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Intel Corporation Message Board

paul.ottelini 140 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 8, 2014 11:14 PM Member since: Oct 12, 2007
  • Reply to

    Who's Your Daddy, Lucy?

    by wallisweaver Sep 8, 2014 5:31 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Sep 8, 2014 11:14 PM Flag

    Even during my break/vacation, Intel continues to make me some serious money.
    I thought about exiting at around $30 when I was holding at $18 to $24, but I'm
    glad the news has been strong enough for me to hold on to all my shares and strategically
    transferring my long term calls to even longer term calls. I am proud to admit at this point
    that Intel is over 95% of my total stock and call option holdings. Hope all my fellow longs are enjoying the
    gains in Intel as much as I am. We certainly deserve it for believing in such a great company with undisputed leading edge technology

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    iPad article

    by intel_fanboy Aug 28, 2014 10:06 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 29, 2014 5:04 AM Flag

    Apple had sales of 71 million ipad units for last year.
    This year, they are most likely to get sales of about 68 million units.
    A drop of 3 million units year over year or down about 4%.

    While Intel is on track to grow sales from 10 million last year
    to about 40 million units this year.
    Clearly momentum is on Intel's side.
    That's a growth of 30 million units year over year or 300% growth.
    With at least 200 tablet designs using Intel based processors by the upcoming holidays,
    Intel could very well continue its aggressive growth in tablet market.
    And if consumers decide to go with traditional laptops that can convert into a tablet, that clearly will benefit Intel even more thanks to those type of hybrid machines using the more expensive Intel processors.
    It's very likely that Intel based tablets will surpass ipads in 2015 unless Apple does something very different with its iPads.
    And changing the processors to the more capable ones from Intel is the only way they can provide something very different.
    If Apple wants its iPads to be best in class, then they need the best in class processors from Intel.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Conclusion

    I haven't seen a new product release from Intel for months. In the last couple of days, I've seen one leaked and one from Intel.

    I'll bet from here we see a tsunami of product and technology announcements from Intel leading up to the IDF and the first couple days of the gathering. All we need is one big one to tack on a few bucks to the share price.

    In the absence of a complete economic meltdown (2007-2008), or what many claimed was the terminal decline of the PC, Intel has always added a buck or two during the US IDF.

    As usual, I will be event-playing the 2014 IDF with short term near-the-money call options.

    Good luck everyone.

    Yahoo stopped publishing SA articles but Google Finance still has them.
    Especially enjoy reading Russ Fischer's articles on Intel.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just Waiting on IFA and IDF

    by wallisweaver Aug 27, 2014 12:47 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 27, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    "4.) Intel taking major tablet market share"

    Let's look at this for a minute.

    Overall tablet growth for 2014 now expected to slowdown to 5%.
    While Intel is on track to grow to 40 million tablet chip sales, or 300% growth.
    With 200 tablet designs to use Intel chips by the holidays, Intel could very well
    exceed the 300% expected growth.
    Intel to grow 300% or more while overall tablet market expected to grow 5% .
    I would say your claim of Intel taking major tablet market share is pretty accurate indeed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Poll of the Day

    by wallisweaver Aug 26, 2014 2:05 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 27, 2014 12:52 AM Flag

    It doesn't really matter, like you said.
    Cause the closest thing to an answer is that Intel bashers are ignored.
    I for one rather mention the positives that Intel has on its side and keep track of
    all the gains and profits I'm enjoying while holding on to the stock while shifting my
    calls to longer term ones. Hope 2015 becomes even more painful to shorts as 2014 has been.
    I'm sure end of 2013 was not that much fun for them either.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 26, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    My point is that while the market on tablets is expected to grow only 5%, likely smaller than overall PC shipments, Intel seems to be doing much better than market.
    Here are the known facts that Intel disclosed much earlier than today.
    Intel's announced goal is to ship 40 million tablet processors in 2014.
    That's 4 times higher than 2013 or a 300% growth.
    So while the market grows only 5%, Intel may very well see 300% growth.
    Intel shipped a record 5 million processors for tablets in Q1.
    Intel shipped another record of 10 million processors for tablets in Q2.
    That's twice as much as Q1 or a 100% sequential growth for Intel.
    Now for Q3 and Q4, Intel expects to at least ship another $25 million.
    That's an average of 12.5 million per quarter.
    That's very much attainable due to the back to school season being here for Q3 and
    the holidays for Q4. And in the second half there will be many more designs using Intel
    processors than there were in the first half.
    So 40 million is pretty much in the bag in my opinion and I think Intel could make a run for
    60 million total for 2014. The holidays could be very big for Intel based tablets, provided that
    tablet sales overall actually grow.
    If not, then Intel will benefit even more in the highly profitable PC market that they already dominate
    in a very big way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here's the article for today.

