I looked at the volume to see where the possible start was to this short. Volume was low most of this June period. It had spiked on May 31 for no reason. Settled back down but was higher on several days. I figure that the average share price sold would have been around $19.75 based upon these higher volume days, 25 cents below the buyout price. At no time during this period, did the price rise above $19.86. If the buyout would have continued, there was no reason that I can think of to short at $19.75. I figure that they did short on May 31 and the time period afterwards while others were covering. Whoever that was could have shorted over 1.5 million shares or more above those who covered. If the buyout would have succeeded at $20, they could have lost has much as $400,000 to cover all costs, and even greater if there was a higher offer in the remaining go shop period. The buyout had to fail for them to gain on this short. Otherwise they would incur a loss since the price would certainly rise as the time to the buyout shortened.
The short's whistleblower to the U.S. Attorney General had to have told the short that the letter was being written and would soon be on its way (prior to May 31?). Their whistleblower has ties to the SEC, IRS, FBI, Department of Justice, and it looks like now to be at least one U.S. Attorney General's office.
Otherwise, does anyone here have an idea why anyone would short a buyout below the buyout price? I could see a short doing it above the buyout price but never below the buyout price unless they were very sure that the buyout would fail. If they used information obtained from the U.S. Attorney's office that would be illegal insider information. If they whistleblowed to manipulate a stocks price, again this would be illegal stock manipulation if falsely accused, it is intent to do harm and others have gone to jail for the same.
Its anyones guess what happened. It could be news about the SEC probe of Apple's taxes which resulted in little change in reporting. It could be news that the lawsuit in Georgia could be dismissed soon. It could be probes by government authorities into the activity of shorts. It could be that the cost for shorting Ebix has increased. It could be that shorts found better opportunity elsewhere. It could be a new buyer. Any number of things or combination.
What I do find interesting is the lack of coverage of Gotham City Research's last hit piece, "New Problems Emerge In Singapore, Sweden And India". There was Seeking Alpha's publication of the article and no other major coverage. No Greg Farrell and Bloomberg back-up article, just a half dozen minor blog sites picking it up. What caused Greg Farrell's sudden lack of interest?
Ruling on the second Ebix filing requesting that the class action case be dismissed based on the recent Meyer decision coming? I've been expecting it for some time now. The case has nothing to keep it going; it should have been dismissed on the first request. Some on the internet say that this appointed judge doesn't know law. Ebix argument was done 8/21/2013; the ruling should be coming soon.
People either don't think that your jokes are funny or don't get them. Or longs don't like being called sheep. Try again with a better punch line. I'll give you a thumbs up for effort.
I had a feeling that the money laundry story could have been Greg Farrell's last Ebix hit piece. Either Bloomberg pulled the plug or Greg got cold feet to write more. At least I hope so. Bloomberg gives these hit pieces more credibility than Mr Yu can give.
It's all about who blinks first. I don't blink when I feel that I am right. The longer the wait, the less likely anything important was found. The SEC has had information by subpeona for nearly 10 months. More than enough time to take action.
It's about intent. It was not Mr Yu's intent to publish opinion but to do harm to the company and Mr Raina. In his blog he wrote about writing anonymous articles to create problems for any company that he or anyone for that matter intended to short. These problems included disrupting normal operations and hurting business prospects and making every effort to include government agencies. This article in his blog is dated well before he even created Gotham City. Publishing opinion isn't illegal, but intent to do harm for profit is illegal. Especially the intentional use of false accusations. When the SEC hasn't proceeded with actions against Ebix after 2 subpeanaes and almost 10 months with their collected records shows to me that they have found nothing to very little. The short's organizations whisteblowers were beating on the SEC doors with their accusations until they got those subpeanaes. Then they turned to the FBI and beat on their door. It's sufficient evidence for the SEC to investigate this organized short and procecute for doing intentional harm for profit. I also believe that the shares have been too hard to borrow to get to this point without somehow manipulating the rules for naked shorting. That would be illegal too.
