We need clarity on the headwinds statement
"In Q1, the company expects to face significant sales and contribution headwinds including costs associated with the Emerald re-launch and lower walnut supply."
Exactly what does that translate to in terms of earnings.
Gawd. Are you serious? Firms are constantly making Upgrades/Downgrades before earnings AND are often wrong. Those "firms" have ulterior motives.
Listening to the CC, there will be dilution of 5-6 million shares due to the Oak Tree settlement. (I missed the exact # of shares, but it sounded like either 5 or 6M)
Thanks for clarification. I also shorted AH at $24. 21 may be a conservative cover. They still have not clarified the impact of "headwinds". Finally, they talk of things improving in 2015. 2015?
Verionic, listen to the CC. 2014 is not going to be good. (not horrible either) They are looking to the end of 2014 and then 2015 for decent improvement. The turn around keeps getting further and further out.
I think once short term technicals are breached, then we can easily see 19s tomorrow.
From the Street...."if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some near-term support levels at $23 to $22 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then DMND will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 50-day moving average at $21.52 a share. Any high-volume move below that level will then put $19 to its 200-day at $17.59 into range for shares of DMND."
So far I would have to say only Home Depot and Costco. I don't know anyone that is going to replace their current light bulbs with bulbs that cost $15-20 each!! People are going to wait until the price comes down. So what does that mean:
1) inventory sits in HD
2) HD will be ordering less in upcoming quarters
3) CREE will have to come down on price which will impact margins
I have LED lights in 4 fixtures at home. I love them! But with about 30-40 more bulbs to replace, I am not going to swap out anymore until the price drops by at least 70-75% from current levels.
A bump next qtr would have been nice, but I don't think it was really expected. Below is from Seeking Alpha and I think sizes potential accurately.
"HDD capital spending is about to pick up modestly in 2014, and grow more in 2015. This is based on the conservatism of the HDD companies, which saw a depressed TAM in recent quarters. They haven't invested in new equipment in a while, and they have multiple new products launching nowadays, like the 5mm HDD that is meant for tablets."
Seems like people were expecting things to happen more quickly, like in the next qtr. Next qtr looks ok, but not a blow out.
" During July, interim Chief Executive Ernie Samplas said he was encouraged by longer-term growth opportunities --noting the soft revenue from NetApp, formerly Xyratex's largest customer, will end after 2014 and be replaced by business from other original equipment manufacturers.
The data-storage company, has been under pressure from its largest shareholder, Baker Street Capital LLC, to consider strategic alternatives since early this year. In April, Xyratex agreed to name two of the hedge-fund manager's nominees, Vadim Perelman and Ken Traub, to its board. Also in April, Xyratex's former CEO, Steve Barber, stepped down in April, after serving at the helm for roughly 10 years.
Does anyone else think that the price drop has exceeded the impact of dilution? I get it that dilution is not usually a good thing and that a price drop usually accompanies that announcement. But Acorn is now 50% off its August trading average.
This looks like a great entry price. Since this is also the 3rd day of selling, I am in. (buy after 3 down days after bad announcement)
That is a good way to put it, "don't bet rent money, but it is worth a shot". The initial price makes it look like $4 may be the dilution price, but it did fall throughout the day past 3.50. But with a low float, low volume stock, all price moves are slightly exaggerated, which is why $4 is a good bet.
Today's shellacking has dropped the forward PE to under 15. I think shorts were screaming that LRN was over priced at $30-35 share. They were right. # of shorts was 4.8M. That is the entire trading volume for today. Even though it looks over done, shorts are still in control here.
I had to bail. Sold at 3.33 for a nice profit. But I was expected a much better recovery. When it struggled to stay above 3.30, I had a bad feeling and just took my small profit. Not sure why this has not recovered more. It wouldn't surprise me to see it on the volume gainer list next week. But I won't take that chance.
Without a doubt there was heavy selling pressure once ARIA broke 5.5. Bid/Ask spread was heavy on the ASK side from 5.4 down to 5.34. That is when it started to stabilize and turn in favor of BIDs. Selling pressure is still apparent, but it looks like many buyers have their bids in too.
AND if it doesn't close at the low of the day...?