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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

ousaouparis 36 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Mar 19, 2010
  • ousaouparis by ousaouparis 10 hours ago Flag

    Q2 will be $1.02 down $0.06, from Q1 was $1.08. Cannot see anything wrong with this? Still above $1.00??

  • ousaouparis by ousaouparis 10 hours ago Flag

    ALDW Q2 distribution will be $0.78. Bits previous Q1 by $0.07. ($0.71) Nothing wrong with this??

  • Reply to

    300% - 1,000% sales growth??

    by zzg123 Jul 29, 2015 12:43 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis 14 hours ago Flag

    These number are OK. Most of the sold Excelyte is really water. The added value of Excelyte is a fraction of a dollar. In the areas where IEVM is active, water is not readily available and has to be transported. So Excelyte benefit is in the alternative cost. My guess the savings to the E&P are substantial. Just to be able to decontaminate the returned mud for ecologic disposal is a big plus. From memories, we had to store return mud, mostly silts and sand, in barrels and ship them on shore for disposal. Costly deal?

  • Reply to

    Vunerable Company -Just one refinery

    by barebuttbob Jul 30, 2015 11:16 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis 17 hours ago Flag

    When looking at refineries, the word is location, location, location. Looking at the GOM refineries: The US refinery capacity is 18 MMb/d. About 9.26 MMb/d (or just over half) of this primary refining capacity is located within Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 3 (the Gulf Coast), with the vast majority of PADD 3’s capacity sited in either Texas (5.23 MMb/d) or Louisiana (3.23 MMb/d).
    The US crude oil production is more than the refineries capacity. The GOM storage capacity cannot handle the production. The pipeline throughput is too small to handle all the production from as far has North Dakota. The refineries on the shores of the GOM cannot handle all the crude oil produced. The crude oil producers have to wait for GOM storage to be available and wait for pipeline throughput to be available.
    Therefore the refineries not located on the GOM can take advantage of discounts. NTI, CVRR and ALDW in particular are well located, and have their own retail network to sale their production at a good enhanced crack spread. To make things even better, these refineries can use WTI or WTS. The GOM refineries were pushing their production for diesel export to South America. That business is drying up. The price of diesel is $1.53, down $0.40. Therefore location, location, location is the game to play.

  • Reply to

    NTI Twice Likely to go bankrupt than CVRR

    by ratfinkboy Aug 2, 2015 7:28 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Aug 2, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    Refineries will not go broke, producers will. As long as you buy diesel or gasoline, refineries will be around! May be Uncle Obama will force you to walk, to save the climate, than refineries will have a problem!

  • ousaouparis by ousaouparis Aug 2, 2015 6:12 AM Flag

    The O&G industry is made of several sub specialties, WHZ is on the producer side. The purpose of the crude oil crash is to eliminate any un-economic crude oil production. My research shows that crude oil priced at $54.73, a $1 billion project means that the crude oil must be at least $33.00 for the project to be amortized in 25 years, or a 46% differential between the cost of producing and the daily crude price. This represents the standard way of managing a production field. The Saudis have oil fields producing for more than 25 years. Their cost is less than $20 per barrel.
    The cost of producing shale fracking oil is more expensive. To keep producing you must keep on drilling. Keeping drilling means to keep the IP production with new wells. Drilling is much more costly than controlling the wellhead pressure. Stopping drilling means EUR production, 50% or less than IP production.
    O&G producers are not the money makers they were prior the crash. On the other hand, refiners work on the crack spread, they will keep on making money. The percent profit will go down according to the price of crude and the pump retail prices. But none the less, refiners will make a profit.

  • ousaouparis by ousaouparis Aug 2, 2015 5:42 AM Flag

    In February 2009 MSB was in the high $6.00. 6 month later MSB started to move and was in the high $11.00. By the time the Soo lock open in March 2010 MSB was $22.00. In December 2010 MSB was $56.44. This huge bump was accomplished when the Singapore iron ore index came to being. 9 month latter MSB was back down to the $20s. In January 2011 MSB was up again in the $30s. The October 26 2011 with a distribution of $1.10 MSB was still hovering in the high $20s. The April 26 2013 the distribution was $0.08 and MSB was hovering in the low $20s. I lost interest in late 2013.
    The principal problem with MSB is the mine location. MSB can only deliver iron ore in the Great Lakes area. MSB cannot compete on the world export market. The cost of going through the Saint Laurent is prohibitive. Because of the Saint Laurent draft limitation, the iron ore must be trans-boarded onto larger ships, an additional cost. The steel Mills located in the Great Lakes are the only market for MSB iron ore. In one of my previous post I related the San Francisco Bay Bridge usage of Chinese still finished and ready to be installed. California is not a Right to Work state so the cost of union labor made the American produced steel not competitive. From memory the saving in using Chinese steel was in the 30% range. MSB will hover in the $10s until the Great Lakes region economy rebound. The auto industry is very important to the steel industry. Dodge is using aluminum instead of steel. That does not go well with iron ore demand. I enjoy MSB although I really did not make the profit I do with the O&G equities.

  • Reply to

    Price Too High for New Money Here

    by trumpmyman Jul 31, 2015 4:26 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Aug 2, 2015 1:12 AM Flag

    NTI is $25, CVRR is $20.69, HFC $48.26. Cannot compare the CVRR management with NTI or better ALDW. The 11% drop of ALDW was an frisk automatic computerized trading. The new way to trade by the big boys. We just have to have no nerve! And put up with it or trade treasury notes??

