Thank you for the info. I bought some of MACK but with what you're saying I think I'll try and get a buck or two out of it and move on. I agree with you in the sense that small bio rally is going on right now. At the same time, the whole market has had a late year rally. I think bio's are actually lagging considering the rest of the market. I'll look into AVAV a little more. Looks interesting.
Finally, what'd you think of ECYT's last CC? I though it interesting that the lowest dosage of 1456 has stabilized the disease and that they are in cohort 4. What are your thoughts if they make it through 4 and into 5? I always appreciate you're pragmatic input. :)
I don't think they will pursue 145 unless they get a partner. They have to manage their money closely now since they don't have one. With the cash burn and the way the market is beating this stock up and keeping it at cash value, I think the price goes down as they burn through their reserves. So they have a really dicey time ahead for them right now.
So far though, the news coming from 1456 is very good, and I can hope that value starts being assigned to it. I agree with what you are saying. Who knows maybe they will make an in road into the inflammatory realm with 1169. There is a lot of arthritis out there.
but I'm a little concerned with the light volume. Going to call it how I see it. Need a partner for 145. Need 1456 to make it to cohort 5 then on to phase 2 with good results. If either of those things happen then we'll go to the teens. In the mean time, the shorts are going to keep jerking this around. I'm long but this is how I see it unless the Bio Bull comes back around.
it kind of struck me today as to why this would trade as cash value. I noticed there has been a law suit filed but if there weren't enough people that came forward to make it worth the while then I could see a company taking on a full out attack to try and recoup their money. It could be even spite where the big money just wants to keep pulling it down to make it difficult on the company. Thoughts?
Couple things that I want to highlight here.
1. Bios are in a bear market. Look at SGEN, up almost 3 bucks last week on some good news and is almost back down to it's low. So for the bashers on this board that are saying this company sucks then need to take a macro look at everything.
2. I felt that their ability to get into the 4th cohort was pretty significant. Also was nice to hear that they expect to get the results from the NSCLC trial in the early part of next year. I took that to mean that the patient or patients are still alive which is always a good things. I want to make money like everyone else but I like to remember that people's lives are on the lines here. I would like to think that this company could maybe come up with a cure.
3. Which leads me to my third point, EC 1456 performs well against triple negative breast cancer. In fact, with that disease in mice, 1456 cured it. I was keenly interested in how they are taking different diseases and putting them in mice and treating them then developing a model off of it. I'm not sure if this is the regular practice but it sounds like a very cost efficient way to conduct analysis on your drug and how it might react in a human being.
4. I don't think we will see this stock go up for a while. it will probably trade flat for a good while till we get a positive reading somewhere.
Here are my wishes:
Partner for Vintafolide
Fast track for 1456
Oh and how about the other drugs they have in the pipeline and how they want to try treating inflammation! Something has to succeed somewhere.
It's going to take some patience and some steel stomachs, but one day we'll be rich.
Shorty in Aspen, if you read this please share your thoughts. I'm always interested in what you have to say.
Also, when you listen to the CC, these two patients were in the 1st cohort on the weakest drug dose. That holds some meaning that if at the lowest dose it stabilized the disease.
Apparently the market didn't like what was put out. The market might be in a bull phase, but I'm still convinced BIOs are a Bear.
For Endocyte, can you please get a partner for EC 145. That would help us out a TON!!!
so I hate to say it, and I've been in this stock now for over a year. This stock always goes up before earnings. It might continue after earnings then it will settle back down. For this conference call I figure that they will give guidance on how they are moving forward. After it is over, the market will price in the how much the trials they are starting are costing and we will see this thing trend back down to a level where the money spent is already factored in. I don't think we will see much upside until we here something in phase 2 that is positive or that they got a partner for EC 145. I like this company and the management team, but we have a lot more pain to feel going forward. It's rather quite depressing.
Biotechs are being taken down across the board. Look at SGEN, PCYC, and others. From a company perspective, the future of the share price is going to depend a lot on what gets put out in the quarterly earnings meeting. Then wait three more months to have the complete OS number from the NSCLC trial. I think analysts are going to be hugely critical of the decisions that the management team makes going forward. The company is at a very risky stage right now. 1456 is unknown but shows potential and 145 showed potential but is 10yrs old. What do you do in this situation? Ultimately, they need to get a drug marketed and they need to show results. From an investing standpoint, I would like to hear how they have struck a partnership for 145 again and that they will use their cash on hand to dev out 1456 and the other drugs in their pipeline that they have to shelve because they don't have the money to dev them. Just my two cents. Oh and did I say the market is horrid right now???? Common sense here folks and lots of prayers to the right business decisions being made as well as a drug approval.
Would also be nice to see the data take longer. The longer it takes the better the drug is performing aka the person/people are still alive. We have a long wait ahead of us.
but I think the sector as a whole got beat up today. Look at the big boys Merck & Roche. Both have some big drugs that have potential and both were pretty much flat today. IMO the sector as a whole is getting beat up and investor. The whole market is in a weird place right now. People are scared and there is a lot of uncertainty. Just have to be patient and wait for it to turn around.
Roche also just posted this as well:
Roche breast cancer drug shows "unprecedented" survival benefit....
If Roche were to try and partner with ECYT that would be pretty amazing. Remember, 1456 had curative results in breast cancer....
to watch the enthusiasm turn into major skepticism today. It seems the bashers/shorts showed up as well. Look at the crazybear post on pulse. There is a major bashing article out there. Waiting for the CC and hopefully it isn't a bomb like the last non-quarterly one was. haha
Smile, thanks. I would love to see this thing rocket to the moon on Monday, but I'm trying to think how the management would proceed with this data. It might be why there is a CC on Monday. Now if someone were to offer to come in and partner to put 145 in the market then that would be awesome and might actually happen. Without it though, I don't know if management will proceed with turning it into a drug. Those decisions I think are going to be what drives the share price.
I was not able to hear the presentation, but I did look over the poster. There is a couple things with this company that I think are important to note.
1. Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought I remember Ron saying they needed the OS to be longer than 11 months to proceed with turning this into a drug. It was 10.8 with 80% of the data. So theoretically, it could be 11 months by the time all the data is in.
2. With this data, will they try to market the drug or will they try to roll it into the 1456 drug trials. IMO that is where we will see the biggest increase in price share. If they do not decide to turn 145 into a marketable drug, we will see the price share increase a little but not too much.
3. It looks like they posted some data about PROC. Some of it actually looked positive which was against what the DSMB was saying. I'm thoroughly confused there.
Overall, I think the data validates the platform and shows that this company has a viable product. How they proceed is going to be the big question. I do hope and pray this goes into the teens/20's and higher. I hold over 3k shares from a year ago. It was painful to see it go from 30 to 5.60, but I believe in this company. Hopefully with patience, I will be well rewarded. I am long and hope one day to make a major profit.
I think with the complications that Endocyte experienced with the PROC drug, Merck wasn't willing to wait for it to get fixed. They instead decided to shed several of their partnerships and buy a company. They withdrew from the Endocyte partnership without knowing what the NSCLC results were.