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passports777 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 3:50 PM Member since: Mar 4, 2000
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  • Reply to

    all this whining is pathetic

    by tnorman61 Dec 24, 2014 1:04 PM
    passports777 passports777 Dec 24, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    You are fully inaccurate, T Norman, when you regard ARNA as "speculating on an extremely risky stock." Once Belviq was approved in 2012, it ceased being a speculative stock. It is a proven, novel drug for safe weight loss. Whether it sells like gangbusters is a function of M.D.s prescribing versus other approaches and insurers covering Belviq. The market (obese people) is there and is not some speculative idea. "Speculating on an extremely risky stock" means hoping for a potential cure for, say, pancreatic cancer in Phase 1 trials. Investing in an approved obesity pill is not speculative in the sense you are suggesting.

  • passports777 passports777 Dec 24, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    Matese, you make some good points, particularly about the obese population's opinion of itself. Not only is there not a stigma but there is the problem that obesity is not life-threatening in an immediate way. We stop for railroad signals because we know the threat of death is immediate if we proceed. We take our insulin because the threat of death is imminent is we do not. But people continue to smoke and continue to waddle around fat and happy, stuffing Big Macs down the gullet, because there is no immediate threat of death. Obesity, of course, causes all kinds of health problems and co-morbidities, but until someone has the nerve to say at a funeral, "Gee, he was a good fellow, but what a fat slug!" there will not be a genuine urgency to address obesity or a connection made between weight and longevity. The use of Belviq in smoking cessation faces similar difficulties because most smokers are incredibly stubborn. My hope is that Belviq outperforms all competing drugs for safe weight loss (it has already beaten what VVUS has to offer) so that it becomes the last man standing.

  • Reply to

    Think really hard-

    by peter_north444 Dec 23, 2014 3:00 PM
    passports777 passports777 Dec 23, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    Well, Peter North, as an ARNA shareholder, you are more like Peter South. It's fine to be optimistic, but this is the worst long I've ever held. And we've all seen NOVEL drugs wind up in the toilet -- like Dendreon's Provenge, the first-ever cancer immunotherapy, doing $300 million in annual sales but the company going bankrupt four years after FDA approval. ARNA has not been able to distinguish Belviq from the competition, its deal with Esai does not allow substantial profits, insurers are not rushing to cover Belviq despite obesity being declared a disease, its pipeline is an apparent pipedream, and the pps is getting beaten down mercilessly. It has all the markings of a NOVEL drug doing a bellyflop -- a Dendreon. Wish there was a legitimate indication that things are otherwise.

  • Reply to

    An insane stock to own

    by qmingin Dec 15, 2014 2:14 PM
    passports777 passports777 Dec 15, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    I am fresh out of ideas as to how Arena will EVER turn around. All of my reasons for optimism in the last year are apparently kaput. Owning this POS is hopeless, and I own a ton of this #$%$.

  • Reply to

    .89 will not hold.

    by the_butt_boy_2000 Nov 4, 2014 7:48 AM
    passports777 passports777 Nov 14, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    So D J, how's that $20 projection for DNDN looking today, only 10 days after you enlightened us?
    Pathetic pumper.

  • passports777 passports777 Nov 10, 2014 5:48 PM Flag

    Well, I can certainly see where it was possible to have made a million on this puppy. My point was that greed got in the way with bominireal as much or moreso than a failed understanding of the market forces. My ignorance of MDVN (by not participating) is mine to regret over these past few years.

  • passports777 passports777 Nov 10, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    Stoploss, you and Peso weren't the only ones who tried to inform idiots like havenger and bominireal (and you could add imallin and johnnyorca to the DNDN Idiot Hall of Shame). Jupiter and I consistently waved warnings when it became clear that the PATIENT POOL was insifficient to make Provenge a profitable therapy. Now here's a question for you: Who earned the most on the whole Dendreon saga? Unless your short profits exceeded my half-a-million long profits, I will have the fondest memories of Dendreon (although I was once up 600 and backtracked 100 with the August 2011 withdrawn guidance). What is truly stunning, at least with bominireal, is the boundless GREED with which he (and a few others) hung on to shares that topped $50. One can be wrong about Provenge's future, but to sit on shares aafter the run to $50-plus is the kind of greed that cannot be negated by years of business and market study. And deep down, THEY KNOW IT.

  • passports777 passports777 Oct 31, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Go right ahead with your solid Red nonsense. You have lost the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 presidential elections, and you will have lost 7 of 8 by the time Hillary wins twice. So, let's see, 1992 to 2020 (almost 30 years) and you lose 7 of 8 popular votes. Will it ever occur to you that your solid red ideas are out of step with the nation? Seems the man in office had the balls to kill Bin Laden in a raid in a foreign country -- or have you forgotten this little bit of business that Bush found so uninteresting?

  • passports777 passports777 Oct 13, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    While I share your optimism for Afrezza market acceptance, I have to dispute your comparison to DNDN. Dendreon dropped below $3 at the market bottom in early 2009 and BEFORE any Phase 3 results on Provenge, BEFORE any AdCom vote, and, of course, BEFORE the FDA approval of the first cancer vaccine. The share price rose to the 20s (BEFORE the AdCom, incidentally) after the CEO said the trial results were "unambiguous", and itt rose to the 40s with the solid AdCom vote, then to 57 with FDA approval.

    Now, let's look at MNKD. Sitting at $4 before the AdCom vote, then a positive outcome and ultimately an FDA approval to peak at -- WHAT? -- $11. Do you think there were no shorts when MNKD sat at $4? Why wouldn't shorts have covered in the run to $11? Well, perhaps they did. What happened is that the market didn't like the Sanofi deal (or didn't understand it), and until sales and milestone payments can reverse this sentiment, MNKD will atrophy, back into the 4s as we find ourselves today. Afrezza is not a cancer vaccine, just a new approach to common treatment with insulin -- albeit a revolutionary one in which we are all invested. But a cancer vaccine? That had sizzle, and hence the $50-plus peak. But 15 months later, when sales of Provenge weren't going to break into profitability, the pps fell from the high 30s. Organized crime? C'mon.

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