    Intel is aggressively cooperating with Taiwan and China-based tablet players, looking to push its tablet processor shipments to 25 million units in the second half of the year in order to achieve its annual shipment goal of 40 million units, according to sources from the upstream supply chain. Intel shipped less than 15 million tablet processors in the first half of the year.

    Impacted by low-priced notebooks and large-sized smartphones, tablet shipments may only reach 200 million units in 2014 with an on-year growth of less than 5%. Apple, Samsung Electronics and Asustek Computer may even suffer from shipment drops in the year, the sources said.

    Intel recently cooperated with several China white-box tablet players and Taiwan tablet players to release new low-price tablets and these devices are expected to enter mass production by the end of September or early October in order to catch up with holiday season demand in the fourth quarter.

    Intel's platform has also attracted first-tier vendors' adoptions. Asustek, Dell, Acer, Hewlett-Packard (HP), Sharp, Lenovo, Sony, Toshiba and Fujitsu all plan to release Intel-based tablets. Asustek's Fonepad series products have had strong sales in Southeast Asia, while Dell's Venue tablets also enjoy good demand.

    Intel expects that more than 200 Intel-based tablets will be released in 2014 and so far about 70 Intel-based tablets have been released in China, all using Intel Atom Z3000 series processors.

    The sources pointed out that if Intel is able to achieve its 40 million shipment goal, the company will be able to acquire almost 20% of the global market and with its new SoFIA solution for the entry-level market and its new 14nm Cherry Trail platform, Intel is expected to continue pushing into the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Fair value

    There are several possible ways to calculate the fair or intrinsic value of a company's shares, I will use Graham's revised formula from 1974 as well as the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) method.

    Graham's formula for calculating the intrinsic value is:

    V = EPS * (8.5+2*G)*4.4/Y


    V = Intrinsic Value

    EPS = Earnings per Share of the last twelve months

    G = Estimated EPS growth rate over the next five years

    Y = Yield on AAA corporate bonds

    By applying Intel's numbers to this equation we get a value of

    $2.02*(8.5+2*8.83)*4.4/4.2 = $55.36.

    The DCF method sums up the value of a company's free cash flows from now until infinity (but discounts them to present value). I make the assumption that FCF per share and earnings per share are equal over a long time since it's much easier to get EPS numbers.

    If we use the current EPS of 2.02 and the estimated growth rate of 8.83% over the next five years and an EPS growth rate of 5% after that (which in my opinion is rather conservative, since EPS should increase due to increase in volume, increase in prize per unit sold (inflation) as well as share buybacks), and calculate with a discount factor of 10% (meaning we are aiming for a 10% capital return per year), the fair value is $49.99.

    A slightly less conservative assumption of an EPS growth rate of 5.5% from year 6 on would equal a fair value of $54.67, very consistent with Graham's formula.

    Both approaches come up with a fair value clearly above current share prizes (around 60%), so, even if being conservative and applying a margin of safety of 20-30%, it looks like it's still a good idea to buy Intel's shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Dow closed up 2% this week.
    Nasdaq closed up 1.6% this week.

    While Intel closed up 2.25% this week.

