You are right MSB sales only to the great lake area. The cost of getting the ore through the ST Laurent is too expensive. MSB market is the steel mills around the great lakes. Do not forget that the new San Francisco bay bridge was made from Chinese steel?? Chinese our comes from Australia, Brasil but little from the US. That does it??
ALDW is a MLP who’s only assets are the Big Spring refinery and the 7 Eleven stores. ALDW is own by ALJ which own and operate other refineries in Louisiana and California. ALJ is Alon USA who’s minority partner is Alon Israel, ALJ is 48% own by Alon Israel and 52% Alon USA. I understand that Alon Israel give up the majority control not too long ago. I have to assume that Alon USA owners are different than Alon Israel or Alon Israel would be majority owner.
Delek want to buy Alon Israel, therefore Delek would be the minority 48% owner. Delek will replace the Alon Israel board members, therefore, pure speculation, the assets of ALDW MLP may change by adding another refinery to the assets of ALDW. This will add refined products to the existing 73,000 barrel per month. Refineries profits are based on the Crack Spread. By enlarge AJL refineries are inland and well placed to take advantage of the crude discounts, except the Bakersfield CA refinery which get its crude from the West Coast Alaska crude or imports. Adding assets to ALDW may not be that bad of a deal, expect for CA refinery.
You are investing in the wrong equity. MLP assets can be changed anytime as long as the BOD say so. On the other hand a US Royal Trust can not be changed altered for the life of the trust.
ALDW assets is the Big Spring refinery, adding another refinery would lower the probability that both refineries would shut down because of fire. The turn around would not necessary be on the same quarter. So it may be a positive on the distribution.
XOM is a very well managed corporation. Looking at the O&G sector crude oil is the leader because history says it has to be. XOM took the view that NG was a good second. Until XOM merged with Mobil, XOM had no NG assets to speak of.
It is interesting to analyses the reserve replacement of XOM, NG constitutes the majority replacement, and crude oil is second. XOM is more and more involved in NG than ever. Looking at the O&G world market, crude oil is controlled by nationalized companies politically motivated. Most players in the crude oil side must JV to get access. On the other hand, NG can be accessed with better terms, with more freedom. The NG market requires huge capital to bring it to market in the form of LNG, CNG or LPG, XOM has this capital.
The O&G private sector is slowly moving toward NG. Several reasons are in the works: Pollution is big, price is another and availability in your face. The down side, so far, is the NG infrastructures and applications, it is in the works. It took 7 years for trucking to go from gasoline to diesel; we are within these 7 years. XOM does not own the majority of the XOM service stations. It produces and is the wholesaler. XOM has managed to be polyvalent without fanfare. XOM is the best managed major hand down, and may surprise everyone. Crude oil may not be what XOM is looking at!
The dollar is strengthening at a faster rate, 4% in the last 4 trading days, and 23% in the last 12 month. Strong dollar is negative for exports. The Europeans are desperate to see their economy moving.
For us, I still believe the crack spread is the money maker. The gulf coast refineries that export distillate products will be hurt. ALDW does not export, too far from the gulf coast. If the dollar continue to strengthen what will happen to contango. My research shows that the crude oil March 2016 is $60 plus. The import crude oil at $60 is really $45 if the dollar is 25% higher. Should contango vanish, the discount at Cushing or the Gulf Coast will be favorable to ALDW.
So far the Crack Spread from March 15, 2015 through to day is $18.22 average. I am using the 3-2-1 Crack with the index prices. ALDW is getting discount prices on the WTI and the WTS. I am optimistic for a good quarter.
Refineries live on the crack spread. ALDW is located in Big Spring, north of Austin. Early in the quarter (12 Jan 2015 through 13 March 2015) the crack spread was down to $4.40. At that time plenty storage was available on the gulf coast. Today contango is taking place, and the gulf coast storage is getting full. Contango is also taking place in Cushing, 2MMBbl since January. ALDW is well placed to buy crude; WTI or WTS at discount prices. I track the crack spread (3, 2, 1) today at $16.80 and for 2015, $11.42. ALDW crude discount has to bring ALDW crack spread around $20.00 or more.
My only concern with refineries, especially a single refinery is a shut down for a fire or whatever. ALDW is getting pricy; it is $2.04 from the 52 week high! With 57 days to Xdate, I expect volatility. ALDW is a very good MLP, I will wait to buy.
Nothing new! Sometimes ago the amount of Texas NG going to the North East was bumped by the Marcellus NG. Texas NG found Mexico as the new client. The Marcellus NG will be competing with Texas for the Florida NG. I hope that all these new LNG trains on the GOM will become Texas clients. This is good news for Texas NG.
Marcellus is the NG that has stopped the NG from Texas to go to the North East. The Texas NG redirected the NG from the Permian basin to Mexico. This Mexican revitalization policy had perfect timing. That is all I was saying!
