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Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

ouch_yikes 144 posts  |  Last Activity: 51 minutes ago Member since: Feb 23, 2005
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  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes 51 minutes ago Flag

    ......The great Ouchy called the bottom last week and he even suggested to this message board's greatest nemesis, Bioblitz, to take advantage of the greatest entry of the year....However, Bioblitz would much rather complain relentlessly about Raj than make money....

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 28, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Mainly, because along with all the "stumbles and bumbles" and misfires, the reality is that, at the end of the day, there is STILL a biotech that is throwing off ~$200M/Y in revenues(which is $200M more than they had the first day Raj arrived at Spectrum{circa 2002}) and this is because they have, in spite of what you think, made some very savvy(if unexciting) acquisitions over the last decade and these revenues should(if FDA acts favorably) only continue to grow significantly well above that quarter of a billion dollars in annual revenues amount in the coming years...You can bash Raj all you want but Fuselev was a very savvy acquisition, APAZ was acquired for all of a few hundreds of thousand and AGN was willing to commit up to $320+M towards developing it soon thereafter, the potential is still very much alive, Folotyn should provide many, many years in tens of millions of revenues, ditto for Belinodaq. MarQibo NDA expansions will be the icing on the cake when it comes to their having made many, many great acquisitions. CE Melph will likely be yet another....

    So, now the stage has been successfully set for what should be considered their very biggest era on record(2015-2020): which means essentially the successful moving of their much larger future potential revenue generators that exist in their current very late stage pipeline through to their trial conclusions...Going forward, this is going to either be a good investment... or a great one....

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 27, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Hey bioblitz, yeah the stock has pulled back to the extreme since 2012($17-to the current rubber-band mass elastic expansion point of extreme oversold: $6's, where a snap-back to somewhere in between is all but certain)...I would think if you were smart, you would be building a position(instead of giving a hoot about Caveman, who, IMO, could be really thoroughly on to something)

  • Reply to

    52-week high should soon reach 8.90

    by ouch_yikes Jan 27, 2015 11:31 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 27, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    IMO, there are a LOT of understated incidentals and THIS is where Raj has the "gotcha!" effect and it goes far, FAR beyond "the cash register is ringing" and "the best is yet to come"........So many "shots on goal" and a long and insuring via a short position BS strategy should implode as hedgies sniff this out in long favor(I will give the "hat tip" credos to Caveman and Zeus)...Retail shorts feebly latch on, their utter disdain for Raj is palpable...At this point, Raj is harmless, he can do no wrong and all the street cares about is the bottom-line: makin' bacon.....There is nothing more "forgivable" on the street than a stock that rises...

  • This is going to be one hell of a fun Q1 & Q2....SP-2012 PHASE III launch gets an 18-month tick-tock..CE Melph NDA acceptance gets 10-month tick-tock...oh, and an APAZ NDA gets a tick-tock...2017 could be "the year of Spectrum"

  • Reply to

    First Call Rating Update on Spectrum Pharmaceuticals

    by kyelion Jan 26, 2015 12:13 PM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 26, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Short-term price target of $12.67 from three analysts?

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 26, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    Actually, at this point, there is WAY too much emphasis on Raj...What could he possibly do to fudge up the future? The revenue fundamentals are ALREADY there(~$200M & a potential future ~$300M) and pipeline is bursting at the seams with potential and the market is someday going to valuate this biotech more fairly, and, should it ever receive a "sum of all parts" valuation, you will certainly regret "waiting for the CEO to resign" before "jumping in" because its not too often that a $25 stock trades under $7

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 26, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    I think that there is no question, if he were to retire, the stock would quickly move into the double-digits(maybe just on the announcement, itself!)..However, that said, the vast majority of analysts have set their conservative estimates at ~$15, which is more than 100% higher than todays current levels and with CE Melph contributing, that target needle should move above $20+...Any validation of SP-2012 could ignite this at any moment....It really is an explosive situation.....

  • Reply to

    For the record

    by bioblitz1 Jan 26, 2015 8:29 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 26, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    The future movements will be cumulative and gradual. I am not totally on board the "lack of credibility" train for this being the main reason for the biotech's stock's horrid underperformance(comparative to biotech peers)....Doctor economics should prevail and are all that really matter with Fuselev...I am actually surprised the drug doesn't do similar as its been doing in Europe(~$180M/Y) for the last decade, given all the social welfare systems... This biotech always has its loyal legion of perma-Raj bashers and FUD'sters posting FUD that never seems to become a reality....Wall Street cares about profits and growth, not much else matters....

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 26, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    The stock failed to break through the 52-week low on several occasions, retail crowd now covering...when the big money short start covering, the stock should go parabolic.....Should flexible agreement pass this year, IMO, perhaps there will be a massive unwind commencing, as they will realize no more profits to be had from their downside hedge(and potential staggering losses that could come at any moment)....The ball is actually in the both the shareholders and Spectrum's court if they wanna be seeing significant upside sooner rather than later.....

  • ouch_yikes by ouch_yikes Jan 26, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    Put in last week, with highly doubtful need for another retest...The next move now more likely towards a new 52-week high, as the old 52-week-high collapsing very, very soon.....