    Another good week for Intel stock.
    And another bad and painful week for Intel shorts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts gains are limited.

    by paul.ottelini Aug 21, 2014 4:59 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 22, 2014 12:49 AM Flag

    I guess your question was not sincere.
    Wasted time explaining my investment in Intel to you.
    My mistake.
    Will keep my strategies to myself and just enjoy the profits and long term gains.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • About a 5 million to 10 million share buyback by Intel
    could have caused such a nice run up today.
    It has happened before in the past 2 months where in a single
    day we have higher volume with a nice rise in stock price but with
    no significant news.
    Intel has promised about $8 Billion dollars worth of buyback between July 1 to
    the end of the year. So lots more of this type of action left to be seen.
    That alone could put us near $40 by end of this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts gains are limited.

    by paul.ottelini Aug 21, 2014 4:59 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 21, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    Okay. If your question is sincere, then here is my answer.
    I have been owning Intel stock and long term calls.
    I will never go negative on Intel, but also am okay with taking profits.
    But to stay in Intel at all times, I sell some of my calls only to replace them with next year's calls.
    For example, I will sell my deep in the money calls of 2015 as the stock rises, only to buy slightly in or slightly out of the money calls for 2016. This allows me to pocket lots of profit, but have the same amount of calls for the future date. Kind of like paying a small premium for the insurance of holding on to most of my gains while extending my calls for another year. As for the stock, I have no problem collecting the dividends since they are much higher than savings rates or CD's. I may sell some if the stock reaches near $50. But at any weakness, say like about a 10 to 20% drop, I will buy stocks back. Currently, I am very heavy in Intel, but because of my willingness to pocket the profits of deep in the money calls with longer term calls with some premium, I am invested with my profits only with some left over cash as well. Even if Intel stock goes to zero now, I will still be very much in the positive. Thing is though that I do not get that excited over a $1 or $2 rise over a month period. I am patient to wait for $4 or more moves to switch my calls. See, when you are making good money, you don't mind sharing your strategy. But shorts, they only seem to attack on this board with no detail in their success in shorting Intel, because they are actually losing most of the time. Trying to time the stock dropping a dollar or two is alot harder than waiting for a nice move like the one we are seeing now. Intel also did this before going from $19 to $29, probably twice in the past 3 years at least. Now we are experiencing a breakout.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Aug 21, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    When shorts were taking jabs at Intel at the low $20's, say about $22, they didn't have
    much downside to hope for.
    Those who went short at that time, needed for Intel to go down to $6 to make the same kind of
    gains that longs are enjoying today. Lucy was very sure about selling Intel at $20 and jumping into
    Cisco at the same time. That's missing out on $15 of gains and about 3 to 4 years of dividends.
    I'm very happy where Intel stock is at today and am very confident we are going much higher.
    That's why I intend on keeping Intel as my most significant position in the stock market.
    And my only call option position for both 2015 and 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A 12.5 year high, not counting the dividends.
    A nearly 14 year high, counting the dividends.
    And there's much more happiness waiting for Intel longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 21, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    These guys are paid to shake out the weak hands.
    Shameless crooks to say the least.
    Stock is nearly double his target price and he has been reiterating
    a sell on Intel since it was below $19.
    Maybe the pumpers of this board encouraged those who feared the doom and gloom stories of James Covello, to hold on to their shares from $19 to now. An 85% gain without counting the dividends. Food for thought to pumperkryptonut.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Poll of the Day

    by wallisweaver Aug 21, 2014 1:26 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 21, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    They all do, but I would say Lucy the most.
    Since Lucy could very well be the majority of the Intel shorts (being that they have lots of aliases),
    he could also be a big chunk of the correction crowd on this board ( again, aliases), and a prominent member of the Intel paid shill pool for negativity to be exact.
    Who knows, Jimbo Covello himself could actually be Lucy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Aug 21, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Intel Developers Forum
    September 9 - 11, 2014
    2:00 PM - 12:00 AM
    Speaker: Various Executives

    Should be good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Aug 21, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    or rather an eleven year high.
    Must be another very painful day for Intel haters.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    apology guy enjoys agitating people

    by mike.putzman Aug 19, 2014 1:54 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 19, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    It's a byproduct of someone who has lost his shirt investing.
    In his case, going against Intel has cost him most if not all of his money.
    Most of the people he is trying to agitate are ones who are laughing at him while
    enjoying the big gains they have seen in their Intel holdings.
    Pitiful character he is.
    Most likely has no life at all and now has no money as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Barron's: $45 and $50 price targets on Intel

    by wallisweaver Aug 19, 2014 10:21 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Aug 19, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Yeah I saw that piece on Barron's August 12.
    Seem like the most reasonable price targets on Intel for the time being.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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