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UNİTEK GLOBAL SERVİCES Message Board

pajacobsen 29 posts  |  Last Activity: May 13, 2015 2:23 PM Member since: Aug 9, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Currency, summary, and forecast.

    by p_a.jacobsen May 11, 2015 10:36 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen May 13, 2015 2:23 PM Flag

    All,

    Since the results from the acquired +50 bodies are not included in this quarter, but will be in next, we might actually end up with a "surprise" for the analysts.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Back in...@2.37

    by koto_no1 May 12, 2015 12:29 PM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen May 12, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    stokluver,

    This does not look like panic selling at all. Rather it looks like a planned sale of +500 thousand units.

    At this volume a per share price drop of $0.30 is not bad. Certainly, in the past, we have seen bigger drops on fractions of this volume.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • pajacobsen by pajacobsen May 6, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    Hello,

    First, is it reasonable to expect earnings to be out on 5/14/15?

    Second, I found the year-end earnings call to be quite unusual. The 300% growth bantered around, for instance, was really hard to quantify because the team were unwilling to reveal the base number, i.e. the number of units sold in the quarter (I can't use the term coy here, because they were pressed pretty hard and did not provide a simple numerical answer,) leaving it to the imagination what 300% growth in sales really means (for the record, when pressed, the answer was that the number of units sold was "not material," which to me means unit count in the 100s, making 300% growth pretty meaningless.)

    So, for me, the 300% promised growth is not what is interesting (and, in fact, I have some doubts as to whether or not the team understands how to sell high-volume enterprise class sales and whether or not the team knows how to manage a lot of cash-flow.) Rather the interesting thing about Vuzix is whether or not the technology is transferable in some way, form, or shape, and if so, whether this will translate into a significant gain in the market capitalization for the company.

    Currently, my operating assumption is that the Intel infusion of cash is a validation of such transferability and associated gain, and my short term hope is that the market will react positively to the improved balance sheet at Q1 earnings time. If we can get an uptake at the earnings release time (based on the Intel cash only,) we will be fine and can wait to see what happens over the year.

    Comments?

    Best,

    Pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    5 years consistent and rapid growth

    by pajacobsen Apr 14, 2015 2:51 PM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Apr 22, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    TA,

    Thank you for your note. I actually think that things are going well. I prefer this price level and volume because it is possible to stealth-buy.

    With respect to your other comment, I believe that the long term alignment with the CEO of Formula and Magic Software is anchored in his compensation agreement, which is publicly available. Short term, it is clear that one of the important criteria is to create dividend.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Positive currency impact?

    by hweb2 Apr 14, 2015 9:56 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Apr 14, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    hweb,

    You are not the only buyer! Clearly, for every seller, there is an eager counter-party.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • All,

    So coming up on earnings and with five years of stellar topline growth behind us and consistent quarterly profitability (show me another tech software company with that track record,) the question is not what Magic Software will do, but, rather, what it is going to take to get the market to move on MGIC.

    Honestly, I don't know. While growing from $75 million in annual revenues to an astonishing $175 million in revenues, the share price has hardly moved, and over the last years it has, in fact, gone down. Classic Buffett case, I guess.

    Still waiting, still holding.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Positive currency impact?

    by hweb2 Apr 14, 2015 9:56 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Apr 14, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    Newportrad,

    Your error, relative, to your previous posting, might be to assume that the post-dividend dump was limited to the amount of dividend. This fails to take into account the adjustment for the speculative runup.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Positive currency impact?

    by hweb2 Apr 14, 2015 9:56 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Apr 14, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    Newporttrad,

    This is most probably a manifestation of a common behavior for the per share price of MNDO, caused by a speculative wave leading up to the dividend. If you look over the last years numbers, you will see similar events.

    You can also read the MANY posts about this subject. This phenomena is now more than five years old and it is amply documented.

    There may -- or may not -- be a change this year, on the back-end of the structural changes and strong wins of last year, but we don't know if that is the case yet.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    so how bad will this quarter be

    by matt7586 Apr 14, 2015 1:15 PM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Apr 14, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    Matt,

    Well, the company has already provided an indication that any gain will be absorbed by the usual (exorbitant) annual dilution, so from an EPS standpoint nothing positive will happen YoY. Add to this that the company has a, hmm, track-record of not meeting expectations that it sets for itself, and I think you end up with a so-so picture.

    However, the ongoing dilution and continued expectation failure is nothing new for Click Software, so perhaps the impact in terms of PPS will be nothing.

    We will see, I guess.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Positive currency impact?

    by hweb2 Apr 14, 2015 9:56 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Apr 14, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    Hweb,

    Thank you for the note.

    Outside direct currency impact (i.e. currency impact on cash reserves,) currency impact is difficult to bracket when you are dealing with a triangulation (USD NIS, NIS EURO) or more (add NIS RON or EURO RON.) A lot depends on how the company's intercompany accounting is structured, something that investors can't easily learn about.

