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MER Telemanagement Solutions Ltd. Message Board

pajacobsen 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 1, 2015 4:29 PM Member since: Aug 9, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by colupshu Mar 1, 2015 2:03 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 1, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    ... continued

    I do, btw, believe that the dividend speculation wave has been becoming smaller and smaller, which means that the post-dividend drop has become smaller and smaller, too, trending towards zero, so it is quite possible that the per share price will continue climbing post dividend payout, but there is no certainty that this will be the case (if you doubt whether or not uneducated dividend speculators are still around, read the diverse message boards discussing Mind CTI and MNDO -- it makes for insane, but interesting reading.)

    I hope this helps.

    Regards,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by colupshu Mar 1, 2015 2:03 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 1, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    ... continued

    You can also look at the per share price development for other "smallish" companies in the sector who had some growth (my favorite example is Mer Telemanagement and its MTSL equity -- an MBA study masquerading as a company and stock.) The lessons and opportunity should be clear.

    ... continued

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by colupshu Mar 1, 2015 2:03 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 1, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    ... continued

    If you do wish to speak about future per share price as a function of fundamentals, you can simply look at the historic operating cash flow, value this using whatever time horizon suits you, and add to it the cash and cash equivalents on hand, and roll the dice on where the revenue, booking, and net income figures are going. This should be simple enough.

    ... continued

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by colupshu Mar 1, 2015 2:03 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 1, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    ... continued

    Now, all this being said, there is a glimmer of hope for the per share price right now if the revenue and booking pace can be kept up and we don't encounter any non-operating interruptions. Back in the 2003 to 2005 time frame, the revenue and booking curve trended nicely up, and the per share price followed, exploding onto the $6 level, before the ARS issue made any discussions about revenues, booking, and operating income null and void. From 2009 onwards we saw a nice recovery once the ARS issue was behind us, but this momentum was killed when Lloyd Miller liquidated their (sizeable) position within a matter of weeks in 2011.

    ... continued

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by colupshu Mar 1, 2015 2:03 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 1, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    Newport,

    Thanks. There are two more sections to the post, but, as usual, they are removed because of some content problem (no, I don't know what the problem is.)

    I will try to post the rest again.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by colupshu Mar 1, 2015 2:03 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Mar 1, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    Newport,

    Thanks for the question. Unfortunately, there is no simple answer (if there is an answer at all.)

    For sure you can conduct fundamentals analysis (we have done many times in the past, consistently resulting in a finding that MNDO was undervalued,) but since, historically since the extra-ordinary dividend paid out after the resolution to the ARS issue, I think, the real driver for the per share price has been dividend speculation, not fundamentals, so it has mostly been an exercise in futility.

    I do hope, of course, that MNDO's per share price will turn a corner, but, frankly, I am resigned to continue buying on the post-speculative dip using the dividend. At least that way, I have systematically benefited from the speculators' insanity over the years. In fact, the +$3 paid in dividends over the year is probably the real benchmark for success.

    By insanity, btw, I am referring to the fact that I have for a number of years run the numbers on the speculative wave, and taking into account the 121 days period rule determining whether or not the dividend should be considered qualified or not, there is, in my opinion, absolutely no way that the speculators have made any money whatsoever. Simply put the naivity of thinking that you can by some shares immediately before the ex-dividend date and make a profit is staggering. The simple fact is that if you take out $0.30 in dividend, the per share price is automatically and programmatically adjusted downwards $0.30 by Nasdaq, and so, the net gain for speculators is zero, and, with the immediate panic and sell-off that follows this surprising adjustment, the probable outcome for speculators is a loss (Sidenote: The junk articles on SA are, of course, neither objective, nor a representation of a deeper understanding of Mind CTI or MNDO, so reader be aware!)

    ... continued

  • pajacobsen by pajacobsen Feb 27, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Hello All,

    For years the per share price of MNDO has followed a pattern dominated by (often misguided) dividend speculation. Things, however, may very well change now.

    It is interesting to compare the last year's developments with the developments from 2003 through 2005. Back then the revenues followed a growth step pattern that is quite similar to the growth step pattern we saw in 2014, dividends were paid that were substantially less than the current dividends (+10 cents less than current per dividend price), and the per share price grew relentlessly from $1 to $6, a staggering increase. A comparative per share price growth would easily take us past the historic high for the per share price (not including, of course, the post IPO per share price silliness.)

    It all comes down to whether or not we are now finally breaking out of the dividend speculation cycle. We will see!

    Best,

    pajacobsen

  • Reply to

    Dividend estimate

    by p_a.jacobsen Feb 24, 2015 11:05 AM
    pajacobsen pajacobsen Feb 25, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    lddr and masley.

    Consider this. Since 2003, Mind CTI has returned more than $3 per share to its shareholders through consistent and continued dividend payments and without regards to fluctuations in the overall economy or in the telecoms markets (of which there has been many.)

    This sort of divided track-record is truly unprecedented, in particular if you consider that it is from a tech company, not some fund or REIT.

    Best,

    pajacobsen

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