It looks like Osiris could collect somewhere between $18 to $75 million in royalties per year from Mesoblast for the GvHD Prochymal product...once approved in the USA. That looks to be sometime in the 2017-2018 time frame. Nice no sweat income stream for Osiris.
An interesting comparison is Bluebird BIO (BLUE) at $89 a share. They have cell products for liquid and solid tumor cancers that are in various phases 1,2 and 3 trials. Nothing approved yet. They have about $20 million in annual revenue, 36 million in outstanding shares and about 3.5 million Shorts. Their share price two years ago was around $18 and it has been as high as $192, but now back down to $89. Their basic stats look pretty pretty much the same as Osiris.
This goes to show what a share price can do when it is in favor with Wall Street.
Osiris will be in the penalty box until they get a couple of new catalyst. 1) I believe we are getting very close to receiving approval for the last two MACs and this will almost immediately increase Grafix revenues by 17%. 2) I believe Stryker is on track to quickly arrive at their $199 million BIO4 forecast and these monies will reshape the landscape.
This may take a couple more quarters beforel they can show $100 million annually from Grafix, $200 million from BIO4 and perhaps another $25 million from Cartiform and then this will make everything nice again!
By the way, Google "bio4 lifprocedure" like market_mania previously suggested and you will be treated to a beautiful two page Stryker BIO4 brochure. This will give you the idea that Stryker is running with BIO4.
At one point Medtronic's INFUSE had over $700 million in sales and now they are plagued with alleged problems with bone overgrowth, Cancer and all sorts of bad things. Their INFUSE sales are dropping like a rock. BIO4 is poised to take up challenge. BIO4 is going to be big, very BIG.
Because the auditing firm asked them to change to a cash accounting method as opposed to the accrual method. When you make a major change in your accounting method of accounting of course its going to be "material". You can spin it all you want, but Osiris is selling their products and lots of it, sorry to disappoint you.
That is an outlandish statement certainly intended to hurt Osiris' reputation. This was a very complicated transaction and one of the mos well known auditing firms in the country didn't get it right the first, second and even the third time. Osiris did everything they could to present the data accurately and using the "fraud" word is pure evil and yes, it does smack of a selfish agenda.
"Today’s BGS Landscape"
"Market Watch by Jennifer Ryan and Premdharan Meyyan on September 16th, 2015"
"As a new segment in BGS, few cell-based matrix products are yet available on the U.S. market. In total, eight products have been brought to market since 2009: AlloStem (AlloSource), Osteocel Plus (NuVasive), Trinity Evolution and Trinity ELITE (Orthofix), Cellentra VCBM (Zimmer Biomet), map3 Cellular Allogeneic Bone Graft (RTI Surgical), ViviGen Cellular Bone Matrix (DePuy Synthes) and BIO4 Viable Bone Matrix (Stryker and Osiris Therapeutics), Medtronic – INFUSE."
"The initial three products offered in 2009 (Osteocel Plus, Trinity Evolution and AlloStem) continue to lead the cell-based matrix market, granting NuVasive, Orthofix and AlloSource status as key players."
The DBM (Demineralized Bone Matrices) market is estimated to be $600 million in 2015. DBM is bone putty and BIO4 is a bone putty substance. Stryker estimates they will do $199 million or 1/3rd of this market.
Stryker’s estimates makes sense to me and with their powerhouse sales force, I think they can easily do the $199 million.
This market segment is worth well over $1 billion dollars and I've got to believe that Osiris has more bone growth products in the pipeline. The future looks very bright in this segment and Stryker is right in the midst of this market.
Google the subject line to find the whole article.
But with Celgene, that would have to be a complete buyout of Osiris and that is not going to happen, at least not anytime soon. A merger with Mesoblast where Osiris would become the dominant force would be a better option for both companies. With both companies combined Osiris could probably push Prochymal across the FDA goal line and from there, billions of dollars could flow for the Prochymal product. The synergy between the two companies would be awesome.
I'm still here and holding tight onto my Osiris shares. This recent slide was a manufactured event, probably orchestrated by Brean and totally ignored by the real longs. This event did reveal which investors are the real longs.
Yes, I've believed all along that a BIO4 buyout was the Stryker strategy all along. If that comes to fruition the selling price will be somewhere between $1 billion to $1.2 billion based upon a $200 million revenue stream. That would send shock waves through the share price. That would tack on at least $20 to the existing share price.
The true value of Osiris is certainly not factored into the share price right now.
Menvivo might generate upfront cash of at least $5 million, which is another catalyst not seen by the general public.
I'm also wondering if someday we could see a merger with Mesoblast at some point...if the right time would surface. Do you think Peter might entertain that idea?
"November 18 2015"
"Osiris Therapeutics to Present at the Canaccord Genuity Medical Technology and Diagnostics Forum"
"COLUMBIA, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIR), a leading cellular and regenerative medicine company focused on developing and marketing products to treat conditions in wound care, orthopaedics and sports medicine, announced today that Lode Debrabandere, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer, is scheduled to present at the Canaccord Genuity Medical Technology and Diagnostics Forum on Thursday, November 19, 2015 at 2:30 p.m. ET at the Westin Grand Central Hotel, in New York, NY."
