Kitty here is a funny sad story. I made a lot of money on CEMP riding it from low teens to high 30's but then I bought 30k shares avg of 19.5 on data release day thinking it would pop back that day, instead I panic sold two bucks cheaper that same day. That hurts. But I have since doubled up here with many shares in low teens. Still hold all my RLYP.
I do, but technicals is not my game. My thought was it was an effort to crush stock on a perfect day with IBB weakness, after big run-up, and the MS notes. But when they were met with resistance (maybe due to technical) they panic and cover some. It makes very little sense to feel ultra confident with a RLYP short now. I hope IBB is strong tomorrow, it could fly.
Haven't had much luck with BXLT, although I like it going forward. looks like Good risk reward here on its own or Buyout. It seems to act contrary to the IBB sometimes. I am often confused but hold 5k shares at avg. 35.5. I give it more patience than a lot of my stocks.
I have heard good things about Champlain. Here in Maine my family is expanding so I am holding off as we just don't for see having time in near future for fully enjoying lake. Maybe in a year or two. I also like Rangeley area for hunting/fishing/skiing. \
I like the way it acted today. Looks like some real nervous shorts to me. I assumed they would be able to throw a couple big blows at it and really drop it. I think they showed their hand a little and this could get really positive. There is much more risk shorting now than waiting until later. I you are a short wouldn't you want to be sure ZSPH has no issues on approval? Whats the rush in shorting RLYP now? That money has been made from 40's to 11. Now release and wait for next opportunity if it presents. I don;t think it will but a smart investor should at least wait (it is very risky-stupid to short RLYP now).
Kinda strange how this traded in a 20 cent range for 3/4 the day. After being halted yesterday on buyout rumor. Being sold at exact highs on momentum and then propped up again at same level.
BXLT would probably be at this price today without imminent buyout possibility. I wonder if Shire might sweeten this deal with a very large CVR as well. Cash, stock and CVR based on sales. I think Baxalta will take a deal this time. Someone has done a nice job keeping this down today. Could pop it at anytime.
Shire said they would review books and if all was clean they may increase their offer which is what is happening now. How much is the ?
You know the drug pricing political issue is on all these guys minds now. What does the landscape look like 3 years out? Best to let shire worry about it.
They assume baxalta will turn down any offer But clearly this company is valuable and should trade higher. I speculate that Shire will give them something to seriously consider like 60 bucks a share.
AZN thought enough to put a CVR on ZSPH target of 1.1bil in sales by 2019. What if RLYP has 1 billion in sales ? How much is it worth then? HMM a lot!
The mere fact that AZN would assume 1.1 billion in sales within 3 years was even possible should shed light on RLYP potential. Man this is cheap.
AstraZeneca submitted a revised non-binding proposal to acquire the Company for $83.00 in cash per Share and a contingent value right (“CVR”) for an additional $12.00 per Share in cash in the event that net sales of ZS-9 exceed $1.1 billion in any calendar year ending on or prior to December 31, 2019.
They must have suspected RLYP may get sales and they wouldn't have hit targets for CVR.
That is a legitimate possibility of getting a 200 percent return on a bet with 10-20% downside risk. I like that
I am sure there is ego involved now. RLYP probably believes it is superior (it may be). So someone has to be willing to top the ZSPH offer of 2.7 bil. Would someone do this now? Maybe or maybe we will have to see sales. Either way at 19 bucks/share this is a very good bet. Any guess on who would buy this?
Weird is not so good for me. Made some, lost some. Lost a little more. Somehow I feel there is some really intelligent program out there and it can't be beat. So I don't play much. This is pretty much all about buyouts and there is a limit to how many there can be. No one really is accumulating biotech from a long perspective right now. So one can cast a big net of shorts and win on most. If there is a buyout oh well then it decreases the odds of the others so keep shorting. The pops look more like covering. The long trend isn't good.