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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

paras_hemrajani 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2014 10:04 AM Member since: Dec 19, 2012
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  • Reply to

    scripts

    by bindroy Aug 15, 2014 9:29 AM
    paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Aug 15, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    where are you getting 6 weeks from? The average length of a prescription is slightly above 28 days. You can verify this with IR. If it is was 6 weeks, they would be touting that on the 2nd quarter results.

  • Reply to

    scripts

    by bindroy Aug 15, 2014 9:29 AM
    paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Aug 15, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    Stuck for 8 weeks in the 300s, thought for sure we would have hit 400 today. Last 8 week script counts makes we wonder if Otrexup growth has plateaued and this is without competition. Looks like they are adding only 100-200 patients a month. Really frustrated with this management.

    20-Jun 321
    27-Jun 339
    4-Jul 303
    11-Jul 358
    18-Jul 322
    25-Jul 390
    1-Aug 381
    8-Aug 369

  • paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Aug 12, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    You are right, my numbers are very conservative. Would love to see $50 million in Otrexup sales. But i am probably more concerned about the negatives which is competition from Medac on pricing and limited script growth, similar to current levels.

  • paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Aug 12, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Sorry i meant Rayos from Horizon.

  • paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Aug 12, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    Asked Jack about this, he said that Otrexup script counts compared favorably against recent launches of Xeljanz from Pfizer and Rayos from Pfizer. The point was it takes time to launch an RA product. My view is to expect the sales to triple between this year and next, similar to Xeljanz. I am expecting Otrexup to do $25-30 million next year. Not an experts view coming from me, just an opinion.

  • Reply to

    Around 5,000 total YTD according to Symphony

    by nammuang Aug 7, 2014 9:30 AM
    paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Aug 7, 2014 7:51 PM Flag

    The press release stated approximately 5,000 scripts. Let's just say it was 100 less and if i were to believe keystone's number of 322 for WE 7/18, then last week would been around 500 scripts. Really need to have the numbers tomorrow. Hopefully keystone delivers.

    As always something does not go right with Antares and we had no Tev tropin sales in 2Q. Other than that and increased litigation expenses, Antares did well. Our R&D expenses will increase in the next 2 quarters due to clinical trials for QST. The 10Q stated we have incurred $4 million in costs related to QST in the 1st half of 2014 out of $13 million planned for 2014. I think this cost will be capitalized, nevertheless it will hit our cash flows in the next 2 quarters. Otrexup needs to ramp up right now in this quarter and i believe it will!!!

  • Reply to

    Bogus script numbers

    by ginnypv15 Jul 26, 2014 6:38 AM
    paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Jul 26, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    The numbers came from the same source who has been providing the updates for the past weeks and he posts on the AMRN board. He did not post this weeks numbers, but was kind enough to respond to my e-mail request. I do believe his numbers and think rph's theory of weak script counts during the middle of the month and strong script counts towards the start/end of the month can explain the poor number. Nevertheless, if true, it was a poor number and that's maybe why the stock price is languishing. No reason to intentionally provide fake numbers as i am long on the stock!

  • paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Jul 25, 2014 6:19 PM Flag

    Sorry 322 is the right number, off by 1.

  • paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Jul 25, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    Total Count of 321 for WE 7/18 is what i got. Don't have the breakdown. Disappointing number.

  • Reply to

    Whogo how are thing in your little world?

    by nammuang Jul 16, 2014 8:10 PM
    paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Jul 16, 2014 9:58 PM Flag

    I am a foolish long at this point....but i have to agree with whogo. My projection shows our cash balance will likely be around $40 million by the end of the year.
    2nd quarter: $63 - $10 million = $53 million
    3rd quarter: $53 - $8 million = $45 million
    4th quarter: $45 - $5 million = $40 million

    Hopefully it does not go below $30 million before we are cash flow positive next year. It would be terrible to raise money at a price lower than the raise in Oct 2012. Management is not giving us long investors anything to be confident about. Hopefully this changes soon.

  • Reply to

    US MTX Market

    by nammuang Jul 11, 2014 10:37 PM
    paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Jul 11, 2014 10:55 PM Flag

    Your calculations are off by a factor of 4. 1% market share is 4,200 patients which translates to 1050 scripts/wk or approximate net sales of $20 million / year. The fact is it is going to be a struggle to get to $100 million per year in net sales from Otrexup, it might take 5+ years to get there with competition, which means we have to slow down the development of products in the pipeline or raise more money. I just wish we sell out to TEVA for anything above $4 in the next 12 months. I am haunted by Paul's statement's related to strong IP and the business model. The mean and lean company he described Antares as applies to us shareholders not too competition. The first red flag for me was the departure of Kaushik Dave in September 2013. When senior leadership starts to leave, they make that type of a decision because they see the writing on the wall.

  • Reply to

    Hey, Whogoisfulllofit how about my HALO.

    by whogo70 Jun 4, 2014 8:16 PM
    paras_hemrajani paras_hemrajani Jun 4, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    Good call!

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