NTI market is in the upper Minnesota, Baken crude oil competition is the R&R. What I mean is the delivered price of Baken crude is higher than Brent on the East Cost. The Baken still is competitive in the upper West Coast. This is good for NTI, the discount should be good. The Baken producers have to use pipeline to the GOM to compete, but throughput is still not quiet enough.
Never heard of high speed trading. We are good trader’s clients in normal times. Since traders make money on a buy or sell, computer trading takes over when the market goes crazy. The best strategy is to let these high rollers have their day. I will make my money somewhere around mid-October. Fact of life.
My research goes back to this definition in May 2014. LITTLE RIVER, S.C., May 14, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE)
Integrated Environmental Technologies, Ltd. markets and sells its anolyte disinfecting solution under the Excelyte(TM) brand name, which is produced by the company's proprietary EcaFlo(TM) equipment that utilizes an electrolytic process known as electrochemical activation to reliably produce environmentally responsible solutions for cleaning, sanitizing and disinfecting.
Anolyte, is in electrolysis, the portion of the electrolyte in the immediate vicinity of the anode
Anode is the electrode or terminal by which current enters an electrolytic cell, voltaic cell, battery, etc.
I did read another article where by Ecelyte could not be patented. I am not a biologist or chemist. If I understand what the “electrolytic” process does, it modifies the polarity of the water. My guess is that the Excelyte process, the EcaFlo equipment, is where the proprietary secrete, if we can used this word, is.
All I know, in the manufacturing of microelectronic, the etching is done by spraying chemicals or gases on wafers. When the wafer has to be washed, water is sprayed on the wafer. This water is negatively polarized. This will keep pollution out. In this case the spaces between leads on the chip are in the 2 or 3 microns. Any sizable pollution would short out the circuit. Polarizing the water does not allow the pollutant to stay on the chip. This explanation may be far fetch, but it does make sense.
In the case of Excelyte, the negative polarization of the water kills the pathogens, bacteria, viruses, and germs. Now what is the level of the negative polarization is company confidential. That is my guess!
ALDW is going to go through the end of the driving season. The switch is going to go toward heating oil as fall start in North Texas. Probable there will be a turnaround during the slow season. This time the big plus is the Phoenix market, the new market ALDW has gone to.
To date ALDW has gone down 15.23% since Xdate. This is normal, last quarter ALDW went down 37.28% that was with the start of the driving season. In 2014-Q3 ALDW went down 40.18%. No sense to panic, ALDW will do OK, timing is the name of the game!
Before my retirement I worked on offshore rigs for SEDCO and ENSCO, than I moved on to EXXON. The drilling business is a small but close fraternity. As a subcontractor it takes time to prove that your product is real and will do the job. IEVM broke the, shall we say, fraternity. Many competitors to EP are looking. If the buzz is that Excelyte is the scavenger that works and is a money winner, the copy cats will come. I have owned IEVM for over a year, after reading and article on RigZone. I knew it would brake in. This new management is with it!
ALDW is a volatile MLP. It is a well manage MLP. It has 1 refinery in Big Spring Texas. Because of this location ALDW can take advantage of significant discount, Big Spring is not far from Midland and the Eagle Fort and Permian shale play. Yes the crack spread is good, but when you had the discount, WTI or WTS this crack spread is super good. Big Spring was modified last year and can use WTI or WTS and the daily capacity increase to 74,000 BPD. ALDW own and operate a chain of 7eleven, so its own its retail network. To make thing even better, ALDW is penetrating the retail gasoline/diesel Phoenix market, this is a big deal. Adding Phoenix to the Austin, Santa Fe, Amarillo, Midland, Odesa, San Angelo, Lubbock ETC... Puts ALDW in a very good position.
Now all refineries are prone to unscheduled shutdown, fact of life. I am up 20% this year. I have bought and sold ALDW 6 times this year. I do not own ALDW presently; do not plan to purchase ALDW for the next 60 days there about. I watch ALDW closely.
This is not a correction! The market policy is to deduct from the Xdate traded unit price the distribution. The general understanding is that the value of the MLP requires the deduction of the distribution. In other word assuming that the value of the MLP is $1 000 000 and $100 000 is distributed, the value becomes $900 000. I do not consider this as a correction.
Today the Xdate of ALDW started at $26 and closed at $24.23 a drop of $1.77. The real drop is $0.73. ALDW daily average high/low is $1.19 over the last 20 days. At this time ALDW is within its daily volatility. It is understood that the drop ALDW has seen during 2015-Q2 was 37% ($19.01/$26.00), for 2015-Q1 the drop was 39% ($15.81/$22.01). ALDW is a volatile MLP and is prone to shut down for turnaround or fires. The 2014-Q1 distribution was zero, nada, rien, trading ALDW has to be close to the vest. This comment is applicable to many refiners, what is considered small refiners compared with VLO or XOM.
I control the distribution of my IRA, so that my retirement plus the distribution never exceed the minimum taxable income as per the IRS table. I would exceed and pay taxes for an emergency only. So far it works. My age forces me to take a distribution, but I still stay with the minimum income. My wife and I can live on a secretary income; we still travel and go out once in a while.
