Glad, as you know, I am not a fan of Leiden, but I guess the depressed sp is not his fault. Motley fool's comment nailed it:
"Even if you want to argue that efficacy should be closer to what was seen in the short Orkambi phase 2 trial (809-102), it's still not as impressive as what Kalydeco can do in the patient populations the drug can treat.
The increased number of patients eligible to take Orkambi and the lower efficacy are likely the reason tat Vertex priced Orkambi at $259,000 per year, a sizable discount to Kalydeco.
How big the discounts ultimately end up being will eventually determine the peak sales for Orkambi. Until we get a few quarters into the launch, the gross-to-net discount may hang over Vertex like a black swan."
We need to see the first numbers of Orkambi sales before sp will recover. Increased forecast in the next quarterly cc might help.
this has been my strongest concern for quite some time (years!):
wonder when they will bring more compounds to the clinic. The cancer candidates seem to be locked up in phase I and do not really fit Leiden's strategy to focus on orphan drugs.
Q, there is no doubt that Kalydeco and Orkambi are major achievements in treatment of CF that are a blessing for many patients. But that doesn't relief management from shaping the future of the company and to create a sustainable stream of revenue. In my opinion, VRTX has not offered much information others than referring to announcements to be made in the coming years. Second generation correctors were supposed to enter clinic in 2014. Where are they? Galapagos has a better version of Kalydeco in the clinic. Where is VRTX back-up for Kalydeco? Where are clinical candidates outside CF? Why go after cancer candidates that improve chemotherapy when the company's focus is on orphan drugs?
I am a long time investor in VRTX, cost average of my shares is below $20, so I do not complain about my capital gain, but I dare to criticize the management of the company I am invested in when I feel somethings missing.
J. Leiden: " The residual function arm always had in it both a placebo and ivacaftor monotherapy compared with 661 plus ivacaftor."
I was not aware of iva mono versus iva+661, to me it seems that FDA asked for that arm, given their doubt on Orkambi
without info on the non-cf pipeline it is not possible to give a substantiated guess on a buy-out offer. My wild guess is somewhere between $170 and $200 - if an offer will be made, which I doubt.
don't blame the politicians, nobody can justify what Turing did, raise the price of an old drug from $13.5 to $750!
VRTX sp performance during the last month compared to other big biotech's indicates indeed that "the market" is expecting major negative information, Clintons initiative certainly can not explain the steep decline in sp, VRTX is not affected by reduction on patent extensions for biologics, let's see what next cc will bring