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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

ousaouparis 51 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Mar 19, 2010
  • Reply to

    Cost basis $91 is it worth averaging down here...

    by jrgorel Dec 23, 2014 9:15 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis 6 hours ago Flag

    Salut Mec! I believe strongly that we should not look at how low the price of oil will be. My question is who can follow the Saudis policy of low prices. Those not able to feed their budgets with oil dollars have two possibilities: 1. going bankrupt, the like of Venezuela comes to mind. 2. Devalue their currency, Nigeria has. Those outside OPEC have the same problems, Russia comes to mind.
    In the US we will see few M&A, which will be healthy. The majors will not be hurt; few are reorganizing their asset with a bigger US foot print. This will lower the exchange rate risks. I believe the US will allow oil export, if not near term, after 2016 for sure. This will be a bonanza for US producers.
    This is the time to pick and choose who you want to buy. My belief is that buying overseas assets will be buying substantial strong devaluations risks, which includes high taxes. The dollar will get stronger; the FED will withdraw dollars out of circulation and will increase interest rates. We saw this movie in the 70s under Carter! To see the dollar versus crude price differential, look at the price of gold. One ounce of gold has on average, since Nixon, been 15 barrels of oil. Last time it was 15 was last November, today gold is 20 times crude oil. The Saudis do not like this; they are losing quite a bit!

  • Reply to

    Ot-Midterm Elections

    by shaasgo Nov 5, 2014 2:38 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 23, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    Romney could have been a good president. Unfortunately he did not want to fight for his convictions. In other words he was too nice of a guy. Democrats live their politics in your face. Republicans need to show a difference, nice guys finish last. Being qualified is not enough, statesmanship is paramount. Roughing fathers is a good attribute. The forthcoming Republican primaries will be interesting. More than a few qualified candidate, who will stand out is open for debate.

  • Reply to

    My feeling here…..

    by marvinglickstein Nov 30, 2014 3:11 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 22, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    It appears to me that MVO traders are reacting to the general view that the index price is going bobo. Looking at MVO rationally MVO is a descent Trust:
    MVO has 11 500 000 units, at IPO it declared a reserve of 18 500 000 BOE. The date of the IPO was 13 February 2007 or 31.4 quarters ago. The average quarterly production is 210 000 BOE. MVO has produced 6 603 000 BOE out of the declared 18 500 00 BOE. This means we are not at 50% of the projected production. The expenses shown on the K8 report are 41% of the gross earnings from the sales. My unit value of MVO is (this value is for this quarter, as next quarter the reserve will have been depleted by another 210 000 BOE):
    Index price of $40.00 = $25.67, or $60.00 = $38.50.
    It appears to me that the speculators are off by $10.00. Another observation is that MVO uses production sales 30 days prior Xdate. The 30 days are used to close the books on this quarter. On September 10 the WTI was at $92.73, the Brent at $98.23. On December 10 the WTI was at $63.74, the Brent $66.11. These prices should fetch a descent distribution, for this quarter Xdate 10 January 2015.

  • Reply to

    total return

    by imatwatch Dec 19, 2014 3:40 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 20, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    Using BOE and substracting the amount produced from the total stated production, WHZ has 4.585.500 BOE left to be produced. Multiplying this by the index price of $50 per BOE I get $8.72 per unit net (I took a 30% expenses and taxes etc..) With an index price of $80.00 per BOE I get $13.96. This is a ball park as there are too many unknown. These prices are not the distribution, just the estimated value left to be produced.

  • ousaouparis by ousaouparis Dec 19, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    Using the last K8 numbers but a $60 average BOE price, I came up with $0.59 per unit. I expect distribution from $0.50 to $0.59. That what we can expect of all USRT.

