Good points. This little relief rally is unlikely to hold. Next move down should find the bottom.
From zero hedge:
As Zero Hedge first reported today, shortly before noon one (and subsequently more) FX brokers advised clients that any existing Ruble positions would be forcibly closed out because "western banks have stopped pricing USDRUB", over concerns of Russian capital controls. Ironically, it was this forced liquidation of mostly short RUB positions that pushed the RUB higher, which in turn had a briefly favorably impact on energy commodities and risk assets, as the market had by then perceived the Ruble selloff as excessive. Of course, since nothing had actually changed aside from a temporary market technical, the selloff promptly resumed into the close of trading once the market finally understood what we had explained hours previously.
I am not buying here, I am waiting for the first bankruptcy and see if more occur. On the plus side, TPLM got its credit line extended a week or so ago so at least some credit is available to these drillers.
However, if this crash in prices happens like the last two, then we'll get a rally in which the big money sells and then another collapse.
Okay, so they are buying the puts with the written call premiums and it's a wash. So take your barrels per day and multiply by $87.40 as of the month the options expired.
He and Cramer are the two best contrarian indicators in the market. Both are momentum players, nothing more.
I'm less worried about s short term drop into the 30s or 40s for WLL than I am about what happens to stock price when the first then second then third bankruptcy rolls in.