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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Message Board

ousaouparis 57 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Mar 19, 2010
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  • Reply to

    spin off

    by etopper12 Apr 9, 2014 9:45 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis 11 hours ago Flag

    If you are in the pipeline business, you have to have some storage. My guess is at list 2 or 3 days of pipeline throughput. I you do not control the storage, you may have to stop the operation of the pipeline. Pipeline cannot be stopped on a dime. Stopping throughput is not where the problem is, the re-start is, you may induce slugs that may damage the pipeline.

  • Reply to

    Chevron in talks with NS

    by mark.karpeles Apr 6, 2014 10:40 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis 16 hours ago Flag

    Another caveat to the LNG export from the US. The futures of Australian LNG plants are in question. The latest cost overruns for the LNG plants just completed are 40% over budget. The competition, in Australia, between the mining and the O&G industry is significant. The Australian labor union is pricing the labor force out of the competition. Several US majors are looking at the US to mitigate the construction cost of LNG trains.
    Also the US LNG long term export contract are based on the Henry Hub price not the Brent BTU equivalence. All these factors make US future LNG export more competitive.

  • ousaouparis by ousaouparis Apr 13, 2014 7:02 AM Flag

    EXCELYTE is the game changer; at least it is my view. Looking at the oil or gas drilling, the expenses encountered in the treatment of returned drill water back to an environmental quality permitting this water to be released back to nature is what EXCELYTE is all about.
    In the past, this water was not treated and rejected in abandon coal mine shaft where ever possible. EPA stopped that practice and forced drillers to treat this water. The treatment is an expensive budget; SD is trying to spin off its drill water treatment unit.
    Should EXCELYTE become the preferred biocide, IEVM will take off in the $10 range. The volume of EXCELYTE will be many time today’s production. I have to anticipate growing pain. One, not the only, way to acquire funds to finance EXCELYTE is a MLP. That appears to me to be the efficient way to finance a commodity project without having to commit to banking regulations. IEVM would retain a percentage of the IPO outstanding units in order to keep corporate control. The cash flow is the distribution, many MLP are set up this way: ALDW, NIT, CVRR, SLX to call out a few. Naturally EXCELYTE as to be a qualified commodity.

  • Reply to

    Maybe I'm Missing Something........

    by me_jade Feb 17, 2014 5:27 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Apr 9, 2014 8:56 PM Flag

    What you are saying is that the MMbtu/d from Marcellus is enough to feed the needs of the northeast in winter! You are way off the mark. This year NG demand has depleted the storage to an 11 year low. Some believe that this summer production at 100% may not replenish the storage. The export of LPG is increasing the demand. If we have another wet fall, the corn crop will need LPG again. NG is starting to see it face in the US. NG Hub price will stay at $4.00 for a while.

  • Reply to

    Chevron in talks with NS

    by mark.karpeles Apr 6, 2014 10:40 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Apr 9, 2014 7:59 AM Flag

    All I can say is that when Exxon bought XTO it was seen as a bad deal. Exxon had entered the LNG business when Exxon bought Mobile. Mobile was over stretch, Rasgas the Qatari LNG business represented too much needed investment for, than Mobile. So Mobile merged with Exxon. Now Rasgas is 30% own by Exxon and represent 50% of the LNG export of Qatar, the other 50% is Qatar gas. If you look at the world oil market, non government majors are losing out to government own oil companies.They are forced to have JVs and are taxed too much. NG is the way majors will continue to grow. NG, LPG, LNG is the future for independent oil companies. Chevron is not the exception, Chevron is getting heavily invested in NG. Chevron really is late. Look at the MMbtu cost in the far east $15.45, in Europe $8.10 and HHN is $4.55. NG is where the profit will be in the near future.

  • Reply to

    WHZ...

    by kellykkowalczyk Mar 18, 2014 8:31 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 27, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    The way O&G production works out in a Shale play is totally different than in a standard O&G production. The notion of IP and UER do not apply to standard play.
    The IP production rate goes down by 30% within 12 to 24 month. The real production over time is the UER. The UER production rate is around 50% lower than a new IP type well. WHZ life spend is just starting to get in the UER zone. Naturally to keep up with production, new wells are added, meaning IP wells. I expect production to go down somewhat depending on the number of new IP wells.

  • Reply to

    I purchased this on June 12,2012

    by myyddogal Mar 10, 2014 11:06 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 26, 2014 7:59 PM Flag

    This is also my understanding. Australia does not have a large work force. They have to import a large number of labor. The work permit are hard to get and the taxes are high. Also the LNG trains are in isolated areas.The import duties is high also, Australia protect Australia's products, always have. I have never been to Australia and never was interested to go. Several project have been drooped or postpone.

  • Reply to

    WHZ...

    by kellykkowalczyk Mar 18, 2014 8:31 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 25, 2014 6:40 AM Flag

    WHZ is still a young trust, Over time trust production goes down as the reservoir loses pressure. WHZ seems to have a stable production, but a little less oil and a little more gas. Production seems to vary with the quarter. WHZ life is not long enough to see a pattern as yet.

  • Reply to

    I purchased this on June 12,2012

    by myyddogal Mar 10, 2014 11:06 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 24, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    I worked on the train 7 & 8 in Qatar Rasgas which is 30% Exon Mobile. I have worked on these 2 trains and walked the site of all the trains. Rasgas LNG trains, and for Qatar it is half, the LNG production. Qatar Gas has another 7 trains with other majors: Shell, Conoco etc.. So far Qatar is the largest producer of LNG and export 90% of it. The Gas reservoir off shore is shared between Qatar and Iran. so far Iran is not producing LNG, that I know of. This reservoir has enough gas for 100 years. The Algerian have to be the second largest, I worked there also, producer of LNG, but export regular gas through pipelines through Marroco and Spain, and Libya thought Sicilian and Italy. Between regular gas and LNG Algeria is second. Chevron has several LNG trains in Australia, but their biggest is in Angola. we will be a large exporter but not for the foreseeable future.

