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InterOil Corporation Message Board

papaloapan 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 12, 2014 5:21 PM Member since: Dec 26, 1998
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  • papaloapan by papaloapan Aug 12, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    Yahoo shows 6,000 shares volume and a price of 2.24, down o.06.

    Toronto shows 360,000 shares, and down 1 penny to US dollar equivalent of 3.31.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by airlease2000 Jul 30, 2014 7:15 PM
    papaloapan papaloapan Aug 3, 2014 6:04 PM Flag

    Much depends on how they employ their new construction units as these deliver. If the rates remain strong enough this will add to cash flow, and this downdraft in rates in generally regarded as a limit term phenom as oil companies figure out where they are going. IF Seadrill is right, demand will exceed both supply and the ability to build new units within two years or so, and when that happens, rates will rise.

    At some point I would expect the rate of growth to slow a bit, and if Seadrills slows their expansion, debt will start to run off quickly and cash flow will increase dramatically. The real play here in my mind is long term as these rigs earn enough to pay off their costs in 5-6 years, while they have a useful life of 20 years + - assuming you have the debt flexibility not to put yourself in a bind in the meantime.

    I am betting on supply / demand in the market, the per unit ability of one rig to service it's cost, and what I consider to be the best management in the industry.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    CEO's repsonse to PP report

    by scottystock75 Jul 31, 2014 10:12 PM
    papaloapan papaloapan Aug 3, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Seems to me the last thing any company needs to do is get into a public discussion on arcane and complicated accounting rules with a public that is unlikely to understand anything more than gist of the rules - that is a never ending spiral of dialogue that could never complete. The right thing to do is simply deny the allegation, as they have, and then work with professional analysts, who understand the rules, and who most certainly want to make sure PP is not right. They have done that, and are offering to continuing doing that.

    SNP just upgraded CBI from 3 stars to 5 stars on July 29, with a 12 month target of 99. Opinions are just opinions, and some more informed than others, but does anyone really thing that SNP would do this without satisfying themselves that PP is wrong.

    And does anyone really think that Buffet is selling when you have SNP on one side having no problem with the numbers and PP (who?) on the other side saying abandon ship.

    Who knows for sure - we are all speculating with out own money - but that's my opinion

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • papaloapan by papaloapan Jul 31, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Aside from the headline numbers on profit and sales, there is much more progress.

    Sales volume was up to 132mm gallons. They have plant capacity of 200mm gallons, so there is room for continued growth in sales units.

    The balance sheet is cleaner - no parent company debt, and consolidated plant debt was reduced to a total of $17mm.

    Cash on the balance sheet is $48mm - (July not June).

    This is driven by margins and volumes. Plenty of room for volume to grow, but margins are determined by commodity pricing beyond their control, and this is the risk.

    Hard to believe this has a 52 week low in the 2's, but this is low p/e, low p/sales, liquid balance sheet. Not suggesting there is any interest, but it the type of characteristics that pop on screens for acquisition candidates.

  • Reply to


    by edsilverstreak Jul 31, 2014 8:19 AM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jul 31, 2014 8:23 AM Flag

    It's a robo-write - meaningless. The Street does the same thing

  • papaloapan by papaloapan Jul 30, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    Reported as .06 miss - with only one analyst that follows it - but the run rate is still $3 annual for a 6x p/e

  • Reply to

    3rd Qtr earnings estimates

    by e7navy1999 Jul 30, 2014 4:14 PM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jul 30, 2014 10:11 PM Flag

    Which is right where it was before anybody ever hear of Prescient Point.

  • Reply to

    Thought on Monitise

    by ramimd Jul 30, 2014 5:15 PM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jul 30, 2014 10:08 PM Flag

    This stock popped considerably when Cooperman promoted it on CNBC and made more US investors aware - most UK investors felt the pop was excessive, but it resulted from new buyers. I think at the moment you have a lot of short term traders who took advantage of that pop deciding to sell, because they are not here for the long term, and some because of general concerns about the market. I have a comfortable position for me - some higher some lower - but I am here because I am looking for the long term benefit I see in this name, supported by some big name investors and some very prominent partners. Shorts can drive the prices down, but not every down draft is caused by short sellers - most are simply more sellers than buyers.

