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Intel Corporation Message Board

paul.ottelini 33 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 43 minutes ago Member since: Oct 12, 2007
  • This from Russ Fischer from Seeking Alpha article.
    Conclusion:

    I think there's little doubt that Intel is in the memory business and very soon will be even more committed to the memory business.

    The two new memory technologies could represent $74 billion in growth business for Intel over the next three years.

    Processor performance has been held back by the "memory wall" for more than a decade.

    The last step in performance will be to include system memory and some level of storage in the CPU package. That last move eliminates any possibility of competition for system memory and storage, making high memory margin persistent.

    No other semiconductor company can implement this strategy because , very simply, they don't have ownership of the X86 CPU business.

    The present value of Intel with a growth rate of 25% for four years and 27% net margin and $1 dividend would be $91. Of course, those numbers are not evident today. I believe the fog will begin to clear by the end on 2015. I think we see $45 in 2016, $65 in 2017 and $85 in 2018.

    To believers, today's price of $27 is a screaming buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wow, so many stupidly oversold stocks

    by wallisweaver Aug 22, 2015 6:17 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 23, 2015 1:57 AM Flag

    If this continues for another month or so, I'm going to be able to add to my Intel stock position
    and continue to build my 2017 call position. I've already started buying the Intel $28 calls for 2017.
    If it goes lower, I'll look into buying the $25's as well.
    Cashed in lots of $20's, $22's, $25's, and $27's for 2015 prior to expiration, so I still have lots of
    cash left to reinvest into new leaps. Lots of cash from gains so I won't even be using my own money.
    As for the stock, it's just a nice and secure dividend play. I have no doubt Intel will eventually get into the $40's.
    If not in 2016, I'll wait for 2017. Lots of great technological breakthroughs coming from Intel.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Aug 22, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    The great smartphone revolution is all Qualcomm investors can really talk about to justify it
    PE. Currently Qualcomm has forward PE of 12.3 while Intel has a forward PE of 11.4.
    Let's see who should have the higher PE and who has better chance at growth.

    Qualcomm currently expected to have a decrease in EPS by over 11% from 2014 to 2016
    while Intel is expected to have a slight EPS growth of 0.4%.
    Qualcomm currently expected to have a decrease in sales of 10.7% from 2014 to 2016
    while Intel is expected to have sales growth of about 2.8%.
    And given the many more areas that Intel has potential in, including the very lucrative data
    center and memory, I'd place my bets on Intel.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Aug 21, 2015 9:32 PM Flag

    The company ended the third quarter of fiscal 2015 with cash and marketable investments of $7.33 billion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Micron shares 2 years ago.

    by paul.ottelini Aug 20, 2015 1:36 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 20, 2015 1:41 AM Flag

    Okay.
    So back then, Micron had quarterly revenues of $2.9 Billion.
    Current quarter was at $3.85 Billion.
    Back then they had net income of $43 million and EPS of .04 per share.
    Current quarter was net income of $620 million and EPS of .54 per share.
    Back then they had operating cash flow of $624 million.
    Current quarter they had $1.34 Billion.
    Back then they had cash and marketable investments of $2.9 Billion.
    Current quarter they were at $7.33 Billion.

    And the stock price is the same? Really?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Aug 20, 2015 1:36 AM Flag

    Stock traded about where the stock is trading today.
    But this is the earnings that Micron had back then.
    Micron Technology, Inc., (Nasdaq:MU) today announced results of
    operations for its third quarter of fiscal 2013, which ended May 30, 2013. For the third quarter, the company had net income attributable to Micron shareholders of $43 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, on net sales of $2.3 billion. The results for the third quarter of fiscal 2013 compare to a net loss of $286 million, or ($0.28) per diluted share, on net sales of $2.1 billion for the second quarter of fiscal 2013, and a net loss of $320 million, or ($0.32) per diluted share, on net sales of $2.2 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2012.
    The company's consolidated gross margin improved to 24 percent in the third quarter of fiscal 2013 compared to 18 percent in the second quarter of fiscal 2013. Gross margins for both DRAM and NAND Flash products improved due to increases in average selling prices. DRAM gross margins also benefited from decreases in manufacturing costs.
    Revenues from sales of DRAM products in the third quarter of fiscal 2013 were 23 percent higher compared to the second quarter due to a 16 percent increase in average selling prices and a 6 percent increase in sales volume. Revenues from sales of NAND Flash products were 7 percent higher in the third quarter of fiscal 2013 compared to the second quarter primarily due to an 8 percent increase in Trade NAND Flash average selling prices.
    Cash flows from operations for the third quarter of fiscal 2013 were $624 million, while investments in capital expenditures were $235 million. The company ended the third fiscal quarter with cash and investments of $2.9 billion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought some more Micron

    by wallisweaver Aug 19, 2015 11:02 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 19, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    I just recently bought also, will wait if another drop occurs by about 75 cents to a dollar.
    Thinking about buying more Intel long term leaps for 2017.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Aug 18, 2015 9:16 PM Flag

    This is what micron said about cash and equivalents during last earnings.
    The company ended the third quarter
    of fiscal 2015 with cash and marketable investments of $7.33 billion.