    Also, just to keep us honest, there are counter-effects: (1) the Euro seems to be recovering and (2) the per staff member cost is increasing in Romania as the local staff is gaining seniority (remember that Romanian based staff is close to 300, outsizing ROW by factor 6.)

    To my mind the real issue is the longevity of the revenue increase. If it stretches for another couple of quarters, there is potential for a significant momentum shift. If not, we may end up in the usual (unsexy but VERY comfortable corner.)

    We will see soon enough, I guess.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • It seems to be turning now, heading upwards again. The pre-adjusted close was 3.82, and today's low was $3.44. Good luck with your machinations.

  • Reply to

    Today's News

    by agnmills Feb 25, 2015 8:26 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 9, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Kopel Reem Software?

  • Reply to

    Vector Capital

    by thegunnerab Mar 6, 2015 6:03 PM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 9, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Flying_trader,

    You wrote: "Maybe... unless they turn in a killer qtr pretty soon... One GREAT qtr and this thing would be sitting in the low teens...s"

    The problem with searching for the great quarter is that the numbers seem to always be stacked against this -- primarily through an application of stock option charges (for instance, the guidance clearly show this pattern: "Non-GAAP fully diluted earnings per share of $0.09 to $0.15, excluding share-based compensation costs of approximately $0.12 per share, amortization of intangible assets of approximately $0.04 per share, and deferred taxes of approximately $0.01 per share.") Look back, and you will see that year after year of progress has been eaten up this way.

    So, I think that any relief will come through an outside deal, not numbers driven growth.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Fundamentals

    by pajacobsen Mar 6, 2015 12:37 PM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 9, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    All,

    Here is the fundamentals data that I could glean from the SandP report and open sources

    Fair Value Calc: $8.70 (from SandP -- generally, I find this measure to be accurate)
    Current Price: $6.70
    Gap: $2

    Market value: $300 mill.
    Cash on hand: $85 million
    Acct: receivables: $40 million
    Other assets: $90 million -- I tend to initially ignore these as they include intangibles, and, so, really mean very little to me.
    Total liabilities: $40 million -- neatly canceling out the acct receivables

    So, general "emergency dive" liquidation value: $85 +40 - 40 = $85 million, and, so adjusted market valuation is $215 million on a company that "sold" $165 million in 2014 and produced net operating income of $20 million, up 15% year over year for the last five years. Assuming that the cash value of five more years of operational performance (without dividend, acquisitions and all that jazz and with 10% interest) is $170 million plus the growing $85 million (interest!), we get a value of $300 million or so, leaving only the value of the intangibles, which, of course, includes IP.

    So in this snapshot, the question that I see is how much the IP is worth? If its worth the intangible, then SandP is close to dead on with their valuation, and we have a value gap of $100 million or so.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Question on tax treatment of dividend

    by schlomonugnats Mar 5, 2015 3:57 PM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 6, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    Form,

    I think you are absolutely correct in that holding any foreign dividend stock that is subject to withholding in an IRA is a mistake (equal to a 25% loss of dividend). My only point is that, based on one's personal situation, there are circumstances where holding such stock in a non-IRA is non-trivial.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

    P.S. Sadly, very few people that post on Yahoo's free-for-all boards can tell the difference between you're and your.

  • Reply to

    What do you think?

    by brucethesnake Mar 2, 2015 9:41 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 6, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    Form,

    I am not sure that I follow. Please elaborate.

    Thanks,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Question on tax treatment of dividend

    by schlomonugnats Mar 5, 2015 3:57 PM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 6, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    Form,

    You wrote: "Actually you do understand how it gets treated. it goes by country if they withhold taxes on dividends- Canada, France and Israel are just a few that do and you're best to hold those in a brokerage account to take advantage of the foreign taxes paid credit on your tax return. Use google to find countries that withhold and at what percent. Right now you have an incentive to sell before ex dividend date"

    Well, you have to be a little careful here. The tax situation is very volatile, depending on whether the dividend is considered qualified or not, whether or not one is subject to 3.8% MedC tax, and whether or not the company's income is viewed as passive.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    What do you think?

    by brucethesnake Mar 2, 2015 9:41 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 6, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    Bruce,

    So we are nearing the 11th hour, and as it stands it looks like the pre-ex dividend date sell-off has started, so I don't think $4 will be achieved.

    What happens after the dividend is a question of the aggresiveness of the post-dividend sell-off and whether there is a belief that the company can keep the booking/revenue tempo up.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    great report and strong dividend

    by baba_ganoush1 Mar 4, 2015 8:07 PM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 6, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    Report for anti-semitism instead. BTW, s&k is phoenixbud

  • pajacobsen by pajacobsen Mar 6, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    Hello All,

    Are there anyone here who has done a fundamentals analysis that they can share with the Board?

    Thanks,

    pajacobsen

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