  • Reply to

    Vunerable Company -Just one refinery

    by barebuttbob Jul 30, 2015 11:16 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 31, 2015 7:59 AM Flag

    I have the next distribution at $1.00 minimum! could be $1.25 max??!!

  • Reply to

    Don't Forget the Annual 'Turn Around' Shutdown

    by bareassbob Jul 27, 2015 9:40 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 28, 2015 5:29 AM Flag

    You are right on. I no longer keep any stock over 1 quarter, if that!!

  • Reply to

    Price Recovery Prospect

    by mexcom Jul 23, 2015 8:53 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 28, 2015 5:24 AM Flag

    Right on, you do know how to read English???

  • Reply to

    Don't Forget the Annual 'Turn Around' Shutdown

    by bareassbob Jul 27, 2015 9:40 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 27, 2015 10:20 PM Flag

    There was a 30 days turnaround that not only was maintenance but was also to modify the Big Spring refinery process, not too long ago. Today Big Spring can process the no spec WTI as well as WTS. I do not believe in a turnaround in the middle of the summer season.
    The Xdate should be August 14. The data used for this distribution is closed 30 days before Xdate. It does take time to prepare the K8 required and it publication 8 days, or so, before Xdate.
    Some believe that this market does not behave as in past years. Not too long ago the average owner of stock would keep it 6 years. Today it is more like 6 month. This is why this market is so volatile. I still believe in a $1.00 distribution give or take 10 cents. This market requires to have more and more nerves!!

  • Reply to

    why the big drop today?

    by lososos Jul 27, 2015 12:35 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 27, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    My only explanation is the program sales based on percent drop. We are 45 minutes before closing passed the 10% drop. Many will sale regardless! It will be an interesting 2 weeks before Xdate!

  • Reply to

    why the big drop today?

    by lososos Jul 27, 2015 12:35 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 27, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    The moving average today is 280,000 units or roughly 2 times the 10 days moving average, 152,000. A fire would produce this drop. I cannot find any news on a fire. The driving season is going full bore, should not be a negative? Just need some news so far 11% drop! That is extreme??

  • Reply to

    Price Recovery Prospect

    by mexcom Jul 23, 2015 8:53 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 27, 2015 8:25 AM Flag

    MSB is locked in providing iron ore to the great lakes. Unless steel billets are imported and shipped to the Great Lake area at a price advantage, MSB will be competitive.
    US steel is not competitive when the finish steel is made with US labor. The example is the San Francisco bay bridge. The steel was Chinese and was shipped to San Francisco ready to install. The US labor which was union, was kept at minimum.
    This situation is particularly true on all US Coastal area. Inland and particularly great lakes, US steel can compete even with union labor. The transport is the added cost that is in favor of US steel therefore MSB iron ore.
    The largest importer of iron ore is China. China economy is on a down spin. Iron ore competition has to be first from Brazil for the East Coast and GOM. Australia as to be the competition for the West Coast. Getting imported iron ore to the Great Lakes must pass by the St Laurent. Expensive proposition.
    MSB may be up the 10%, especially since the Locke is open!

  • Reply to

    What's up?

    by goto_gofer Jul 16, 2015 11:08 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 27, 2015 6:30 AM Flag

    The UBTI applies to the distribution only. Do not take the distribution and take the unit bump before Xdate. You are not subject to the UBTI. That is what I do; I time my purchases and sale when the bump equals the distribution. So far so good, it took me sometime before I understood all the intricacy of MLPs. You know that on Xdate the unit price will drop the distribution amount. Therefore the next Xdate will have gone up the distribution, unless the market goes south.

  • Reply to

    What's up?

    by goto_gofer Jul 16, 2015 11:08 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 26, 2015 8:13 AM Flag

    MLPs in an IRA or 401K are OK. You are not taxes as long as your income does not exceed the IRS taxable table. You have to add the distribution you take off your IRA or 401K to your income. The total is taxed as per the IRS table.
    I am more than 70, so I have to take a distribution. I still do not go over the minimum tax. So I am tax free! Not complicated really.

  • Reply to

    Still rosy

    by bzusa6 Jul 23, 2015 9:54 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 24, 2015 6:28 AM Flag

    The crack spread value used for Q2 distribution was stopped around 30 days before Xdate. The final date I used for Q2 was July 14 and the crack was $17.01. It takes time to process all the data get it approved by the BOD and get it publish 7 days before the Xdate. So 30 days before the Xdate is OK.
    I had Q1 at $12.87. The future Q3 crack spread, so far is $21.32. I follow NTI, ALDW and CVRR and all are in the twenties so far for Q3. By the way, I use the 3.2.1. Crack Spread published by the EIA every day.

  • ousaouparis by ousaouparis Jul 23, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    Sound like IEVM has finally hired an O&G experience individual as sales manager. This means that Excelyte will be the center piece in the marketing strategy.
    O&G business is a closed in society, many CEOs are alumni of a few universities. The line managers know each other’s or know of each other’s. The drilling business is the same, closed in society.
    Also, looks like the 200,000 new shares have been sold. The volume has been high this week! May be we will see an bounce back to $.08 soon.

  • Reply to

    Why so cheap?

    by rt_invest Jul 16, 2015 10:45 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jul 23, 2015 3:58 AM Flag

    You are right!