  • Reply to

    $11 coming

    by irvingjewstein Dec 15, 2014 10:57 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 19, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    No the Obama is happy of sort, but has nothing to do with the price cut. The Saudis have 2 goals: 1. weaken Russia and Iran that are on the wrong side of the Islamic world. The Saudis are the guarantors of the Muslim world, the Sunni Muslim world. 2. The Saudis do not mind giving a hard time to the US.
    Should Iran win the nuclear battle, the Saudis have lost all leverage within OPEC. The Russians want to keep that naval base in Syria, if not the Russian navy can only be in the Black sea, and in the North Pacific, Vladivostok. The Arctic sea naval bases are locked in by ice 5 months a year.

  • Reply to

    As a Trust...No Hedging

    by barebuttbob2014 Dec 16, 2014 2:52 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 19, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    All US Royal Trust run on auto pilot. The decision are made by the owner/operator which transfer the agreed portion of the profits to the trusties for distribution.

  • Reply to

    Why we are up today?

    by davidr8909 Dec 16, 2014 11:10 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 18, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    You are saying that Majors prices are 6 month ahead of the crude index prices. That is the general view of the market. I am having a hard time believing that several OPEC members will go belly up if the crude prices do not go back to high 70s soon. Many none and OPEC cannot live with $70 Brent, they need $100. I can see a massive devaluation as the one Russia had a couple of days ago. Nigeria has already devalued their currency. This will make the dollar very high, good for China and Japan that own billions of dollars. As for us???

  • Reply to

    Why we are up today?

    by davidr8909 Dec 16, 2014 11:10 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 17, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    I don't have the complete list of XLE investment. All I can say is that since August I XOM is down 10% CVX 17%, I believe we are down substantially. The majors are not down any where as the less known O&G equities. We are close to bottom. Some nationalized O&G companies are going to force their government to belly up. Venezuela, Russia, Iran are close. Nigeria has devalued their currency all ready. I still believe by Q2 2015 things will pick up. Patience is the order of the day!

  • Reply to

    4.44% Div in January @ $15.30 price

    by irvingjewstein Dec 8, 2014 11:20 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 15, 2014 6:58 AM Flag

    I believe the crash in oil prices we see today is primarily a religious war. Should Iran get the bomb, the Saudis will lose any leverage within OPEC to Iran and the Shea side of the Islamic world. The Saudis believe themselves to be the guarantor of the Muslim faith. So for the Saudis it is a big deal. The Russians are on the wrong side, what they want is to keep this naval base on the Mediterranean sea, their only one outside the Black Sea, the others are in the North Pacific and the Arctic see. The US shale producer price lose is a collateral event. Several members of OPEC will not be able to follow for long: Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela the most vulnerable. Several none OPEC are all ready hurt: Russia first, Mexico and Brazil are not far behind. For us watch for lots of M&A.

  • Reply to

    Oil now is $69, why XLE still down?

    by daytraderingreen Dec 1, 2014 2:17 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 14, 2014 7:37 AM Flag

    The question is, how long will the price will dip. Second Q 2015 should see some rally. Some of the OPEC members will start to have social problems: Nigeria, Iran, in particular. Russia as well, it has all ready started. Than Venezuela may default. Low prices will hurt for sure. For us we will see M&A activities.

  • Reply to

    4.44% Div in January @ $15.30 price

    by irvingjewstein Dec 8, 2014 11:20 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 14, 2014 7:21 AM Flag

    I have a post on ALDW that confirm this statement. I keep the Q average Crack. This Q so far the Crack is $6.20, half of the preceding Q. I would say the Distribution will be $0.50 there about, unless the Crack dip some more.

  • Reply to

    Low Crude Oil Price is Economic Warfare

    by mrmuckle2012 Dec 10, 2014 2:57 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 14, 2014 7:17 AM Flag

    Agreed, I would differ with you on the Saudis reasons! Is the Saudis reasons the US shale production or the Iranian nuclear bomb. Should Iran get the bomb, the Saudis will lose their production leverage on all the others OPEC producers. Add to this possibility the Saudis lose of the Shia versus Sunni. Saudis are the Catholic and Iran the Protestant of our religious war. The US shale is the pretext a collateral loser.