  • Reply to

    Downgrade? Why?

    by mrock3754 Mar 5, 2014 2:27 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 24, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    Yes, $500 make sense, but when 2020 or 2030. My guess if we have WWIII it may go to $1000, specially if the middle east is where WWIII happen? All this is talk, the WTI will go down this year, unless oil export is allowed.

  • Reply to

    APO price raised today...tgt..$41

    by lawstuff22 Mar 18, 2014 8:39 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 23, 2014 8:06 AM Flag

    Bubble of this type happen, really, every 70 years or so. The Tulip was Amsterdam, before there was Venice, The British had there bubble, WWII took care of the British Pound, The Bolsheviks had there with the end of the soviet union, All these bubble took around 70 years to pop. Sound to me that Obama is popping the US bubble? It is around 70 years since the dollar took over from the British pound?

  • Reply to

    APO price raised today...tgt..$41

    by lawstuff22 Mar 18, 2014 8:39 AM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 21, 2014 10:01 PM Flag

    The Dutch Tulip Bulb bubble goes back 300 years? Interesting that history is still relevant?

  • Reply to

    WHZ...

    by kellykkowalczyk Mar 18, 2014 8:31 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 20, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    Maybe, calculating the possible distribution using the March 19 income report, I see $0.89 distribution. This report shows only income for 2013. I am up beat for a descent distribution in April.

  • Reply to

    Downgrade? Why?

    by mrock3754 Mar 5, 2014 2:27 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 18, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    The yield as a percentage, increases as the unit price goes down and the distribution stays the same. Just looking at the yield is meaningless without looking at the trailing price over a quarter. It is understood that the value of the trust will go down, unless the NG or/and the crude index price increase and balance the reserve to be produced. In a young trust it is easy, it becomes difficult as the trust get closer to its end live. WHX is the case in point, just not enough commodity left to keep the trust value stable.

  • Reply to

    HOW DO I JOIN THE ANDREW LEFT LAWSUIT?

    by ibcnu2nite Mar 11, 2014 4:10 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 11, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    You have no ground for a law suit, the only one that will make money is the lawyer, and he will do it with your money! LOL

  • Reply to

    ok see you in the morning guys what a day

    by growtime4us Mar 11, 2014 4:13 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 11, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    All was well until Charles Payne on FNB said at 10:30 that "Time to take some profits". Within 5 minutes PLUG was down $1.00. It never recover. 61% of the shares were traded! The crash is 41%.
    Charles Payne has raw power??

  • Reply to

    Plug versus FCEL

    by ousaouparis Mar 9, 2014 8:59 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 10, 2014 7:47 AM Flag

    Your comment, although harsh, make the point that FCEL has a better business model. Further research point to the benefices of MCFC fuel cell as power plants. The negative is the high temperature 600⁰C to 1200⁰. This limits the materials able to sustain these temperatures. On the other hand it is a plus as this high temperature can be used through downstream exhaust by steam turbines to enhance the power generation efficiency. It is assume that the efficiency of standard power plant is 35%. The efficiency of MCFC is 47% if you add the steam turbine efficiency you get to 82% a remarkable outcome.
    Years ago I was involved with the MegnatoHydroDynamic MHD power plant demonstrator in Billing Montana. The MHD process was to supper charge the ambient air with oxygen to burn coal at very high temperature 5000⁰F. This magna was polarized and passed through a magneto that produced 20% electricity. The exhaust was the heat source of high pressure and low pressure steam turbines that produced electricity at 35% efficiency. The 20% efficiency increase was the benefice of MHD power plants. I left the project to go into O&G projects and never heard of the outcome of MHD power plant.
    I believe FCEL has great potentials.

  • ousaouparis by ousaouparis Mar 9, 2014 8:59 PM Flag

    My research looking at FCEL and PLUG shows that although both are involved in PEM, PLUG is targeting the forklift market and FCEL is more into power generation.
    It appears to me that both are generating lots of interest because they are into PEM. I believe that PLUG is targeting too narrow of a market and FCEL business model is, my view, targeting a wider market that may be having wider acceptance and faster growing market.I am invested into FCEL and question the viability of PLUG over time?
    The economic comparison between PEM forklift and battery operated forklift , the 3 types, makes PEM forklift more expensive to operate. This may not be the case for power plants PEM type generation which would provide power to a wide range of electric user.
    Any comments?

  • ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 9, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    True, but it is also the percent invested versus the rewards. With GE you invest a large percentage of your capital and get small some what guarantied reward. In many cases you cannot diversify. With PLUG, FCEL and BLDP you invest small you diversify and you may get big reward. So far I am 20% in PEM cell fuel.

  • Reply to

    Why PLUG's EARNING WILL NOT MATTER....

    by dbrown71467 Mar 8, 2014 1:10 PM
    ousaouparis ousaouparis Mar 8, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    You are right, it is the future potential of TSLA that is attracting and the stock goes up. Amazon is the other stock that has not shown any profit. Or to be exact there is no profit because Amazon reinvest all the cash flow into new facilities and product lines. Plug and FCEL may very well do the same. More cells in service will reduce the cost of production. Accessibility of refueling any where and quickly will bring down the cost with more units in service. None the less PEM cell are more expansive that standard batteries. So this is betting on the future, worked for Amazon and TSLA why not PLUG and FCEL.

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