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Seattle Genetics, Inc. Message Board

paladin_roams 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 12, 2016 9:18 AM Member since: Nov 10, 1999
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  • Reply to

    ACAD Buyout Price Range Now, Low to High ?

    by ps7835 Jun 11, 2016 1:26 PM
    paladin_roams paladin_roams Jun 12, 2016 9:18 AM Flag


  • Reply to

    Missed the train

    by crashdavisii Jun 2, 2016 1:52 PM
    paladin_roams paladin_roams Jun 2, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    BBs bought at $48 awhile back. Perhaps they know something.

  • Reply to

    Bakers not buying!

    by bullsrunsoon May 20, 2016 10:53 PM
    paladin_roams paladin_roams May 25, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    Guess we know why.

  • Reply to

    ACAD v. SGEN?

    by mslans May 18, 2016 4:54 PM
    paladin_roams paladin_roams May 21, 2016 7:55 PM Flag

    Yes, I'm in IDRA for about two years now. When I got in I felt it was a 4-8 year wait for something significant to happen. When Merlino became CEO I adjusted that to 4-6 years. Given that two years will have passed since my original timing, I'm now at 2-4 years with them before something significant could happen.

    Don't profess to know a lot. In fact for the last ten years or so have watched the BB moves very closely. My strategy has been to get in heavily on stocks that are in the $1 to $4 range AND they have at least 5% ownership (preferably 10%) with a string of quarterly buys and no sales. Then watch their filings. The general goal is to win big and lose small. Since these types of stocks are emerging biotechs, I'm not so concerned with the PPS at any point in time. My focus is on what's happening with the science in terms of good news, bad news. Sgen is a good example for many years when it's PPS might be stuck in a range, but the science news has all been good. So it still has all the potential it had from the start. Idra could be similar in that it's PPS has been horrible over the last couple of years, but it's foundation science has not had bad news, so still has reasonable potential, although certainly not the PPS growth potential that sgen and acad have. Also been in Cerus for quite a while. But I have backed off on other BB holdings, had 10 at my peak with them. Idra will likely be my last "BB Project Stock" simply because of my age and the fact that I don't need any more big wins.

    Best to you, and thanks for your kind words.

  • Reply to

    ACAD v. SGEN?

    by mslans May 18, 2016 4:54 PM
    paladin_roams paladin_roams May 20, 2016 12:30 PM Flag

    With sgen, always held a large core, about 2/3 of my maximum sgen holdings. The other one third I traded in and out as it rotated up and down within a given channel. Did a lot of that in the early years when you could quickly pick up a couple of dollars on a lower PPS on 10k or 20k shares in a week. Haven't done it in recent couple of years as its no longer worth it from my perspective. Now just holding for the Big Bang - it's all house money at this point.

    With acad, haven't traded it as it was not as predictable, again from my perspective. Sold some of my original core. The rest holding again for the Big Bang.

    Overall, stayed substantially in both because I 've felt they offered the best risk/reward at any given point in time. I'm not a fan of taking profits just because of a good run. To me, it's always what the best investment choice for today and tomorrow, not what happened yesterday.

  • Reply to

    ACAD v. SGEN?

    by mslans May 18, 2016 4:54 PM
    paladin_roams paladin_roams May 18, 2016 10:20 PM Flag

    Interesting question. I'm in both, Sgen from $3s and acad from $1s. If I was just starting out and had to choose one or the other, think I'd go with sgen. Both could be $100 + in three years, but sgen has the larger footprint while acad is more of a one hit wonder. Sgen has a proven management team, while acad has yet to fully come up to bat.

  • they may be....

  • paladin_roams paladin_roams Apr 25, 2016 12:09 PM Flag

    I was surprised to learn that somebody who's very well informed about the company actually sold half his position.

    The sale would seem to be quite a reasonable action going into a binary event. If the FDA approves one could argue that in the next year the PPS could be expected to move by some to $60+. If the FDA denies some might consider a PPS drop to $4 or $5.

    So, given those as possible parameters in a binary situation, if he holds all his stock (keep in mind the strike price of the options) the upside is unrealized gains of $4.2 Mil, the downside is unrealized gain of $.2 Mil.

    If he sells roughly half, his upside is gain & unrealized gain of 3.25 Mil, his downside is gain & unrealized gain of $1.18 Mil.

    Put another way, holding all compared to selling nearly half he forgoes 29% upside if FDA approves, but would see 83% erode if they deny.

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