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Sabine Royalty Trust Message Board

ousaouparis 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 23, 2015 4:09 AM Member since: Mar 19, 2010
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  • Reply to

    4.44% Div in January @ $15.30 price

    by irvingjewstein Dec 8, 2014 11:20 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 15, 2014 6:58 AM Flag

    I believe the crash in oil prices we see today is primarily a religious war. Should Iran get the bomb, the Saudis will lose any leverage within OPEC to Iran and the Shea side of the Islamic world. The Saudis believe themselves to be the guarantor of the Muslim faith. So for the Saudis it is a big deal. The Russians are on the wrong side, what they want is to keep this naval base on the Mediterranean sea, their only one outside the Black Sea, the others are in the North Pacific and the Arctic see. The US shale producer price lose is a collateral event. Several members of OPEC will not be able to follow for long: Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela the most vulnerable. Several none OPEC are all ready hurt: Russia first, Mexico and Brazil are not far behind. For us watch for lots of M&A.

  • Reply to

    Oil now is $69, why XLE still down?

    by daytraderingreen Dec 1, 2014 2:17 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 14, 2014 7:37 AM Flag

    The question is, how long will the price will dip. Second Q 2015 should see some rally. Some of the OPEC members will start to have social problems: Nigeria, Iran, in particular. Russia as well, it has all ready started. Than Venezuela may default. Low prices will hurt for sure. For us we will see M&A activities.

  • Reply to

    4.44% Div in January @ $15.30 price

    by irvingjewstein Dec 8, 2014 11:20 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 14, 2014 7:21 AM Flag

    I have a post on ALDW that confirm this statement. I keep the Q average Crack. This Q so far the Crack is $6.20, half of the preceding Q. I would say the Distribution will be $0.50 there about, unless the Crack dip some more.

  • Reply to

    Low Crude Oil Price is Economic Warfare

    by mrmuckle2012 Dec 10, 2014 2:57 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 14, 2014 7:17 AM Flag

    Agreed, I would differ with you on the Saudis reasons! Is the Saudis reasons the US shale production or the Iranian nuclear bomb. Should Iran get the bomb, the Saudis will lose their production leverage on all the others OPEC producers. Add to this possibility the Saudis lose of the Shia versus Sunni. Saudis are the Catholic and Iran the Protestant of our religious war. The US shale is the pretext a collateral loser.

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 14, 2014 6:56 AM Flag

    ALDW distribution is totally dependent on the crack. I follow the crack on a Q average. Last Q is was $13.34, so far this Q it is $6.20. Therefore I would not expect, best production etc.. $0.50 if $6.00 crack is the full Q average. Do not be confuse by ALDW percentage return. The percentage will relatively stay the same, but the dollar value will shut?? The crack is the forecast profits based on 3 barrels of crude versus 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of diesel. I use WTI and gasoline / diesel prices as shown by EIA.

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 12, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    Obama is causing a profound change in the American presidential function as it interacts with the American institutions.
    It is fair to say that until Obama, more times than not, the US presidents showed restraint in governing by staying within the constitutional framework established by the majority of past presidents. Obama has and is pushing his authority as no other president has done.
    The legislative functions of the congress is losing its ability to produce an effect by been to general. The regulators, not elected officials, produce the regulations that fit the executive policies. The presidential executive order is used to stretch the president ability to circumvent the legislative branch majority rule.
    This style of governing is out of the box, this will render the American institution erratic with every election. The future of the American institution can be seen by studying the French institutions. With the election of a president of the opposite party, first the goal is to destroy what the previous president did. The majority govern absolutely.
    The American ideal that was the norm is no longer the goal.

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 11, 2014 6:02 AM Flag

    The tone is harsh, but the goal is right on. Is Obama communist? He does not want to nationalize anything. At best he would like the government to take a position is selected large companies or corporations, that is socialism. On the other hand he gives large contracts to his benefactors, that clientele-ism. To me closer to fascism. With Obama it is so obvious that is in your face!

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 7, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Interesting times! Refiners make money off the CRACK. Their expenses will not change that much, the crude price is down and the Gasoline and diesel are down. The distribution should be lower. Many traders will see the down distribution as a problem and will stay away. I believe that a distribution of $0.5 to $0.70 will be tops. My question is where are the better returns. Unless you trade on the pharma or gopro etc. where is the good return. This quarter will be chaotic, it will get better. Price will be good to buy and keep for a while.

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 7, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    The Saudis have the upper hand in this “in your face” price war. The Saudis have two goals. First they want to find out the bottom oil price for their Brent. Second they are out to keep control on the Shia Islamic world.
    To give an idea of the pricing control the Saudis have? tHEY need only to quote their bottom production price, $10 per barrel. The Saudis have complete control of the world price. Many O&G economies will be hurt quickly, 6 month to a year, such as: Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela are the most vulnerable. Of the none OPEC: Russia, Brazil, Mexico, are vulnerable.
    The majority of these economies need oil price between $80 and $100 to fund their budgets. For the US we are going into and M&A situation. The most indebted will not survive. Interesting times to keep your eyes open. Continental Resources is a very interesting case that could be a winner on the rebound or as a M&A possibility. I remember when Mobile was over extended and Exxon bought it. Every one believe that Exxon was crazy, Exxon is sitting putty today with NG market doing very well.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha has NO juice!

    by bananabb Nov 26, 2014 2:56 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 3, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    If you do not get paid means your article does not get up load. Up to you to figure out why??

