$ 155 - LOL, that's my target, how did Robin know, he never talked to me :-)
management again failed to communicate precise info on the 661 trial. Ian Smith screwed it by saying:" I think in terms of the interim results, they really aren’t just bad and there is really just no way to comment on those results". If he knows that results are not bad how can he justify to claim that there is no way to comment on the results?
Mark Schoenebaum nailed it by saying: "In the 4Q and at JPM, buy side expectations rose for both the upcoming phase 2b #$%$ data on 661/Kal and the potential for the combo in a heterozygous combination. VRTX's "tone" last night seemed more "down the middle" than "excited" and I think that may have spooked a few folks."
exactly: "Smart management is very careful not to imply that they know any results until the data is un-blinded, analyzed, and ready for official reporting"
so VRTX management is aware of interim data, discussed these with FDA and starts phase III without waiting for final results of phase IIb study
BUT management asserts "there is really just no way to comment on those results"
does this make sense? What is it that they do not want us to know?
VRTX used 661 phase IIb data to get FDA approval for the phase III trials but they refused to discuss these data. Wallstreet does not like companies that hide information, hence the substantial decline in share price
"great stock 6to buy and put away"
and to suffer from confusing comments by management on conference calls ;-)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
we need a second nipple to really turn on a stiff erectile chart pattern that brings us close to a new climax
LOL, these chart fetishists are funny
PCYC Imbruvica's projected peak sales are $6B., half of that goes to J&J, assuming that kaleydaco and 809 combo also have peak sales of about $6B this would value VRTX at about $40B, or about $170 per share.
just wonder why CFF does not mention corrector and potentiators in development by Galapagos, these compounds in pre-clinical models are superior to VRTX compounds. By the way, Vicky Sato, former head of research at VRTX, recently resigned from GLPG board of directors, due to "conflict of interests".
"What makes you say that they're superior? What stage trials?"
you can find the info on GLPG website, look for cf presentation
you are right, the three drug combo will not be Kalydeco + 809 + 661, but a combo of Kal + 809 + X or Kal + 661 + X. Most likely it will be the 661 containing cocktail. X - referred to as second generation corrector -had been promised to be in the clinic by late 2014, but that has been postponed to sometime in 2015. I guess VRTX wants to see more results on 661 before making the final selection of X.
third, indeed, your calculation is based on conservative assumptions. More aggressive price for the combo and substantially higher PE may result in even higher share price.
the big unknown is how much will VRTX charge for the combo?
makes a huge difference in sales and hence in share price
"RBC Analyst remains confident of FDA approval before PDUFA date of July 5" - so am I :-)
about a year ago Ian Smith indicated some interesting numbers:
2 k patients on Kalydeco - $400 mio per year
7k patients from label expansion - 1.5 bil per year
28 k patients from Kalydeco + 809 - 6 bil per year
17 k patients from heterocygotes patients - 4 bil per year
so if all adds up VRTX has the chance to generate about $12 bil per year from CF.
now it's up to you to guess an appropriate market cap ;-)
would be nice to get comments on non-CF pipeline drug candidates but I guess VRTX will not release corresponding news. Oncology candidates 803 and 970 are just recruiting patients for phase I studies (VX-803 trial already started back in 2012!), there are no trials in other indications yet.
that does not mean that VRTX will receive that much:
"According to some number-crunching from a pair of Prime employees, the Vertex med--if priced roughly on par with solo Kalydeco--will cost the PBM $367,000 per year with medical and pharmacy costs included"
most likely the VRTX combo price tag will be about 300k