  • Reply to

    PE Ratio

    by joesolomon333 Jan 22, 2015 4:21 PM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 23, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    That doesn't make much sense. Its currently 2015, and one doesn't need to be a genius to be able to look all the way out to 2020(remember, all these $40M/Q cash burns are going to move those drugs in their pipeline fast forward very swiftly to their conclusions). Its easy to envision a gently upwards slope in revenues(and stock price) that turns into a hockey-stick shape as the decade concludes(along with stock price)...And that should start right now! If Fuselev patent is resolved favorably and everything ELSE remains stable, they should, with Belinodaq, naturally do an increase in revenues and be back in the profits column, then Belinodaq AND CE Melph should add a great deal of sequential and Y-O-Y percentage increase in revenues going forward which sets the stage for SP-2012, maybe APAZ contributes and Marqibo NDA's conclude and the rest of the pipeline to move them into even much higher revenues by 2018....Imagine all the possible revenues scenarios they could be doing as this decade concludes.....Nobody will be tossing up "lack of credibility" posts then.....They will be kicking themselves as to why they weren't buying when the stock was all of a trifle $6.50 a share.......

  • Reply to

    PE Ratio

    by joesolomon333 Jan 22, 2015 4:21 PM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 23, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    Hey, if FDA rules favorably in the coming years, that is certainly plausible.....Actually, with an outright CASI purchase, they wouldn't have to worry about "pre-tax" for awhile...Another thing, I'm am tossing up a wild guestimation, but, as Antihama pointed out in an earlier post, if Zev is ~$40,000 per treatment, what would garnering only 2000 patients WW bring in additional revenues? $80M...Perhaps ex-U.S. is where Zevalin finally finds its niche as a $100M/Y revenue generator

  • Reply to

    Gameplan - If so, Gameover for Short Guys

    by joesolomon333 Jan 22, 2015 11:19 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 22, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Their trading 1.5(X) book and a little more than 2(X) annual revenue run are atrocious as current biotech comparative multiples goes....AGIO has nothing more than a few drugs in PHASE 1 and yet they sport $4+B market cap..Why? CELG took a small stake in them....Perhaps the quickest way to getting much fairer valuations is someone taking a stake in SPPI....AMGN, where are you?

  • Reply to

    Roundtable Depression

    by joesolomon333 Jan 21, 2015 11:03 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 22, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    I never stated you were "an insider", that last quote is from Caveman...I think the vast majority of message board posters are small, individual retail(whether short or long), with a few small, insignificant hedge funds that rarely occasionally post here and there and professional analysts who just read the board(and don't post). I think most of the bulk of the bashers were previous longs who just simply can not let go of Raj's inept 2012 Fuselev guidance call and move on. Though, I think Raj should have been held accountable by the BOD at the time and the consequences being the cost of his position(as CEO), still, many CEO's give wrong bullish future visibility outlooks...I do think the stock is manipulated and artificially held down like a boulder(via the 30% short interest)...I am guessing they want to bring it down as low as possible, squeezing each and every last one of the retail out of their positions, before running it up so as to make huge, substantial profits on both short and long sides...And, yes, I am venturing to guess the worst(and the stock price low for the year) has been put in this week....

  • Reply to

    Roundtable Depression

    by joesolomon333 Jan 21, 2015 11:03 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 22, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    IBM took on a loan to buyback tons of their stock this year....I am not suggesting SPPI do the same, but at some point, it ought to be considered.....Assuming everything remains stable, they are a stone's throw away(a CE Melph approval) from potentially being able to do over $100+M in profits annually...at $6.50, and $100M, they could sweep clean 25% of existing float and then the EPS with the ability to continue to show $300M annually and hundreds of millions in profits, would be very impressive, stock price would skyrocket....

  • Reply to

    Why did they do the convertibles?

    by neednewceo Jan 21, 2015 5:44 PM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 22, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    The best way to look at book value and stock price is........ comparatively:

    JAZZ currently trades at 8(X) book: 22 book value...$175 stock price....SPPI trades 1.5(X) book: ~4 book value $6.60 stock price.... On par with similar oncology peer JAZZ..SPPI at 8(X) book is ~$32

    Even AMGN, which is a behemoth and seen 25 years of mega-growth still has roughly a 5(X) book, which, comparatively speaking, would give SPPI a ~$20......

    PCYC currently has 16(X)..which would print a $64 price on SPPI.....

    I guess you are now starting to warm up to the "pump dudes" ideas of more fairer valuations much deserved to this stock, the Rodney Dangerfield of ALL biotechs.....

  • Reply to

    Roundtable Depression

    by joesolomon333 Jan 21, 2015 11:03 AM
    ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 21, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    Funny, you weren't on this message board repeatedly showing how reprehensible it was to be bashing this stock, when it went from ~$1.80 Oct 31, 2008 to ~$17 July 1, 2012, three & half years later....or was it because you were bashing back then, too? This biotech and its stock price sees good times and bad times, but I would venture to guess, the bad times(given its been nearly three years already) are coming to an end....

  • ouch_yikes ouch_yikes Jan 21, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    China has a rising middle class that is growing and with that growth are also rising incomes. There are currently more Chinese millionaires than ever, which means more trickle down spending power then ever....Its not to be underestimated. Hong Kong will be a great microcosm to see overall strength in demand for the drug for the Far East overall...

  • ouch_yikes by ouch_yikes Jan 21, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    BOTH are cancer biotechs. In fact, involved in hematology..AGIO has very little in way of showing any revenues and no drug higher than in PHASE I trials, yet a market cap worth $4.5B....and everyone that follows SPPI knows all that it has going on in very, very late stages, PLUS $147M in cash PLUS a stable $200M/Y run rate, PLUS future revenues likely increasing substantially above this level in coming years ahead...and a market cap worth $430M?

    You can't make this stuff up.....This has to be one of the worst ever biotech abnormalities on record....So much for rising tides lifting all boats......

SPPI
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