You can make a profit with contango. The forward crude price for February 2016 is $60. Storage fees and pipeline fees paid the profit per barrel can be $1.25/$1.50. This why the storage in Cushing OK is up 2MMbarrel since January 1 2015.
WHZ has a shale play must keep on drilling to maintain the production level. The production boost is with the new drilled wells that produce IP flow rate. Presently the cost of drilling is more than the IP can produce. It takes probably 90 days to drill and set up a new well. The expenses for this quarter include ongoing drilling operations. The index price crashing did not provide the sales profit expected. This situation is the same for all producers. Looking only at the IP production rate is for soccer’s. The real value is in the EUR. My guess is the IP flow rate pays for a large part of the drilling cost. The IP rate goes down 50% within 12 to 18 month to the intermediate EUR flow rate. A well 2 to 3 years old is producing at the EUR rate. The EUR production rate can last 5 to 8 years depending on the geology and the propend used.
I expect the production to decline somewhat in 2015; the drilling will be curtailed to save expenses. The production will show wells that are at the end of the IP and are transitioning toward the EUR production rate. This means less expenses and less production equal less distribution. This situation is the same for all shale producers. Looking at the forward price of crude in 2016 it shows a $60/$65 price which confirm the loss of production. The other confirmation is that contango has started, another way to look at it.
Nice definition of the owner of the free screw driver that you are unable to use any more. In deed it is the Xdate. As for the ASAP exit, you lose the distribution only, you save the pile on.
This board becomes active if 30 days before Xdate. MVO is a producer and with the index price dumping, producers are at a disadvantage. Sale requires fracking and fracking requires drilling. Drilling is costly so only the sweet spots are worth while. Meaning must have a super IP. So refiners are a better deal right now. I believe we have reached the bottom, contango has started, the 12 month forward price is $60. We will see lots of volatility.
I understand the meaning of Xdate as the last day you have to buy to make the 3 open days. I count the days and sale 2 or 3 days before Xdate. I seldom take the distribution, I am interested in the pre Xdate bump. Take too long to recover the Xdate distribution loss. It takes me 3 days to clear the sale and buy something else.
I had the same problem trying to figure out the Xdate for ALDW. The definition of the Xdate is 3 business days before the “stockholders of record”. It takes 3 days business days for a trade to be finalized. In order for the trader to qualify for the distribution the last day he must buy ALDW is 3 days before the stockholders of record. In this case the stockholders of record on February 17, 2015. So February 12, 2015 is the Xdate. Weekends and holidays do not count as business days. So next Thursday 12 at the closing you must buy ALDW to be the owner on the Tuesday 17 February. You will find out that on Xdate the amount of the distribution will be deducted from the posted unit value.
The buzz is that Contango has started, the 12 month forecast price is $60. After all expenses paid, it is possible to make a $1.40 profit per barrel. 2MMb have increased the Cushing OK storage in the last month. The production has not increased 2MMb in 30 days??
When the value of crude oil ditch as is the case, the profit will follow. The Crack Spread is down therefore the total value of profit is down as well. The profit as percent is approximately the same, the dollar value is down. Psychologically dollar down you sale, it is a natural reaction. I look at the alternative, Refiners are better placed to make a profit then the producers. The refiners cost to produce refined product does not change, it is just that they buy crude at a lower price and sale the refined product lower as well. I mainly deal with O&G so the whole sector has the same problem. As such ALDW is a good MLP as compared with the competition. So far I am doing OK!
I heard of Excelyte while reading an article on RigZone a website totally involved in the upstream O&G business. This is the time IEVM started to see about getting in the drilling business. Until than Excelyte was used as a cleaner in hospital and food business. It has not been 1 years as yet. I bought in April 2014, it as not been moving up, by the new development about more drilling client makes me believe that it will move especially when the drilling picks up again. IEVM is a long term deal, if it goes to $1 I will make out big.
Having worked in the drilling business for SEDCO and ENSCO Excelyte is a winner. It will take a major to get the home-run. I have given myself 12 month to see IEVM take off. It is difficult to get establish in the drilling business. Most of the equipment is own by the drilling company, but all consumables are at the client burden. The oil company does not care about the equipment. The oil company contract the mud ingredients and the mud engineer. The mud and clean up and disposal are at the oil company burden. This is why Excelyte is taking time to get establish.
Contango is on the raise in Cushing and with floaters. This means that you buy today and you store it and in 12 month you make a $1.25 profit per barrel after all expenses are pay off. Cushing has seen a storage increase of 2MMbarrels. It is gambling but too many big boys are doing it. This guys are not stupid.
I remember when Shell refinery in Pasadena Texas was on strike way back in 2001, there was no real stoppage. Each contractor is assigned his own gate which he must use. Shell refinery must have 20 gates to be used by contractors. The picketing can only occurs on his gate. This leave all the other gates open for business. There was picketing at the main gate but did not stop traffic just slow it down. I had access to the entire refinery without problem. Texas is a Right to Work state. Unions are not band so you choose to work with a contractor that is not unionized. Bechtel has a union subsidiary as well as a nonunion subsidiary. All Bechtel equipment is own by another subsidiary, the use of the equipment is leased to union or nonunion subs. There are many ways around union stricks!
The Middle East will never be the same. The Saudis are getting encircled by their enemy Iran. Yemen, Syria and Northern Iraq are pro Iran. When Iran gets the bomb, thanks to big O, the oil price will be at $200 per barrel. Even if nothing happen the lack of new oil discovery will be less production, same $200 oil in 3 to 5 years.
I word is that this new king was running the Saudis government for sometimes. The old king was in and out of hospital several times. The expectation is for little changes! This new king is 78 years old, he is interim none the less.
Refiners make their profit based on the Crack Spread. The refining expenses do not change. The retail price goes down with the WTI price. The retail price lags the WTI, so better deal for the refiners. I have the average Crack for the last 12 month at $7.73. The Crack between November 14 and January 15 at $7.03. Do not look for a $1.40 distribution, my guess $0.60 tops.
I realize the contentious is that the Saudis are after the US shale production. This is the cherry on top of the cake. The only power the Saudis have to offer is the amount of production they are able to muster. Should or when Iran gets the bomb, the threat of the bomb will take any leverage the Saudis have on the price. The Saudis have shown responsibility in controlling the crude price. Iran has a totally different intention. The underlining war is religious, the more belligerent is Iran. It will not be putty once Iran has the bomb! Happily we have shale and plenty of it!
The R&R cost is dictated not only by the oil or LPG used. The insurance cost is substantial. More are the risks higher the insurance. You have the R&R tank car leasing cost. The new regulations will increase this cost a lot. Berkshare is making a killing, with the R&R and in insurance??