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Apollo Global Management, LLC Message Board

ousaouparis 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 5, 2016 12:38 AM Member since: Mar 19, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Thoughts on IET's future, discussion points

    by johnny_utahh Jun 3, 2016 8:00 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Jun 5, 2016 12:38 AM Flag

    Excelyte is an outstanding cheap product to treat H2S. It is also the worst possible time to break the O&G EP business.

    Many if not most independent EPs begin their drilling and production when fracking was a new technology without a known cost reference. The crude oil price was in the $100 per barrel. The banks were willing to loan capital with such high price. The profits were about $30 per barrel; loans were paid with little problems, all was well.
    The 2014 crash has totally changed the fracking industry. The outcome is that only the most profitable production wells are producing. In the O&G industry H2S is a major additional expense, just the additional safety equipment that must be on location to satisfy the OSHA regulations is a negative. IET potential customers have evaporated unless the IP H2S wells are gushers meaning an additional $2 or $3 per barrel cost is manageable. Many LTO EPs are having a hard time to stay profitable, that $2 or $3 added cost is too much. Shutting down the well is preferable until!!!
    The price of crude oil cannot stay down back to the $20s, it will cause major political up evil in the Middle East and Africa, cannot forget Venezuela. Once the US EP M&A will have been completed IET will rebound. By the end of this year IET should pick up more customers. Patience, hard to do!

  • Reply to

    I Predict Share Price Technical Upswing to Continue

    by mexcom May 27, 2016 2:24 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis May 30, 2016 7:59 AM Flag

    These the time of years the auto industry start producing the new model. Should be good for iron ore and steel plate!

  • Reply to

    April 2016 WTI Crack Spread

    by aparenteau32 May 10, 2016 8:15 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis May 28, 2016 4:02 AM Flag

    Thanks very good link. In calculating my crack average I scr__d up. I used the number of day less week end! I do not think the refineries are closed on week ends?? My new average for Q2 is $12.39.

  • Reply to

    April 2016 WTI Crack Spread

    by aparenteau32 May 10, 2016 8:15 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis May 25, 2016 7:46 AM Flag

    Using the EIA published crack spread between April 19 and today the Crack is $8.41. I use the quarter starting date 30 days before the last Xdate or in this case what was supposed to be the last Xdate. The reason for this 30 days previous start date is that the market powers of be must receive the projected Xdate 10 days before the programed Xdate. I add to this the time it takes to prepare the report and to have it approved by the BOD. Still not too good but better and going up some what!

  • Reply to

    Going to be a bad year for refiners

    by dingkusbaringus Apr 20, 2016 11:10 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Apr 22, 2016 11:22 PM Flag

    The over supplied of crude is starting to be an argument that may no longer be right. There is an analysis of the world production of crude, including OPEC that sees South America as the place that will see a 1MMBD drop in production. The producers having problems are: Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico, Equator and Brazil. Venezuela is on the verge of default. Brazil is in the midst of a political Armageddon. The others are having a hard time to find financing. The index price does no longer provide a profit after all expenses are paid. The crude price has seen bottom and will be in the high $40s if not $50s by Q4. The refiners crack spread is getting higher, in the teens. Patience is required?

  • Reply to

    Pull The Trigger

    by oliviaavaww27580 Mar 10, 2016 9:32 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Apr 12, 2016 8:29 AM Flag

    It is quite interesting, I read that we have bottom out and we should see crude prices back to the high 40s or low 50s. I also read that a recession is coming so sell, sell, sell??
    My guess is that the Saudis will not get their ways; the LTO-Shale will do better than expected. As for the recession it will all depend on the November election. If elected the democrats will tight the hands of business some more! Seems to be what they do best!

  • Reply to

    What is the future

    by ousaouparis Apr 9, 2016 2:35 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Apr 10, 2016 5:05 AM Flag

    In the semiconductor manufacturing industry polarity is all important, so wash water has of negative polarity. Therefore water piping is in inert material; Teflon is the choice so as not to modify the polarity of the water. Another important quality of Teflon is that because it is inert no chemical part of the piping material leach at room temperature. Semiconductors circuits are washed clean because any particle in the micron size can disable the circuit. Negative water polarity removes all impurities.
    Another application where Electrolysis process is used is at the Palo Alto accelerator cooling water. The water must be of negative polarity. The electrical potential is very important in controlling the test elements in the center of the accelerator core. Water cooling piping is in Teflon.
    Up front, I do not know but my guess is Excelyte is of negative polarity water that once injected kill or neutralize H2S and others undesirable elements. The degree of polarity as to be what makes Excelyte so effective. The Excelyte batch delivered to drilling site are in Teflon tanks, this is what I observed on IEVM photos. I guess they want the polarity of Excelyte to be max upon delivery. Excelyte is undetectable after 30 days, another indication that the polarity is lost once in contact with ground polarity.
    I suppose it is difficult to sale the idea that Excelyte is polarized water that will kill H2S and more. I guess Chlorine is seen as better because at least you can smell it, you can smell the money you spent!! Ha! Ha!