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 3, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    The Saudis have the upper hand in this “in your face” price war. The Saudis have two goals. First they want to find out the bottom oil price for their Brent. Second they are out to keep control on the Shia Islamic world.
    To give an idea of the pricing control the Saudis have need only to quote their bottom production price, $10 per barrel. The Saudis have complete control of the world price. Many O&G economies will be hurt quickly, 6 month to a year, such as: Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela are the most vulnerable. Of the none OPEC: Russia, Brazil, Mexico, are vulnerable.
    The majority of these economies need oil price between $80 and $100 to fund their budgets. For the US we are going into and M&A situation. The most indebted will not survive. Interesting times to keep your eyes open. Continental Resources is a very interesting case that could be a winner on the rebound or as a M&A possibility. I remember when Mobile was over extended and Exxon bought it. Every one believe that Exxon was crazy, Exxon is sitting putty today with NG market doing very well.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha has NO juice!

    by bananabb Nov 26, 2014 2:56 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 3, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    SA pays all authors of article a per up load price. To make any money you have to have thousand of up loads. Some of the professionals authors use SA as a publicity platform, nothing wrong with that. I find the quality of some of SA published articles questionable.

  • Reply to

    Brokers

    by ousaouparis Nov 21, 2014 6:50 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 3, 2014 7:56 AM Flag

    In order to have a buyer there must be a seller. Investing in any stock represent a"Speculation". It is impossible that speculators only see down. Always opening down is questionable. It is possible that it is an OTC particularity!

  • Reply to

    Market Over-Reaction?

    by twelve12pm Dec 1, 2014 1:09 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Dec 2, 2014 6:14 PM Flag

    I find the argument somewhat devious! It is understood that at each distribution the WHZ price will drop the amount of the distribution or $0.50. This drop occurs the day after Xdate, I assume that the price drop per quarter will be $0.23, this will bring the price to zero at the 27th and last distribution.
    The total distribution will be $1755, but the unit price will be zero, a loss of $1000 over the 27 distributions. Over the 27 quarters the profit is $1755-$1000=$755. Per year average profit is $118. All this is calculated as averages. Regardless of the distributions, the unit price will loss the distribution price, and when there is no longer anything to sale, the unit price will be zero.
    I question the idea that buying a US Royal (USRT) Trust at IPO and keeping it to the end has a good outcome. Yes the distribution does generate earning but the unit price eats up a major portion of the distribution over time. I believe buying and keeping the USRT, at best for half the life of the USRT.
    I buy 30 days before Xdate and sale couple of days before Xdate. My profit is the Xdate bump.

  • Reply to

    U.S. Government Bringing Russian Oil to Knees

    by barebuttbob2014 Nov 29, 2014 12:27 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Nov 29, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    The Russians are tacitly, meaning imply but not expressed, going along with OPEC. The Russians have little choices; O&G is their primary source of revenues. The Russians are pragmatic in that they know the Saudis are out to hurt the Shia side of the Islamic world and Iran first. So Putin is Putin “El primo”. OPEC as it was known is losing some of its “Gusto”. The percentage of oil or gas produced by none OPEC members is approaching the 50% of daily availability on the world market.
    Going back to the ROPEC, extended OPEC, are out to find the US producer bottom price. Two problems for the US producers: 1. cannot export and 2. The GOM refineries are producing at maximum output. The oil back up at Cushing and elsewhere will bring the price down inland.
    How long can ROPEC keep the price down in the $60s before unrest starts? My guess: 6 month to 1 year. This is why all the O&G equities etc.. are substantially down, and all drilling equities as well. Drilling will not comeback for 3 years. Too many stacked assets or new built without contract.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha has NO juice!

    by bananabb Nov 26, 2014 2:56 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Nov 29, 2014 7:46 AM Flag

    If I understand Yahoo charges SA for the publication of article. SA thinks they do not need these publication to keep the viewership. SA pays the authors a per up load price. I guess SA profit was too little. Most SA article have little value.

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Nov 28, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    The game for the Saudis is to find out the US producers bottom price before they shut down production. The consensus appears to be $60 for many. With the Russians tacitly joining can ROPEC keep this low price for how long. Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela have serious social programs to fund. If they cannot get the O&G moneys to fund these programs they may get social unrest. 2015 will see very volatile price. May 2015 for a $90 price is too soon. My guess second semester 2015.

  • Reply to

    Going down to $16 ?

    by marvinglickstein Nov 27, 2014 5:14 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Nov 28, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Sound like the Russians have tacitly join OPEC, so the new acroy is ROPEC, I like this. The Saudis want to find out the bottom US production price. The consensus is $60 for many US producers. Few ROPEC producers are in the Saudis economic situation. How long can ROPEC keep these low prices before social unrest appears in Nigeria, Iran, even Russia plus many more smaller members. My guess 6 to 12 months. 2015 will be a difficult year?

  • Reply to

    ALJ, ALDW nix Krotz sale

    by runnerln Nov 20, 2014 12:19 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Nov 28, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    Today the forward price of the WTI is in the $60s. The Crack Spread is hovering around $5/$8. That appears to be unfavorable market conditions? Many US producers bottom price is $60, the Canadian Bituminous crude bottom price is $40 at the producers location. 2015 is going to be a challenging year. So why taking on more debt?

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Nov 27, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    Thank you "Cancre"

SBR
39.64-0.16(-0.40%)Jan 26 4:02 PMEST

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