I word is that this new king was running the Saudis government for sometimes. The old king was in and out of hospital several times. The expectation is for little changes! This new king is 78 years old, he is interim none the less.
Refiners make their profit based on the Crack Spread. The refining expenses do not change. The retail price goes down with the WTI price. The retail price lags the WTI, so better deal for the refiners. I have the average Crack for the last 12 month at $7.73. The Crack between November 14 and January 15 at $7.03. Do not look for a $1.40 distribution, my guess $0.60 tops.
I realize the contentious is that the Saudis are after the US shale production. This is the cherry on top of the cake. The only power the Saudis have to offer is the amount of production they are able to muster. Should or when Iran gets the bomb, the threat of the bomb will take any leverage the Saudis have on the price. The Saudis have shown responsibility in controlling the crude price. Iran has a totally different intention. The underlining war is religious, the more belligerent is Iran. It will not be putty once Iran has the bomb! Happily we have shale and plenty of it!
The R&R cost is dictated not only by the oil or LPG used. The insurance cost is substantial. More are the risks higher the insurance. You have the R&R tank car leasing cost. The new regulations will increase this cost a lot. Berkshare is making a killing, with the R&R and in insurance??
Obama is not working in “concert” with the Saudis. Obama is very happy to do what he does well, be on vacation and blowing hot air. Yes the Saudis are after Iran, the Saudis do not want to lose any leverage over OPEC. The threat of an atomic bomb would be the end of the Saudis controlling OPEC. The Saudis have been somewhat responsible in pricing the crude. Iran has a totally different point of view, Iran wanted all, stock and barrels.
Russia is on the wrong side of the politic, Putin want “absolutely” a naval base outside the Blank Sea, he has it in Syria. Putin wants to control the Russian interest with his naval power. That is what he believes, he is paranoiac.
Venezuela etc. will default or will devalue their currency at will. Be prepared for a very strong dollar! The Saudis have coupled the ounce of gold to 15 barrels of crude, since Nixon decouples the dollar with the gold. This last Friday, 1 ounce of gold fetched 24 barrels of crude. We have to view gold has the refuge currency again, even though no one wants to admitted it.
Your forecast distribution is extremely speculative. Assuming a 40% expenses and taxes, 18 400 000 outstanding units, and an average production of 400 000 BOE per Q. $0.16 distribution means the sale price per BOE to be $12.00. I realize that working with BOE is tenuous, none the less $12.00 appears to be way low. The general view is that the market tend to view things 4 to 6 month ahead. $12.00 in 6 month would bankrupt not only O&G countries but nations like Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria and many more! Can WHZ just stop producing, impossible, the cost of producing again would be a none starter. WHZ will not increase in new wells, so the production will drop 15% in 2015. Still OK.
Below a simple of forecast distribution per probable index price:
The average left production per quarter is 400 000 BOE. The average WHZ expenses per quarter is 40% of the gross sales, outstanding units 18 400 000. Index price at:
1. (($25 X 400 000) X 0.60)/18 400 000 = $0.33 per unit
2. (($30 X 400 000) X 0.60)/18 400 000 = $0.39 per unit
3. (($40 X 400 000) X 0.60)/18 400 000 = $0.52 per unit
4. (($50 X 400 000) X 0.60)/18 400 000 = $0.65 per unit
5. (($60 X 400 000) X 0.60)/18 400 000 = $0.78 per unit
Last Friday 1/2/2015 the WTI index was $53.45 per barrel. Discount $10.00 per barrel to get a realistic BOE. Using $43.45 BOE the distribution would be $0.57 per unit. This forecast distribution, assuming there is no shutdown and all wells produce as plan, is acceptable. This represents practically half the previous distribution. On the other hand, so are all the O&G USRT. Still WHZ is undervalued and negative speculation has taken the USRT space.
Should the Index price stay in the low $40s or even $50s for long I see a worldwide substantial monetary devaluation. It has started, the 15 barrels of oil per 1 ounce of gold, the standard since the dollar decouples from the gold, is today 22 barrels per 1 ounce of gold. The gold is down as well, $1268 average for 2014, it was $1379 high in 2014.
To find the value of an USRT is as follow:
Find the IPO declared maximum production or date, In the case of WHZ the max production is 11 790 000 BOE. Find the total amount of production so far: 4 585 505 BOE. What is left to be produced is 7 204 495 BOE. There are 18 400 000 units outstanding.
You have to understand that the value of an USRT is the amount of crude, NG or NGL left to be produced. This amount will be depleted every quarter by the amount produced.
The value of WHZ is the amount to be produced multiplied by the index price or the leverage price.
7 204 495 X $40 per BOE divided 18 400 000 = $6.98 per unit.
7 204 495 X $45 per BOE divided by 18 400 000 = $7.85 per units
You can change the index price at will; you get the value of what is left to be produced.
