trend twin

    by caveman.smile Aug 18, 2014 10:24 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 18, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    Newer, likely imminent future revenue streams finally back up a much, much higher stock price which then leaves even greater forward optimism on: SP-2012 and their other bigger future potential revenue generators...Before, manipulation could run rampant...this is not going to be so easy with significant brand new potential revenue streams and future potential blockbusters on top of this...

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 18, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    The Belinodaq part(of the article) was way off the mark. Mr. market doesn't always get the price direction right in the near-term... The stock simply should not have dropped -25% post the approval as the drug should get pushed into the cycle of available therapies and that, at least, means up to Folotyn-like potential in a new and incurring revenue stream. Moderate success with Belinodaq alone could increase current revenues 20%, but the CE MELPH part of the article appeared, IMO, nicely and fairly accurate for a change.....

  • Reply to

    Updated Slide Kit On SPPI Website

    by rootbound43 Aug 15, 2014 10:14 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Aug 15, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Tartia, RE: CE MELPH, IMO, its prolly more an FDA thing than an SPPI thing...If you recall on the Q2 CC, they just recently went through pre-NDA meetings with the FDA which they claimed were successful. They say they are progressing, which is better than not progressing and certainly something they aren't claiming with APAZ...Better to get it right down to the core in what they(the FDA) want to see as validation for an approval(for their decision-making) the first go around then to receive an "approvable" letter later on....Also, on the Q2, CC, the Chief Medical Officer said expected filing in next months...whatever that means......APAZ in 2015, as long as its early 1H, no harm, no foul...The street no longer expects anything out of that corner of their pipeline anyway. I would venture to bet that they are still trying to come up with the most appropriate trial protocol, along with all the other things(NDA filing & medical committee) with the FDA on that drug, too. Perhaps FDA hand-holding is exactly what they need to do with that drug....I think the streets "eyes on the prize" will be on SP-2012 go/no-go anyway....

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