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 14, 2014 6:56 AM Flag

    ALDW distribution is totally dependent on the crack. I follow the crack on a Q average. Last Q is was $13.34, so far this Q it is $6.20. Therefore I would not expect, best production etc.. $0.50 if $6.00 crack is the full Q average. Do not be confuse by ALDW percentage return. The percentage will relatively stay the same, but the dollar value will shut?? The crack is the forecast profits based on 3 barrels of crude versus 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of diesel. I use WTI and gasoline / diesel prices as shown by EIA.

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 12, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    Obama is causing a profound change in the American presidential function as it interacts with the American institutions.
    It is fair to say that until Obama, more times than not, the US presidents showed restraint in governing by staying within the constitutional framework established by the majority of past presidents. Obama has and is pushing his authority as no other president has done.
    The legislative functions of the congress is losing its ability to produce an effect by been to general. The regulators, not elected officials, produce the regulations that fit the executive policies. The presidential executive order is used to stretch the president ability to circumvent the legislative branch majority rule.
    This style of governing is out of the box, this will render the American institution erratic with every election. The future of the American institution can be seen by studying the French institutions. With the election of a president of the opposite party, first the goal is to destroy what the previous president did. The majority govern absolutely.
    The American ideal that was the norm is no longer the goal.

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 11, 2014 6:02 AM Flag

    The tone is harsh, but the goal is right on. Is Obama communist? He does not want to nationalize anything. At best he would like the government to take a position is selected large companies or corporations, that is socialism. On the other hand he gives large contracts to his benefactors, that clientele-ism. To me closer to fascism. With Obama it is so obvious that is in your face!

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 7, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Interesting times! Refiners make money off the CRACK. Their expenses will not change that much, the crude price is down and the Gasoline and diesel are down. The distribution should be lower. Many traders will see the down distribution as a problem and will stay away. I believe that a distribution of $0.5 to $0.70 will be tops. My question is where are the better returns. Unless you trade on the pharma or gopro etc. where is the good return. This quarter will be chaotic, it will get better. Price will be good to buy and keep for a while.

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 7, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    The Saudis have the upper hand in this “in your face” price war. The Saudis have two goals. First they want to find out the bottom oil price for their Brent. Second they are out to keep control on the Shia Islamic world.
    To give an idea of the pricing control the Saudis have? tHEY need only to quote their bottom production price, $10 per barrel. The Saudis have complete control of the world price. Many O&G economies will be hurt quickly, 6 month to a year, such as: Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela are the most vulnerable. Of the none OPEC: Russia, Brazil, Mexico, are vulnerable.
    The majority of these economies need oil price between $80 and $100 to fund their budgets. For the US we are going into and M&A situation. The most indebted will not survive. Interesting times to keep your eyes open. Continental Resources is a very interesting case that could be a winner on the rebound or as a M&A possibility. I remember when Mobile was over extended and Exxon bought it. Every one believe that Exxon was crazy, Exxon is sitting putty today with NG market doing very well.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha has NO juice!

    by bananabb Nov 26, 2014 2:56 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 3, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    If you do not get paid means your article does not get up load. Up to you to figure out why??

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 3, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    The Saudis have the upper hand in this “in your face” price war. The Saudis have two goals. First they want to find out the bottom oil price for their Brent. Second they are out to keep control on the Shia Islamic world.
    To give an idea of the pricing control the Saudis have need only to quote their bottom production price, $10 per barrel. The Saudis have complete control of the world price. Many O&G economies will be hurt quickly, 6 month to a year, such as: Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela are the most vulnerable. Of the none OPEC: Russia, Brazil, Mexico, are vulnerable.
    The majority of these economies need oil price between $80 and $100 to fund their budgets. For the US we are going into and M&A situation. The most indebted will not survive. Interesting times to keep your eyes open. Continental Resources is a very interesting case that could be a winner on the rebound or as a M&A possibility. I remember when Mobile was over extended and Exxon bought it. Every one believe that Exxon was crazy, Exxon is sitting putty today with NG market doing very well.

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