"A live webcast of the presentation may be accessed through the Investors page of the Company's website..."
Thank you! You are spot on.
As I see it, Osiris is still the same company they were when the share price was $18. For those of you who are wondering, I haven't sold one share.
The Grafix market share is growing quarter over quarter and we've seen lots of evidence that Arthrex is selling Cartiform. I believe Stryker has become convinced that BIO4 is the latest "stat-of-the-art" bone repair product and sales are mounting there too. And now, Osiris has sold a $700 thousand dollar firm order to an international distributor, thus expanding the market even more.
For the record, I finally had to put all of the MiMedx bashers on "ignore" as they were ruining my view of the message board. This dip also brought out the true colors of a couple of Osiris investors too, who turned out weren't really strong investors after all and they've made my ignore list too. Blaming someone else for investment misplays is very juvenile.
Following the herd can cause you to lose your shares to the institutions and large funds who are like ravenous wolves anxiously trying take your shares.
I normally don't use the ignore feature, but that is not a bad idea. So, I bid ado to the insane bashers.
I too noticed the absence of a Cartiform mention, but I understand why. Reinhold Schmieding is an extremely private person an any publicity about his private domain is met with disdain. His company is a private company and legally he doesn't have to divulge anything. I'm sure he has put a gag on Osiris an Osiris will only say what is legally necessary. We probably won't ever hear anything much about Arthrex Cartiform sales.
The story I heard was that Mr. Schmieding has only granted one media interview in his lifetime and he canceled that meeting 20 minutes before it was to begin. He also keeps a tight reign on the lips of all his executives too, in fact, all of his employees have learned to keep private things private. But, that is all OK with me as long as Osiris' revenue keep climbing like it has thus far.
The Stryker estimates are $199 million and I'm sure that is what you meant to say, but I'd say $299 million will be no problem for them.
Osiris will have a little stay in the penalty box for a while, but the numbers will straighten themselves out. I see big money is starting to creep in and that has me wondering if maybe this little flub was a planned event?
Thanks for posting, your comments are always appreciated.
Questions you forgot to ask...
Why are MiMedx VA sales decreasing?
Why does MiMedx keep getting "investigations" launched against them?
Why are there so many advertisements from law firms seeking a plaintiff against Mimedx?
Why was the MiMedx chief executive investigated for insider trading?
Why hasn't MiMedx ever run an independent trial for Epifix?
Why does MiMedx keep disagreeing with the FDA, seemingly over every issue?
Why hasn't MiMedx received that letter of resolution from your FDA untitled letter? You know, the one MiMedx posters have been saying that they will receive "any day now"? Its only been two years or you still going to receive it "any day now"?
MiMedx posters were also saying that Epifix was going to skip Phase 3 and go straight to FDA approval and two years later, they are still waiting. And still no quality trial?
Why would MiMedx put two paid employees on the Epifix judging panel? Surely not to influence the efficacy percentage?
More and more stories found all around the country...
"The South Shore Hospital Center for Wound Healing (Weymouth, Massachusetts) has a growing experience using Grafix in patients experiencing difficult-to-heal wounds, which have an adverse impact on their quality of life. The short form 36 health survey (SF-36) is used to assess patients' quality of life, and we observed that the scores for many patients with chronic wounds are comparable to those of cancer patients. Patients are selected to be treated with Grafix if their wound does not reduce by 50% after 4 weeks of treatment with proper off-loading and adequate vascular status or if wounds persist for 2 years. In addition, many of the wounds seen at the wound care center have failed other advanced wound therapies, including Apligraf® (Organogenesis, Canton, MA), and therefore, are also candidates for treatment with Grafix. To date, approximately 10–15 patients have been treated or continue to receive treatment with Grafix. Although it is recommended for Grafix to be applied weekly, we sometimes apply Grafix bi-weekly if the wound size is rapidly decreasing."
I believe Dr. Debrabandere mentioned that there are about 2 million DFUs and about 1 million of them are non-healing. They are called non-healing because other DFU products and procedures have failed to close these DFUs. Grafix is well positioned to take a very large piece of this market.
There is another large Grafix market that Osiris hasn't even approached yet, it is the common pressure bed sore that nursing homes are plagued. This is a huge problem for Nursing Homes and I believe Osiris will eventually be allowed to train nurses to use Grafix. This market could double Grafix sales...but this is out into the future.
“In practice, Grafix grafts have been quite useful in closing difficult wounds, including complex wounds with tendon and bone exposure,” says Dr. Suzuki, the Medical Director of the Tower Wound Care Center at the Cedars-Sinai Medical Towers in Los Angeles. “We believe it is one of the most effective skin substitute grafts on the market today, possibly even more effective than the patients’ own split-thickness skin grafts.”
So, you get stopped out of your Osiris position and now you feel like you have to snipe at everyone else. It happens, get over it.