  • Reply to

    What is the future

    by ousaouparis Apr 9, 2016 2:35 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Apr 9, 2016 2:36 AM Flag

    Continue from above:
    The distillate water is fresh water but cost is prohibitive unless you sale the water as fresh water for $200 per ton. Excelyte has a decontaminant permit the drilling mud, once reconditioned, to be reused at will. The
    Fracking liquid which comes back with the FTO production is separated and can be reused once reconditioned.
    Excelyte will become the ultimate decontaminant once the O&G prices go back to the $40/$50 per barrel. The FTO-Shale industry has cut its prices by half, and prices at $20 per barrel cannot stay much longer. Several OPEC members cannot live unless the Brent price gets back to $50, it will happen very soon.

  • ousaouparis by ousaouparis Apr 9, 2016 2:35 AM Flag

    IEVM IPO took place the 30th August 2000, or 4 month short of 16 years. Excelyte the product that is IEVM at first was a disinfectant for hospital, slaughter houses and restaurants. Early on it was approved by the FDA, not a small achievement. Excelyte cannot be patented; I think I know why because this electrolytic process has been used, with success, by at least, two industries that I am familiar with, semi-conductor and industries requiring the water polarity control. I may be wrong but let it be as that!
    I became interested by Excelyte subsequent to reading an article on “RigZone” an O&G upstream internet website. I spent the last 30 years of my carrier in the O&G business, designing drilling offshore rigs. I know first-hand the problems that H2S can do from a health and safety point of view but also the oxidation of steel used in drilling. The H2S corrode very quickly the steel pipes and failure is catastrophic. The drilling and production industry deals with high pressure in the thousands of PSI. When a failure occurs it is a big deal and the personnel exposure is deadly. The standard procedure to deal with H2S in the drilling environment is to flow the return mud through a separator and burn the H2S gas as far downwind from the rig. The mud cleaning, for reuse become expensive, and all personnel must use gas masks. H2S is heavier than air, so very dangerous to handle, 5 PPM is already too much.
    Upon reading the article I realized Excelyte potential and purchased shares of IEVM. The management of IEVM had just discovered the potential of Excelyte. This was 2 years ago today; the old IEVM management had no experience with the O&G industry and that for 14 years! Excelyte cost to produce is inexpensive as compared with the competition. Chlorine is probably 10 times more expensive, but still requires other treatment if ecologically discharged. The other competition is even more expensive as it requires distillation by evaporation. The distillate water is fresh wa

  • Reply to

    The "big" picture

    by zzg123 Apr 5, 2016 2:37 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Apr 6, 2016 9:06 AM Flag

    I goof up, I like this comment. Excelyte has little competition at this low discontinuation cost. The market is rough, patience!

  • Reply to

    Everyone's updated thoughts here?

    by zzg123 Mar 31, 2016 11:38 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Apr 2, 2016 9:48 PM Flag

    I look at IEVM as a poker hand. I believe Excelyte to be a good product competitive in the H2S O&G market. The competition is many times more expensive. Chlorine is one the other is decontamination through evaporative condensation. Excelyte can become the principal decontaminant for H2S what is holding it back is the WTI price. My guess is that Excelyte treatment is less than $1 per barrel. Many EPs are just about under, so a $1 per barrel expense is too much, they prefer to shut down the well.
    The question is, has the index price bottom out, I would prefer to say: is OPEC capable to keep its members in line. The Saudis can keep up the price that low, but the members like Nigeria which get 70% of their budget from crude oil revenue, cannot stay alive with these kinds of prices. By the end of the year, 2016, the bottom will be behind us.

  • Reply to

    Difficult market

    by ousaouparis Mar 31, 2016 10:45 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Apr 1, 2016 7:21 AM Flag

    A shut down well must be work over to be back in production. That is true for standard reservoir wells. In a LTO-Shale well, the production start out as IP than after a year or two get in the EUR volume. Shutting down these wells means to forgo the fracking fluids which provide the pressure to not only frack but bring the crude of gas to the surface. A EUR well will slowly lose production volume. At some point the cost of maintaining the well head equipment does not cover the cost of the production of that well, so shut down is SOP. The other alternative would be to refract the well, but the geological formation must still be viable. This is up to the EP. In general I would assume that a new IP well would be preferable. I know that the cost of a new FTO well ready to produce is argumentative. In general today the cost is halve what it was 3 years ago. Some where between 2 or 3 millions dollar, including fracking. This investment over 3 years is profitable with crude oil at $25/$30 per barrel. This is assuming that large loans where not taken on 3 or 4 years ago.

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