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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

paidbasher38291 3390 posts  |  Last Activity: May 21, 2015 1:22 AM Member since: Oct 16, 2009
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  • paidbasher38291 by paidbasher38291 May 21, 2015 1:22 AM Flag

    looks like Arch is entering that market, just announced as the reinsurer for Westpac's captive insurer, displacing QBE, but no doubt will be going after Genworth's relationship with NAB later this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • anyone who can do even basic math should realize that, given the way these companies operate, mtg is going to generate steady earnings growth for years to come, the crisis era books will generate fewer and fewer delinquencies as they move through the loss curve, until there are few losses at all, losses incurred were still 81M in Q1, that number is going to shrink quarterly, until it is below $10M a quarter, in the meantime mtg's premium growth will grow, and with any hope interest rates will rise and they can earn more than 2% on their investment portfolio, nothing short of another housing crisis will change this trend, so what is a company worth that steadily earns $600M a year and growing, I think a 10P/E is fair, meaning this stock price has a long way to go up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paidbasher38291 by paidbasher38291 Apr 20, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    there is much more enterprise value than being assessed by the market, even with today's rally, i don't think people fully appreciate what both the pmiers and llpa changes will do to benefit the mi industry, especially the legacy players like mtg.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    earnings

    by paidbasher38291 Apr 17, 2015 12:03 PM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 Apr 18, 2015 9:48 PM Flag

    just need the market to properly value the company now, i have modeled out mtg's existing book, and figure the runoff value of the equity is worth at least $6B, and probably more, especially if they rip up those reinsurance deals that are no longer necessary.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PMIERS announcement

    by jmf0386 Apr 17, 2015 5:12 PM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 Apr 18, 2015 9:46 PM Flag

    if people know how to properly interpret this, then yes, it should, on another note, though, mtg needs to fire whoever is in charge of their marketing, the final pmiers were hugely positive for any of the legacy companies, but while rdn put a properly good spin on things, if you read mtg's press release you wouldn't realize anything good happened, same thing when the draft came out, mtg's stock took a hit because their initial press released made it look like they were going under, then a couple days later they clarified it, but by then the damage is done, rdn on the other hand has been nothing but positive the whole way through, and it worked out fine for them, but #$%$ press releases notwithstanding, this is a major win for mtg, any financial worries from the crisis are behind them as of yesterday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PMIERS announcement

    by jmf0386 Apr 17, 2015 5:12 PM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 Apr 18, 2015 9:41 PM Flag

    look at the draft vs final charges for 2005-2008 loans, RDN as usual did a much better job than MTG in highlighting what it means to the legacy guys, the 2005-2008 charges are half what they were in the draft, in rdn's case I think they said it meant 800M+ less in required assets, in mtg's case it has to be at least as much, possibly more, yeah not getting credit for premium sux, but there is a much smaller charge for the legacy books so that more than evens it out, the biggest thing for mtg is that even without counting their reinsurance agreements, they will be compliant by year end based on retained earnings alone, that is HUGE for them, what would be ideal is if they could rip up those reinsurance deals and retain the profit from that business, which they should be able to do since most deals like that have a provision that they can be canceled if the primary insurer doesn't get credit for the reinsurance, bottom line is this is very, very, very positive for mtg, definitely not dilution, holdco cash can be retained for debt servicing and retirement, reinsurance agreements are likely not even necessary, win, win, win

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paidbasher38291 by paidbasher38291 Apr 17, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    i think earnings will be good, but secondary to the pop we are going to see when the new rules come out, and the gfees are reduced, if a capital raise is off the table, and/or more reinsurance is not needed (and let's be real, reinsurance is not great for shareholders), then it is clear sailnig ahead, mtg will be able to grow through retained earnings, take advantage of an expanding market, and even, dare to dream, pay dividends again some day, you may laugh, but i don't think that is too far in the future, once the legacy issues are fully behind them, and that is getting closer every day, the new busienss will spin of huge profits, mtg is positioned to dominate this industry once again, and i believe the new leadership will take them to the top.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Gfees

