There was a 30 days turnaround that not only was maintenance but was also to modify the Big Spring refinery process, not too long ago. Today Big Spring can process the no spec WTI as well as WTS. I do not believe in a turnaround in the middle of the summer season.
The Xdate should be August 14. The data used for this distribution is closed 30 days before Xdate. It does take time to prepare the K8 required and it publication 8 days, or so, before Xdate.
Some believe that this market does not behave as in past years. Not too long ago the average owner of stock would keep it 6 years. Today it is more like 6 month. This is why this market is so volatile. I still believe in a $1.00 distribution give or take 10 cents. This market requires to have more and more nerves!!
My only explanation is the program sales based on percent drop. We are 45 minutes before closing passed the 10% drop. Many will sale regardless! It will be an interesting 2 weeks before Xdate!
The moving average today is 280,000 units or roughly 2 times the 10 days moving average, 152,000. A fire would produce this drop. I cannot find any news on a fire. The driving season is going full bore, should not be a negative? Just need some news so far 11% drop! That is extreme??
MSB is locked in providing iron ore to the great lakes. Unless steel billets are imported and shipped to the Great Lake area at a price advantage, MSB will be competitive.
US steel is not competitive when the finish steel is made with US labor. The example is the San Francisco bay bridge. The steel was Chinese and was shipped to San Francisco ready to install. The US labor which was union, was kept at minimum.
This situation is particularly true on all US Coastal area. Inland and particularly great lakes, US steel can compete even with union labor. The transport is the added cost that is in favor of US steel therefore MSB iron ore.
The largest importer of iron ore is China. China economy is on a down spin. Iron ore competition has to be first from Brazil for the East Coast and GOM. Australia as to be the competition for the West Coast. Getting imported iron ore to the Great Lakes must pass by the St Laurent. Expensive proposition.
MSB may be up the 10%, especially since the Locke is open!
The UBTI applies to the distribution only. Do not take the distribution and take the unit bump before Xdate. You are not subject to the UBTI. That is what I do; I time my purchases and sale when the bump equals the distribution. So far so good, it took me sometime before I understood all the intricacy of MLPs. You know that on Xdate the unit price will drop the distribution amount. Therefore the next Xdate will have gone up the distribution, unless the market goes south.
MLPs in an IRA or 401K are OK. You are not taxes as long as your income does not exceed the IRS taxable table. You have to add the distribution you take off your IRA or 401K to your income. The total is taxed as per the IRS table.
I am more than 70, so I have to take a distribution. I still do not go over the minimum tax. So I am tax free! Not complicated really.
The crack spread value used for Q2 distribution was stopped around 30 days before Xdate. The final date I used for Q2 was July 14 and the crack was $17.01. It takes time to process all the data get it approved by the BOD and get it publish 7 days before the Xdate. So 30 days before the Xdate is OK.
I had Q1 at $12.87. The future Q3 crack spread, so far is $21.32. I follow NTI, ALDW and CVRR and all are in the twenties so far for Q3. By the way, I use the 3.2.1. Crack Spread published by the EIA every day.
Sound like IEVM has finally hired an O&G experience individual as sales manager. This means that Excelyte will be the center piece in the marketing strategy.
O&G business is a closed in society, many CEOs are alumni of a few universities. The line managers know each other’s or know of each other’s. The drilling business is the same, closed in society.
Also, looks like the 200,000 new shares have been sold. The volume has been high this week! May be we will see an bounce back to $.08 soon.
I have 2015 Q2 at $14.91. I start the quarter 30 days before the xdate. I believe it take 30 days for management to come up with an approved distribution by the BOD. So far the Q3 2015 looks very good, $22.30, Q3 has only 11 days into the Q3.
NTI or Northern Tier Energy LP is a MLP. Northern Tier Energy GP LLC operates as the general partner. The GP has more than 1 refinery. The LP or MLP is diversified with a refinery in St Paul Park Minnesota, producing 89,000 BPD, a pipeline storage segment, a bakery and more than 150 conveyance stores.
NTI or Northern Tier Energy LP the MLP own and operate 1 refinery. NTI refinery is 1 of four refineries in the Upper Great Plains area within the PADD II region. There has been talk to add a second refinery to the MLP assets. So far it has not happen.
To note: There are 4 refineries in Minnesota or PADD II with the same process capabilities, but own by another concern.
NTI as well as ALDW are a MLP with assets limited to 1 refinery. These refineries are totally dependent on Crack Spread and more particularly discounted to the crude oil price. These refineries are inland, away from the GOM. The discounts are totally dependent on the pipeline trough put going to the GOM. The case of NTI is based on the Minnesota gas stations; ALDW is dependent on the 200 plus gas stations in Texas, New Mexico. NTI depend on the Bakken discount price where as ALDW depend on the Eagle Fort Midland WTI production.
So have your pick, NTI is a good potential. I have made a killing with ALDW. Timing is essential versus xdate. The down side with these MLPs is a fire in the refineries. You cannot see one coming. When it comes, the units drop like a brick, you have to be following these MLPs every days, all the time.
There is always a bounce 30 days, or so, before xdate. Sometime it is up, sometime it is down. The quarter it should be up?
So far the Crack spread is $2.00 down the crack spread of before the crash, September 2014. The September 2014 distribution was $1.11.
$.80 distribution sound right, I would go for as much #$%$90.
Under the present situation refiners are the best choices. I have to qualify refiners: The refiners off the GOM such as ALDW are well situated to get descent discounts. The WTI and WTS are over produced and the pipeline flow rates are not enough to accommodate the production. ALDW Big Spring refinery is especially well placed to get excellent discounts because it location near Midland TX.
ALDW Big Spring has modified it process and is able to use WTI or WTS. This makes ALDW, in my view, a good investment. NTI is located in Minnesota and get its discount from the North Dakota production overflow. NTI has changed daddy, I believe WNR, need to understand what WNR wants to do. VLO is on the GOM and has invested $3 billion in modifying its 3 refineries to use WTS. The Brent was a better deal, because the API degree favored the production of more diesels. Diesel means export and good profits. HFC is another possibility.
I hold a bunch of ALDW, and so far so good. If you are investing in O&G what are the choices you have:
E&P are down because the prices are down. These prices will stay down for sometimes. When they start to go up it will be very slow.
The pipelines stock are an alternative, their earnings are fee based. The price of the oil or gas does not matter. The quantity of crude or gas dictates the earnings.
The refiners off the GOM are the best way to make a profit. Their profit base is the Crack Spread. So far this quarter the Crack for ALDW, NTI and CVRR average $17.85. I am using the EIA data but these 3 MLPs have discount because of the over production and their location inland away from the GOM. In the O&G play these are the most promising.