    That's about $6.85 a share.
    They have that much margin safety while the most negative analyst still thinks that MU
    will make $1.37 EPS net after taxes during the 2016 year. It is worth mention though that
    the most positive analyst has them at $4.05 while the average is at $2.34.
    So Micron is not losing money.
    Micron is trading 5.45 trailing PE and at 7 forward PE looking at the average and at about 4 forward PE looking at high end of estimates. Even at the very low end of estimates, stock is still trading at a cheap 12 forward PE. Much less than market average.
    Long term have absolutely no problem owning this stock under $20.
    Even if a sale may not occur, fact is there was some entity that decided they are
    worth at least $23 a share by offering the buy the whole company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Yep, bought more Micron

    by wallisweaver Aug 15, 2015 3:28 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 16, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    Just a note.
    Micron seems to have missed EPS estimates by 2 cents or about 3%
    yet the stock plunges almost 30% so far.
    Insanely oversold seems to be a fair statement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Yep, bought more Micron

    by wallisweaver Aug 15, 2015 3:28 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 16, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    I've built quite a position myself in micron in stock only. No options since they are high in premium.
    But did sell puts which may place me in a position to buy some more if stock stays low. Market is unjustly punishing this stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 6, 2015 7:04 AM Flag

    My smartphone is nowhere near my PC or laptop in performance. And it has a Qualcomm processor.
    Can't wait for Intel to allow more and more Intel based smartphones to appear in the US.
    I have so much trouble viewing Yahoo Finance or Sports on my smartphone that sometimes I totally give up and wait to get on my desktop. Using my smartphone to make any stock or options trades is pretty much impossible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Microsoft obviously realized that trying to sell tablets with ARM processors was a complete
    waste of time. Had to take huge write offs due to complete failure in Surface tablets with Windows RT
    and ARM processors.
    Yet now, they are enjoying great sales in both Surface Pro 3 and Surface 3 tablets thanks to Intel only processors.
    So why don't we see headlines such as this?
    "Surface tablet sales surge after Microsoft chooses to stop support for ARM based processors and go with Intel only"

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Nothing but negative on Intel and Micron.
    Totally taking what companies like IBM claim for face value.
    And pretty much ignoring the real advancements Intel has made themselves.

    And they call themselves "market realist"

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Aug 4, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    The New Edition

    The new edition is a curved rectangle, similar to the first Explorer version. It has a button-and-hinge system that helps clip-on to different glasses, unlike the previous version which had a wire-like frame.

    It consists of a faster Intel INTC Atom processor, as well as an optional external battery pack. Therefore, the device is touted to deliver faster performance, improved wireless connectivity and up to two hours of longer battery life. It in fact comes with a battery pack that Google developed particularly to attach magnetically to the gadget.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jul 30, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    Definitely for Apple, tablet growth looks terrible compared to Intel's PC growth.
    Gartner estimates that PC growth will decline by 4.4% in 2015.
    It also estimates that overall tablet growth will decline by 6%.
    Being that Apple has mostly been the tablet of choice, I will share the numbers
    on Apple's iPad growth compared to Intel's PC growth.
    Apple's iPad was a new form factor which reached some maturity in the year of 2013.
    It had sales of 71.1 million units for 2013.
    In 2014, Apple saw its unit sales of iPads drop by 3.8% while Intel saw its unit sales of PC's
    grow by 8%.
    In 2015, Intel is on pace to see its unit sales of PC's drop by about 5% while Apple is expected to
    see its unit sales drop by over 19%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Intel Catalysts

    by wallisweaver Jul 28, 2015 1:39 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jul 28, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    Glad I bought more micron yesterday.
    Could not add to my Intel position this morning, but I have enough.
    This is going to be huge for Intel and micron.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Intel Catalysts

    by wallisweaver Jul 28, 2015 1:39 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jul 28, 2015 2:03 AM Flag

    Today I added more to my very recent micron position.
    I may buy some more Intel 2017 leap calls tomorrow prior to micron announcement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jul 23, 2015 6:29 AM Flag

    I'm currently accumulating more Intel and have started accumulating MU as well for the first time. I started on MU about a few weeks ago. Market seems to be brainwashed at times by some negative analysts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Let's see.
    Intel, the leader in PC sales and Data Center sales for this quarter reported a drop in sales year over year
    by 5% and net income drop by 3%. And they guided a drop in sales for Q3 of only 2%.
    As for Qualcomm, who is supposed to be kicking Intel's but in mobile chips had a drop in sales for this quarter of 14% year over year with a net income drop of 35%. And their guidance for Q3 was a drop in sales of a disastrous 22.3%. OUCH!
    And Qualcomm's current PEG stands at 2.07 compared to Intel's 1.61.
    Qualcomm's forward PE stands at 12.66 compared to Intel's 12.33.
    Qualcomm's current EPS results and estimates are for a drop in EPS for this year of 9.3% compared to Intel's drop of only 6.9% and a gain in EPS for next year of 6% compared to Intel's gain of 7.9%.
    But obviously, analysts will have to slash estimates given the latest guidance by Qualcomm which will make Qualcomm's numbers look even worse.
    I think I will stick with Intel.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jul 21, 2015 12:57 AM Flag

    12. You're right, it has a free upgrade offer. But a lot of the really good features of Windows 10, things like Windows 10 "Hello", where you have facial log-in and you don't have to use all your passwords, the start screen, and your ability to go through that, the touch usages of gaming as they move games more and more onto this product, those are going to come with PC's that have the latest features.

    13. RE: Micron and 3D NAND:
    "So absolutely, I can tell you that we're on schedule to ramp the products in the second half. 3D NAND is looking quite good. From a cost, yield, and performance, I don't think we've gone public with much of those numbers right now. But what we have said is that 3D NAND, especially with the architectural choices that Micron and Intel chose, we believe gives a significant cost and performance advantage over their competitors, and those specifics are holding as we go through the ramp process. So we haven't broken down it's X% or anything like that yet. We'll be doing NAND updates as we go through the back half of this year and give you guys more color in that space. Clearly, at the investor meeting that Stacy talked about, we'll spend some time on NAND because, as you said, it's a good growth area for the company right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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