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Intel Corporation Message Board

paul.ottelini 80 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 9:06 PM Member since: Oct 12, 2007
  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jan 30, 2015 9:06 PM Flag

    Current drop seems to be a good buying opportunity for me.
    All my January 2015 calls have obviously been sold and stock behaved
    pretty well all the way through end of expiration. Leaving me with quite a bit
    of cash to build a larger position for 2016 and beyond.
    Needless to say, I added to my position in the past week including today.
    Did you decide to add some yourself?
    I am very confident in Intel's abilities to do quite well in earnings this year and beyond.
    Stocks, I'm just holding. I just added to my January 2016 call positions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Alex Gauna of JMP securities has a buy rating on QCOM with a $85 target.
    Yet he does not like Intel and has a sell rating on it.
    As a reminder, he first downgraded Intel from buy to neutral when it was
    $21.40 a share. As the stock went up to $30's and beyond, he continued to talk
    negative about the stock. Wonder what he thinks of QCOM now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The low expectations from Seagate could certainly be attributed to market share loss to Western Digital and SSD memory makers such as Micron.
    As for the low expectations from Windows sales could be attributed to better Mac sales at Apple using Mac OS rather than Windows and maybe even to Google's chrome OS.

    Neither means it's a negative for Intel.
    Another major positive news that investors seem to ignore is the fact that surface pro 3 sales grew huge while surface rt was not even mentioned.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Both their desktop and laptop unit sales saw double digit growth.
    Combined Mac sales saw a 14.6% unit growth to a record 5.5 million units.
    While iPad unit sales saw a decline of 17.7% year over year.

    So much for tablets cannibalizing desktops and laptops.
    Intel looks to be a winner here.
    As for smartphone sales, has not been much of an issue for Intel.
    More of a problem for other smartphone sellers.
    Intel really had nothing to lose in smartphone market to begin with.
    Intel can only gain in this area over time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Today Intel obviously outperformed all three indices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Intel price targets above $40.

    by paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:01 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 21, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    Also, RBC capital has a $40 target price now.

    So that is at least 14 analysts with a target price of $40 or more on Intel.
    Highest being $50.
    Smart move to be on the positive side of Intel.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • He had maintained a buy rating on QCOM as of March 3, 2014 and raised target price to $85.
    Stock was around $75 a share.
    As of today, stock has dropped down to $68 a share because of Samsung dumping them
    in its Samsung Galaxy S.
    Why would anyone listen to this guy's recommendations on Intel when his accuracy on
    Intel recommendations has been a dismal 20%.
    Better odds in Vegas.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jan 21, 2015 6:32 AM Flag

    Well Intel really invested in ASML to help speed up production of 450 mm wafers.

    But it looks like it has paid off very nicely in stock price as well.
    When Intel took on about 15% stake in ASML company back in
    July of 2012, ASML traded at around $50 a share.
    The stock has more than doubled since that time.
    Intel has collected quite a hefty dividend since then, and now it looks like it stands
    to gain about $3.5 Billion in stock price as of today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jan 20, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    He has had a 20% success rate on making Intel recommendations.
    An investor has much better odds on playing roulette as Vegas. About a 50% success rate can be had over there.
    The average return for those who listened to him historically has
    been -12.4% on Intel. Yes, that's a negative 12.4%.
    The guy's recommendations on Intel are clearly a joke.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 20, 2015 9:03 AM Flag

    Correction: Intel closed at $36.45 last session.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Back in April 1 of 2013, they downgraded Intel from buy to neutral when the stock was $21.43.
    In only 1 month, the stock went up by $3 or 14%. Really missed the boat on that one.

    When Intel was trading at $25.85, after January 17, 2014 earnings call, Alex Guana of JMP securities came back and had more negative comments about Intel saying that they totally missed mobility.
    Intel continued to go up to $30's during the year.
    So when Intel was trading at $31.28 on October 15, 2014, Alex Guana had another negative comment about Intel saying that they are concerned about Intel's spending of cash.
    Intel continues to go up to as much as $37.90 at 52 week high.
    Here we are at $36.69 and JMP decides to downgrade the stock to sell, saying that they are concerned about Intel Data Center business.
    Do investors really want to listen to someone who has been negative on Intel since Intel started breakout from low $20's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Well, in 2014 they proved that they can really beat the high end of guidance.
    CEO and CFO knew that there was a huge need for PC refresh yet they guided
    for flat revenue, being very conservative.
    Their guidance for 2014 during their 2013 Q4 earnings call was for revenue near $52.7 Billion,
    (this usually comes with plus or minus $2 Billion), gross margin of 60% plus or minus 2%,
    costs of $18.6Billion, amortization of about $300 million, and tax rate of about 27%.
    Thanks to PC refresh and strong DCG numbers, they came in at revenue of $3.19 Billion growth,
    gross margin of 63.7%, costs of about $19.7 Billion, amortization and restructuring of about $580 million,
    and a tax rate of about 26%. This gave them net income of $11.7 Billion, but thanks to outstanding share drop down to 4.94 Billion they got EPS of $2.31.

    With the help of further PC refresh in enterprise, Windows 10 update, and new form factors in PC using 14nm manufacturing, Intel may very well come in at high end of guidance at the very least.
    They guided for 2015 to come in with revenues of about $58.7 Billion, gross margin of 62% plus or minus 2%,
    costs of $20 Billion plus or minue $400 million, amortization of about $255 million, and tax rate of 27%.
    I also believe that they will at least buy back $6 Billion worth of stock which could bring their share count down to 4.86 Billion shares.
    Beating high end can give Intel revenues of near $60 Billion, gross margin of about 64%, costs of about $20.4 Billion and amortization and restructuring of about $400 million, with gains on investments of about $400 million also, and a tax rate of about 26% again.
    This translates into net income of about $13.4 Billion and EPS of about $2.76. Expectaions currently stand at $2.38. As the year progresses, I believe that earnings estimates will be raised quarter by quarter as Intel beat quarterly expectations and realizes strong demand in PC refresh and need for DCG upgrades.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Intel price targets above $40.

    by paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:01 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    Oops!
    Forgot Credit Suisse.
    They also have $40 target price on Intel and an outperform rating.
    So that's a total of 13 analysts so far that have $40 or more target price on Intel.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Intel price targets above $40.

    by paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:01 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    That's 12 analysts that have price target of $40 or more.
    Maybe more if anyone can find any.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    Most of the analyst, even the bearish ones raised their price targets after earnings.

    Here are the ones that currently have a target of $40 or more.

    Imperial Capital $40
    Stifel $41
    Piper Jaffray $41
    Roth Capital $41
    FBR & Co. $42
    Deutsche Bank $42
    Merril Lynch $43
    B Riley & Co. $43
    MKM Partners $45
    Wells Fargo $40 to $50
    Drexel Hamilton $50
    Jeffries & Co. $50

    Could be more, but these are the ones I found.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I for one will be buying if the stock goes down as much as it has so far in after hours.
    If Intel will be in a bit of a profit taking period, how low do you think the stock can reach before
    it goes back to its upward climb to $40's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Need to add more contracts of 2016 as 2015 calls have been closed.
    Current potential drop in stock price may give me that opportunity to increase
    position to a very nice amount as I strongly believe Intel will have a very good
    year in 2015 and stock will easily surpass $40 and move up to as high as
    $50's within the year. Earnings was good while guidance was very conservative.
    Signs of Intel continuing to positively surprise market in future earnings calls.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Another WOW!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EPS up 45% over last year's.

    by paul.ottelini Jan 15, 2015 5:14 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 15, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    2014 EPS up 22.22% over 2013 results.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jan 15, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

INTC
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