I understand the meaning of Xdate as the last day you have to buy to make the 3 open days. I count the days and sale 2 or 3 days before Xdate. I seldom take the distribution, I am interested in the pre Xdate bump. Take too long to recover the Xdate distribution loss. It takes me 3 days to clear the sale and buy something else.
Yahoo is a better deal than Google. Yahoo upgrade the daily closing every day after 9 PM ET. Google only quote weekly closing. Yahoo has rules but by enlarge there OK.
It does take time to dispose of 56 million shares. I guess the market is saturated with XOM shares. None the less it is only 1.2% of the outstanding shares. Compare XOM volatility with CVX and APA, the outstanding shares of CVX is half that of XOM and APA 1/3 that of XOM. This is the reason XOM does not have nearly the volatility of CVX and APA. OXM will do well; they may be buying back their own share for that matter. Look at it this way; should XOM buy back the 56 million shares, XOM would save $38,640,000.00 of dividend in Q3 so it would really cost XOM $17,360,000 to buy them. I am not worry!
Having worked in the O&G drilling business for 30 years, at SEDCO now Transocean and ESV, Noble I can attest that H2S is a prime concern. OSHA safety requirements are extremely costly. When I read an article on RigZone 9 month ago I figure out that it was a no brainer. Naturally to put your foot in the door requires time and successful treatments.
When IEVM will become established in the O&G sector they IEVM Excelyte will be the insider that is called to SOLVE the problem. That takes time, but then cost is immaterial, result is what count. My guess is that on the company drilling team, there is already a mud engineer that usually works for the mud additives sub-contractor. Just to make sure H2S is under control, an Excelyte representative will be added. The oil company that contract drilling does not want any disruption in the drilling. The cost of having to stop drilling to fix a problem is very expensive, so $1000 per day for a H2S expect is nothing. In the offshore side of drilling, been idle cost 100s of thousands of dollar. He will probably seat on his duff all day for days, but should any H2S appears, he will work 24 hours a day until the problem is resolved. That is what drilling is about, great business to be in. It has been good to me. I am retired and enjoy that too.
Yes it is over! I wanted to experience the end of a trust. It is done, it showed me the regulation that applies. WHX was a good deal, I last traded WHX the spring 2013. Will Whitting start another US Royal Trust?
I had the same problem trying to figure out the Xdate for ALDW. The definition of the Xdate is 3 business days before the “stockholders of record”. It takes 3 days business days for a trade to be finalized. In order for the trader to qualify for the distribution the last day he must buy ALDW is 3 days before the stockholders of record. In this case the stockholders of record on February 17, 2015. So February 12, 2015 is the Xdate. Weekends and holidays do not count as business days. So next Thursday 12 at the closing you must buy ALDW to be the owner on the Tuesday 17 February. You will find out that on Xdate the amount of the distribution will be deducted from the posted unit value.
You can make a profit with contango. The forward crude price for February 2016 is $60. Storage fees and pipeline fees paid the profit per barrel can be $1.25/$1.50. This why the storage in Cushing OK is up 2MMbarrel since January 1 2015.
When the value of crude oil ditch as is the case, the profit will follow. The Crack Spread is down therefore the total value of profit is down as well. The profit as percent is approximately the same, the dollar value is down. Psychologically dollar down you sale, it is a natural reaction. I look at the alternative, Refiners are better placed to make a profit then the producers. The refiners cost to produce refined product does not change, it is just that they buy crude at a lower price and sale the refined product lower as well. I mainly deal with O&G so the whole sector has the same problem. As such ALDW is a good MLP as compared with the competition. So far I am doing OK!
This board becomes active if 30 days before Xdate. MVO is a producer and with the index price dumping, producers are at a disadvantage. Sale requires fracking and fracking requires drilling. Drilling is costly so only the sweet spots are worth while. Meaning must have a super IP. So refiners are a better deal right now. I believe we have reached the bottom, contango has started, the 12 month forward price is $60. We will see lots of volatility.
It is tru in that the 1 for 2 happen before the merger of ARP by TRGP. This merger is a complicated deal that has many tentacles. The bottom line is that ATLS will continue to be listed and ARP should disappear, so I believe but than who know!!!??
Last year ALDW had a lengthy turn around; ALDW added some equipment to be able to process WTS as well as WTI. This new equipment has increased the refinery through put. I believe the 2015 turn around will be short.
Should the Cushing as well as the GOM storage become full, ALDW is well placed to take advantage of good discounts. The price of distillates is based on GOM refineries. Therefore the feed stock in Cushing Midland will probably be very good. So Far ALDW Q1 2015 the Crack Spread is $19.62. Q4 2014 the crack spread barely made $10.00. These 2 crack spreads are standard 3-2-1 WTI. I am sure ALDW bought at discount.