  • Reply to


    by jhperk2003 Jul 25, 2014 1:58 PM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jul 25, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    Prescience works for hedge funds, so they are in the business of both trying to uncover problems and trying to drive the price of targets down. People who produce "research" under contract from hedge funds, and then release it for free on the internet, have no credibility. They do it because nervous holders make it work. And in this case, we have huge volume about 3x normal, and about 5%of total shares o/s. Bad press, combined with falling prices, has an effect and then feeds on itself.

    One buy today from UBS. CS is neutral on them, but have a 90 price target. Their projections are positive and made passing mention that the company expects no writedown of goodwill - which I presume is what Prescient is hanging their hats on.

    I think Warren would have understood those issues when he bought, and I hope he is still holding, but unfortunately, we won't be able to confirm that until his filing dates pass.

  • Reply to

    When the dust settled

    by suuumguy Jul 8, 2014 8:36 AM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jul 8, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Potential issuance of 19/20mm shares - about 30% premium to today's market is about $52, and then 1b/52. This is about a 4% increase in issued shares (19/469). 5 years from now - of course premised on our share being worth 30% more.

    Knee jerk reaction to new shares, but really - 4% dilution in 5 years. These guys know what they are doing - let them do it ! This is not going to have any adverse affect on the dividend.

  • Reply to


    by pgsylves Jul 1, 2014 4:07 PM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jul 1, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    An honest man !

  • Reply to

    Why MONIF is cheap

    by ramimd Jul 1, 2014 3:25 AM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jul 1, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    7 times sale is cheap ? This is difficult to value, and is contingent on seizing market share of an expanding market - we are here because we think they just may be able to do that. I think it is cheap relative to its potential, but not necessarily based on its current value.

    People like Cooperman, Bill Miller, Kass & VISA are better equipped to make those judgements than individual investors. They make mistakes, and could well be wrong, but I like the clustering of these names in a tiny European company.

    It ran up when the US individual investors heard about on CNBC etc, and may have gotten ahead of itself and is correcting. The payday, however, is a large gain, but several years from now, so don't worry about short term ticks. In a 3 - 5 year time frame, it won't make much difference if you paid 0.90 or 1.10 today.

  • Reply to

    GREAT Article - new....

    by forml123 Jun 17, 2014 2:21 PM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jun 18, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    An interesting price target which the company has set themselves - much better than bulletin board dreamers.

    "The plan is to increase Monitise’s valuation 10x to $20 billion by 2020."

  • papaloapan by papaloapan Jun 18, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    How come Yahoo can't seem to price this security - its stuck on 2.28 for a week now, and the price is more like 2.46

  • Reply to

    MAUXF jumping

    by gooseg52 Jun 17, 2014 12:30 PM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jun 17, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    check again !

  • papaloapan papaloapan Jun 7, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    They are not doubling year over year but they have the best long term growth profile of any of the large MLP's, and is widely recommended by most analysts. Distributions will grow more than most on a percentage basis - partly growth and partly the low base. The stock is approaching the price target of my brokers, who consider it a strong buy, but I think we'll see that target increase.

  • Reply to

    Blind Luck

    by cuerpoviejo May 7, 2014 11:37 PM
    papaloapan papaloapan Jun 2, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Plus almost $18,000 in annual dividends going forward - or about 15% on your cost - who needs to sell. Not bad at all. Shows the value of buying quality and then ignoring the hubris. Remains one of the most widely recommended (ie "best positioned) MLP's going forward.

61.21+0.34(+0.56%)Aug 20 4:04 PMEDT

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