We all have our trading tactics! Mine is to track the daily percent change between the unit price the day before the preceding Xdate and the daily price. Looking at several quarters, one can see a pattern, but not always. I will usually buy on that low percent and sell at the top of the bump. Not really interested in the distribution. There are possible taxes associated with it, and I want to stay tax free. I just pay taxes on my IRA distribution sometimes.
Excellent analysis of the Saudi Kingdome. I do question the Saudi currency reserve. The Kingdome population is very small, and the earning, in dollar, has been study and huge over the years. The currency reserve is not in Billion dollar and or gold but in Trillion. The king may have to sell some assets, most likely outside the Kingdome. The Saudis did not start this crash without researching the subject. There are two goals in the Saudis policy:
1. To keep or increase their market share by keeping their production high, which floods the world market with crude.
2. To keep in check the Iranian #$%$ religious theology. The Saudis believe they are the guardian are the Sunni faith, and of Mecca. They will do whatever is necessary to keep it that way.
My question is: Can the Saudis keep OPEC a closed cartel? At some point several OPEC members with large population will not be able to keep up with large social budgets but small O&G earnings. Terrorism is in the middle of this policy. Is it possible to question the Saudi motif of the crude oil crash? It is really to bankrupt the competition, or to control Iran revenue and competition. Crude at $50 or lower cannot support the amortization of very large petroleum projects. Few projects are economically viable beyond 25 years. Exxon for example amortizes its JV projects over 5 to 10 years only. Added to the economics the political stability with the JVs becomes too risky.
The Saudis will have to support the Sunni nations, or their policy will fail. Iran cannot sell what it does not produce. Stay tunes, the ending is closer than we believe.
ALDW has been a huge winner for me, since the start of 2015. Refiners are the potential winners in this O&G market. E&Ps have their hand tie by the WTI index price. Few are able to stay above crude (water). In a shale play the need to keep the IP and EUR balance means that drilling has to take place. If not the EUR production rate takes over. EUR means 50% less production or even less.
The refiners have to be classified as on the GOM or inland, off the GOM. The main 3 are ALDW, NTI and CVRR. What makes them profitable are: Their ability to use multi API grade crude and the most important, location, location, location. ALDW is located in Big Spring near Midland and the Permian / Eagle Fort play. The lack of pipeline throughput to Houston and the GOM is beneficial to ALDW in buying WTI / WTS at a good discount. The new, just announce in the last conference call, is that ALDW has entered the Phoenix Arizona gasoline / diesel market. ALDW refined product is competitive with the California production. California crude source are ANS and Brent, both costlier than Big Spring feed stock. The buzz of ALDW spinning off its storage and pipeline will be beneficial. This new MLP would be able to muster the capital necessary to build more storage and pipelines to deserve the Phoenix market. From the conference call, ALDW would retain the new units of this new MLP.
NTI does not have the same advantages, although it may change. CVRR refineries in Arkansas may not benefit from the same discounted feed stock. Bottom line I have not been as lucky with CVRR and NTI.
By the way “Professor” MLPs do not have “divvy” (dividend) MLPs distribute their net profits. In other words all the money left after all expenses are deducted such as: management fees, maintenance, interests, reserves, amortization etc.. MLP have what is defined as “Distributions”.
Yes the divvy will go to the new buyer, but on Xdate the unit will drop the amount of the distribution and most likely more drop. So really you can have the divvy, I will bank the bump and buy back when you sale because NTI will have drop 8% within 30 days. Guess who is the winner??
My conclusion is, the postponement of mega projects by the majors will over times impact the replacement of world reserve. 5% of the world reserve is depleted every year. 2 years postponement equates 10% and 4 years 20% loss reserves. These projects postponements are based on the amortization of these projects. From inception through first oil 5 years has passed by. Lower crude oil price means longer amortization. Can a major wait 30 years or more for the amortization of an “elephant”? My guess is not, the profitable production max around 20 to 25 years for billions projects. It has to do with the equipment life and the field pressure drop. My experience with Exxon is that they will spend 10% to 15% more up front not to have a shut down for 5 years. Since they get paid in crude oil, shut down means big loses. After 5 years the contract terms changes.
Shale fracking production does not need huge (billions) up front money. The invested capital is spent over the life of the project to keep the IP-EUR balanced. The capital invested can be closely managed over time. Obviously there are several shale producers that will not survive; M&A will choose the survivors. As soon as the first well produces, an MLP IPO can generate the needed capital.
Sound to me that IEVM unloaded some of the 200MM shares that were approved. IEVM need the capital to setup the new South Texas plant.
What goes down will go up??
Yes, this assumption makes sense. ALDW deserves mostly the rural Texas region. There are several somewhat large markets, Albuquerque, Lubbock, Amarillo and El Paso. You cannot compare these markets with Phoenix and Tucson! The California refineries feed stock cost more because they use Brent or ANS crude oil. ANS has to be transported from Alaska on Tankers chartered by the Jones Act, so more expensive. I believe ALDW future is promising.
As for the possible new MLP, this would be logistic made up pipelines, transportation and storage. In the past there was an interest to spinoff the “7Eleven” from ALDW. I have not heard any more on this subject. From the comments of ALDW management, the ALDW assets spinoff would be still own by ALDW by owning units of this new MLP. ALDW would become a refiner wholesaler. All distribution and possibly retail would be part of the new MLP.
So much for the CCBN previous. $1.04 is absolutely outstanding. The race is on?? We should match $23.88 the 12 month high!