I guess that I should have warned people that I thought that it was coming soon. Marc Cohodes and Sam Antar have been making fun of Mr Raina again, a sign to me that they had something up their sleeve once more. And I saw this that Gotham posted at 8:12am September 17:
Gotham City Research@GothamResearch17 Sep
We will be releasing an exposé on a company whose financial statements are materially incorrect, and whose shares we believe are worthless.
I surmised that another attack was probable on Ebix and not some other company. I got sidetracked and didn't investigate further. Sorry that I didn't post so that it would not have been a surprise, but at least no long term damage from the attack so far. And oh yes, these guys do read this message board and others. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them is posting here too.
I really liked this tweet, he's gained a lot of respect:
Gotham City Research@GothamResearch17 Sep
The threatening e-mails , and attempts to hack into the account are all cute. Thanks!
You are right to call it a logical guess. It's my intuitive conclusion based upon many small bits of information. When I say many small bits of information, I mean lots of small inconsequential things combined together over many months to form a conclusion. I stated many in previous posts over those months, but some I have not. I feel that I have a basic understanding of the character and behavior of the cast and crew of this "who done it?" play. I feel that we are well into act 3 now for the unexpected ending. The audience has been given the opportunity to engage in the process of deduction throughout this crime. As a viewer I have been provided with many clues as the cast have all dropped bread crumb trails. I don't think that I'm going to be surprised at the play's climax, but then again, life is not totally predictable when so many are involved. Some may have thrown a Red Herring in my path. Unlike fiction, reality says that bad guys don't always get caught. We won't know for sure until the play is over.
And this is a possible reason for not instituting the share buyback. It's not being permited while the investigation is being conducted.
I believe something is going on in the background which requires Ebix to be quiet. I think that the SEC is investigating short activity.
Prices on retail stocks indicate that it is dead but my shopping experiences here in the Seattle area the last couple of weeks indicate different. The area's largest mall was packed yesterday. It looked like Christmas at the mall. Yes, there was Labor Day sales going on but they weren't any better priced than any other year.
Glad to hear that my ramblings help you. Here's some more:
They didn't cover because they were quaranteed a $20 cover if held through the merger process. Their only small concern was the possibility of a higher offer. But in after-thought, I believe that they were expecting the merger to fail. They did have that extra investigation up their sleeve which magically appeared on the last day of the go shop period.
Most shorts are not nice people. They are the people that Dr Phil calls BAITERs as a larger group of characters from antisocial personalities to psychopaths. Dr Phil points out that BAITERs can be grouped together since they have the same goals and attributes. They are intellegent but untrustworthy. They lack empathy and compassion. They are selfish, self centered and paranoid to the point that they must get others before they get them. They lie, cheat, admit no wrong, and at times do physical harm to others. It's about time that the government offices get a criminal profiler to educate them instead of believing and taking action on those accused by them. It's a game with them; it's not so much the money but the thrill of doing harm. Mr Yu is not much better than his two friends, Sam Antar and Marc Cohodes. I can't determine if Greg Farrell is part of group or just being charmed and/or controled by them. Mr Yu and Marc Cohodes did try to pressure another writer on July 8th to join them without success. I do believe though that their stories are about to fall apart under any investigation. Their anonymous sources/witnesses are no better than they are. It's a good chance that they are BAITERs too. I do more observing and thinking rather than talking, and most of the time I have the ability to read people like a book. The more contact/information the better that I read people. Even though I don't know for sure, I don't read Raina as a BAITER even though Sam Antar says that he is. But Antar = liar without scruples.
I think your $28 is high. I think their longer term average is in the lower $20s. Maybe $22 or $23. It's still high and most didn't have any incentive to cover at the buyout price of $20.
I'd cover tomorrow early. It will open higher, maybe as high as $16.15. That drop at the end of the day was synthetically caused.
This crew doesn't care about good numbers. They want CHS to die. ahaveworkingforhavenots is that you Rocky? It sounds about like the old Rocky.