    by paidbasher38291 Apr 16, 2015 10:45 AM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 Apr 16, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    you are more than welcome, i used to follow this industry some time ago, mostly taking short positions, but then dropped it once the gses stopped shutting them down, figured these guys would be in limbo for awhile, licking their wounds, etc, but after i read the imf piece this week, then saw the earnings announcement, and finally the wsj piece this morning, i put 2 and 2 together and figured there might be some positive news coming out next week, so went massively long this morning, i think this co is incredibly well positioned to take advantage of the turmoil in the housing finance sector, plus i like the change in management, i thought the old ceo was a bit of a dolt, and what i have found with these companies is promoting someone out of sales into a leadership role in a risk retention company is a recipe for disaster, and history is on my side in that belief, but the new guy, even though he is an insider, comes from the finance side, so is more of a numbers guy, which is exactly what you want in this type of company, on top of that, they have a huge advantage in operating leverage over the competition, their expense ratio is industry -leading, which is going to be important in the new environment these guys are facing, as they get opportunity to take huge chunks of risk off the government, you need that low expense base to make the numbers work, rdn in contrast is much less efficient, so much less upside imho, let me know if you have any other questions going forward, like i said i got pretty deep into this industry a while ago, i just need to dust off my models a bit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Gfees

    by paidbasher38291 Apr 16, 2015 10:45 AM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 Apr 16, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    inside mortgage finance said yesterday that they would be released "early next week", and today the wsj had a report on potential gfee changes, and it has been long rumored that these two releases would occur concurrently, so it could be as early as tomorrow, and I would guess monday at the latest, I doubt mtg would announce earnings while they have the regs in hand, but before they are released to the public, so def before tuesday am.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Gfees

    by paidbasher38291 Apr 16, 2015 10:45 AM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 Apr 16, 2015 2:39 PM Flag

    this is a $14 stock by this summer, I think. according to industry reports, the MIs already have the pmiers in their hands, and this week mtg announced earnings will be released on tuesday, wonder if it is because they are anxious to release good news?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paidbasher38291 by paidbasher38291 Apr 16, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    sounds like gfees are coming down for high ltv loans - nothing but positive for the MI companies, their market share versus the fha should continue to grow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Paulson is all in on MTG!

    by stocker4949 Jun 17, 2013 10:07 AM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 Jun 17, 2013 12:42 PM Flag

    yup, just like he was all-in on PMI.

  • paidbasher38291 by paidbasher38291 May 30, 2013 7:55 PM Flag

    70M+ new shares from the recently issued converts, that is a heck of an overhang.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Q3 report 2012 50%

    by jnivard May 28, 2013 3:29 PM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 May 28, 2013 3:39 PM Flag

    irrelevant, TGIC the holding company no longer owns a mortgage insurance company.

  • Reply to

    72M new share will be issued at $6.95

    by paidbasher38291 May 10, 2013 2:18 PM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 May 12, 2013 4:47 PM Flag

    500M face value of convertible bonds, each bond has a face value of $1000, so there are 500,000 bonds outstanding, each bond is convertible into 143.8332 shares, 143,8332 * 500,000 = 71.916M shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • paidbasher38291 by paidbasher38291 May 10, 2013 2:18 PM Flag

    that is going to be a tough, tough number to overcome, massive dilution if the stock price rises above that, and that is dilution with no additional capital, those bonds have already been sold.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    MBIA Settlement - BUY signal for MTG

    by rogue_trader_666 May 6, 2013 12:52 PM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 May 6, 2013 1:34 PM Flag

    true, mtg only paid up for the loans they rescinded, now they are negotiating how much they will pay up for the claims they curtailed, there is a fundamental difference between financial guaranty and mortgage insurance, the financial guarantors like mbi have a contractual obligation to pay claims first, if they dispute those claims they have to sue to recoup their money, for the mortgage insurers the situation is the opposite, the mortgage insurers have the right to deny/rescind claims, and if the insured disagrees, the insured sues to get the claims paid, that's why when mtg settled, they had to put up $100M in extra reserves, and when MBI settles, they are going to get money back, exact opposite situation.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    MBIA Settlement - BUY signal for MTG

    by rogue_trader_666 May 6, 2013 12:52 PM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 May 6, 2013 1:18 PM Flag

    you do realize that MTG already settled with BAC and had to put up an additional $100M in reserves...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 May 1, 2013 10:42 PM Flag

    yep, taking a 10 roe on long tailed loss business sure is a sweet business model...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    GNW vs RDN

    by daicheng0722 May 1, 2013 12:01 PM
    paidbasher38291 paidbasher38291 May 1, 2013 1:05 PM Flag

    rdn admitted they are writing new business at a 10% roe, which is just about half what genworth claims they are getting for the same business, i ain't great at math, but if both are right, that means, with genworth's 12% market share, they are generating as much profit as rdn, but with half the downside risk (and capital consumption), pretty easy decision which company to invest in.

ORI
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