third, indeed, your calculation is based on conservative assumptions. More aggressive price for the combo and substantially higher PE may result in even higher share price.
you are right, the three drug combo will not be Kalydeco + 809 + 661, but a combo of Kal + 809 + X or Kal + 661 + X. Most likely it will be the 661 containing cocktail. X - referred to as second generation corrector -had been promised to be in the clinic by late 2014, but that has been postponed to sometime in 2015. I guess VRTX wants to see more results on 661 before making the final selection of X.
"What makes you say that they're superior? What stage trials?"
you can find the info on GLPG website, look for cf presentation
just wonder why CFF does not mention corrector and potentiators in development by Galapagos, these compounds in pre-clinical models are superior to VRTX compounds. By the way, Vicky Sato, former head of research at VRTX, recently resigned from GLPG board of directors, due to "conflict of interests".
PCYC Imbruvica's projected peak sales are $6B., half of that goes to J&J, assuming that kaleydaco and 809 combo also have peak sales of about $6B this would value VRTX at about $40B, or about $170 per share.
we need a second nipple to really turn on a stiff erectile chart pattern that brings us close to a new climax
LOL, these chart fetishists are funny
"great stock 6to buy and put away"
and to suffer from confusing comments by management on conference calls ;-)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
VRTX used 661 phase IIb data to get FDA approval for the phase III trials but they refused to discuss these data. Wallstreet does not like companies that hide information, hence the substantial decline in share price
exactly: "Smart management is very careful not to imply that they know any results until the data is un-blinded, analyzed, and ready for official reporting"
so VRTX management is aware of interim data, discussed these with FDA and starts phase III without waiting for final results of phase IIb study
BUT management asserts "there is really just no way to comment on those results"
does this make sense? What is it that they do not want us to know?
management again failed to communicate precise info on the 661 trial. Ian Smith screwed it by saying:" I think in terms of the interim results, they really aren’t just bad and there is really just no way to comment on those results". If he knows that results are not bad how can he justify to claim that there is no way to comment on the results?
Mark Schoenebaum nailed it by saying: "In the 4Q and at JPM, buy side expectations rose for both the upcoming phase 2b #$%$ data on 661/Kal and the potential for the combo in a heterozygous combination. VRTX's "tone" last night seemed more "down the middle" than "excited" and I think that may have spooked a few folks."
$ 155 - LOL, that's my target, how did Robin know, he never talked to me :-)
drug companies know what these are doing, they enjoy the cheap labor forces in India, knowledge of formulation is not enough to produce and sell a drug, generic drug makers have to develop their own formulation and show equivalence in bioavailability to get approval.
verity, I am confused by your statement:
"Also it might have just dawned on folks that 6-11 isn't part of FDA filing. That's been on hold more than a year!!! Check out last update at clinicaltrials gov web. Im praying that wont be far behind approval. And that is about half ddf508 population."
Leiden mentioned that 6-11 are about 500 patients, what do you mean by "that is about half ddf508 population"?
Galapagos is moving ahead:
Galapagos NV (GLPG.NX) announced today that it nominated a first pre-clinical candidate corrector GLPG2222 for clinical development in its cystic fibrosis (CF) program. This corrector, in combination with GLPG1837, forms the core of Galapagos' future combination therapy for the most common mutation in cystic fibrosis. The Galapagos combination has shown higher efficacy in pre-clinical studies than other therapies currently under clinical development.
to all Vertex longs. I am convinced that 2015 will see new highs for VRTX sp,
based on the assumption of approval for combo and positive data on 661 I dare to predict a sp well above $150 at the end of the year.
What's your guess?
Adam Feuerstein recently posted this sales estimates:
"Based on this math, admittedly imprecise, in order to spend $3.3 billion for royalties today, Royalty Pharma is betting Vertex can generate $6 billion annually in cystic fibrosis drug sales at peak."