You can figure out the projected distribution by multiplying the future production by the index price minus the expenses and taxes. This is really where the discussion is, add the discussion the speculation and you have an answer. Today WHZ price reflect a $34.00 or $5.93. Therefore I believe WHZ to be undervalued.
Salut Mec! I believe strongly that we should not look at how low the price of oil will be. My question is who can follow the Saudis policy of low prices. Those not able to feed their budgets with oil dollars have two possibilities: 1. going bankrupt, the like of Venezuela comes to mind. 2. Devalue their currency, Nigeria has. Those outside OPEC have the same problems, Russia comes to mind.
In the US we will see few M&A, which will be healthy. The majors will not be hurt; few are reorganizing their asset with a bigger US foot print. This will lower the exchange rate risks. I believe the US will allow oil export, if not near term, after 2016 for sure. This will be a bonanza for US producers.
This is the time to pick and choose who you want to buy. My belief is that buying overseas assets will be buying substantial strong devaluations risks, which includes high taxes. The dollar will get stronger; the FED will withdraw dollars out of circulation and will increase interest rates. We saw this movie in the 70s under Carter! To see the dollar versus crude price differential, look at the price of gold. One ounce of gold has on average, since Nixon, been 15 barrels of oil. Last time it was 15 was last November, today gold is 20 times crude oil. The Saudis do not like this; they are losing quite a bit!
Romney could have been a good president. Unfortunately he did not want to fight for his convictions. In other words he was too nice of a guy. Democrats live their politics in your face. Republicans need to show a difference, nice guys finish last. Being qualified is not enough, statesmanship is paramount. Roughing fathers is a good attribute. The forthcoming Republican primaries will be interesting. More than a few qualified candidate, who will stand out is open for debate.
It appears to me that MVO traders are reacting to the general view that the index price is going bobo. Looking at MVO rationally MVO is a descent Trust:
MVO has 11 500 000 units, at IPO it declared a reserve of 18 500 000 BOE. The date of the IPO was 13 February 2007 or 31.4 quarters ago. The average quarterly production is 210 000 BOE. MVO has produced 6 603 000 BOE out of the declared 18 500 00 BOE. This means we are not at 50% of the projected production. The expenses shown on the K8 report are 41% of the gross earnings from the sales. My unit value of MVO is (this value is for this quarter, as next quarter the reserve will have been depleted by another 210 000 BOE):
Index price of $40.00 = $25.67, or $60.00 = $38.50.
It appears to me that the speculators are off by $10.00. Another observation is that MVO uses production sales 30 days prior Xdate. The 30 days are used to close the books on this quarter. On September 10 the WTI was at $92.73, the Brent at $98.23. On December 10 the WTI was at $63.74, the Brent $66.11. These prices should fetch a descent distribution, for this quarter Xdate 10 January 2015.
Using BOE and substracting the amount produced from the total stated production, WHZ has 4.585.500 BOE left to be produced. Multiplying this by the index price of $50 per BOE I get $8.72 per unit net (I took a 30% expenses and taxes etc..) With an index price of $80.00 per BOE I get $13.96. This is a ball park as there are too many unknown. These prices are not the distribution, just the estimated value left to be produced.
Using the last K8 numbers but a $60 average BOE price, I came up with $0.59 per unit. I expect distribution from $0.50 to $0.59. That what we can expect of all USRT.
No the Obama is happy of sort, but has nothing to do with the price cut. The Saudis have 2 goals: 1. weaken Russia and Iran that are on the wrong side of the Islamic world. The Saudis are the guarantors of the Muslim world, the Sunni Muslim world. 2. The Saudis do not mind giving a hard time to the US.
Should Iran win the nuclear battle, the Saudis have lost all leverage within OPEC. The Russians want to keep that naval base in Syria, if not the Russian navy can only be in the Black sea, and in the North Pacific, Vladivostok. The Arctic sea naval bases are locked in by ice 5 months a year.
All US Royal Trust run on auto pilot. The decision are made by the owner/operator which transfer the agreed portion of the profits to the trusties for distribution.
You are saying that Majors prices are 6 month ahead of the crude index prices. That is the general view of the market. I am having a hard time believing that several OPEC members will go belly up if the crude prices do not go back to high 70s soon. Many none and OPEC cannot live with $70 Brent, they need $100. I can see a massive devaluation as the one Russia had a couple of days ago. Nigeria has already devalued their currency. This will make the dollar very high, good for China and Japan that own billions of dollars. As for us???
I don't have the complete list of XLE investment. All I can say is that since August I XOM is down 10% CVX 17%, I believe we are down substantially. The majors are not down any where as the less known O&G equities. We are close to bottom. Some nationalized O&G companies are going to force their government to belly up. Venezuela, Russia, Iran are close. Nigeria has devalued their currency all ready. I still believe by Q2 2015 things will pick up. Patience is the order of the day!