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Intel Corporation Message Board

paul.ottelini 45 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 12, 2015 10:48 AM Member since: Oct 12, 2007
  • Well, in 2014 they proved that they can really beat the high end of guidance.
    CEO and CFO knew that there was a huge need for PC refresh yet they guided
    for flat revenue, being very conservative.
    Their guidance for 2014 during their 2013 Q4 earnings call was for revenue near $52.7 Billion,
    (this usually comes with plus or minus $2 Billion), gross margin of 60% plus or minus 2%,
    costs of $18.6Billion, amortization of about $300 million, and tax rate of about 27%.
    Thanks to PC refresh and strong DCG numbers, they came in at revenue of $3.19 Billion growth,
    gross margin of 63.7%, costs of about $19.7 Billion, amortization and restructuring of about $580 million,
    and a tax rate of about 26%. This gave them net income of $11.7 Billion, but thanks to outstanding share drop down to 4.94 Billion they got EPS of $2.31.

    With the help of further PC refresh in enterprise, Windows 10 update, and new form factors in PC using 14nm manufacturing, Intel may very well come in at high end of guidance at the very least.
    They guided for 2015 to come in with revenues of about $58.7 Billion, gross margin of 62% plus or minus 2%,
    costs of $20 Billion plus or minue $400 million, amortization of about $255 million, and tax rate of 27%.
    I also believe that they will at least buy back $6 Billion worth of stock which could bring their share count down to 4.86 Billion shares.
    Beating high end can give Intel revenues of near $60 Billion, gross margin of about 64%, costs of about $20.4 Billion and amortization and restructuring of about $400 million, with gains on investments of about $400 million also, and a tax rate of about 26% again.
    This translates into net income of about $13.4 Billion and EPS of about $2.76. Expectaions currently stand at $2.38. As the year progresses, I believe that earnings estimates will be raised quarter by quarter as Intel beat quarterly expectations and realizes strong demand in PC refresh and need for DCG upgrades.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Intel price targets above $40.

    by paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:01 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    Oops!
    Forgot Credit Suisse.
    They also have $40 target price on Intel and an outperform rating.
    So that's a total of 13 analysts so far that have $40 or more target price on Intel.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Intel price targets above $40.

    by paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:01 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    That's 12 analysts that have price target of $40 or more.
    Maybe more if anyone can find any.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jan 16, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    Most of the analyst, even the bearish ones raised their price targets after earnings.

    Here are the ones that currently have a target of $40 or more.

    Imperial Capital $40
    Stifel $41
    Piper Jaffray $41
    Roth Capital $41
    FBR & Co. $42
    Deutsche Bank $42
    Merril Lynch $43
    B Riley & Co. $43
    MKM Partners $45
    Wells Fargo $40 to $50
    Drexel Hamilton $50
    Jeffries & Co. $50

    Could be more, but these are the ones I found.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I for one will be buying if the stock goes down as much as it has so far in after hours.
    If Intel will be in a bit of a profit taking period, how low do you think the stock can reach before
    it goes back to its upward climb to $40's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Need to add more contracts of 2016 as 2015 calls have been closed.
    Current potential drop in stock price may give me that opportunity to increase
    position to a very nice amount as I strongly believe Intel will have a very good
    year in 2015 and stock will easily surpass $40 and move up to as high as
    $50's within the year. Earnings was good while guidance was very conservative.
    Signs of Intel continuing to positively surprise market in future earnings calls.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Another WOW!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EPS up 45% over last year's.

    by paul.ottelini Jan 15, 2015 5:14 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 15, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    2014 EPS up 22.22% over 2013 results.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jan 15, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Instead we got 4% rise in PC sales with a rise of 25% in operating profits.

    Expect Intel to continue to beat guidance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jan 15, 2015 4:46 PM Flag

    Big time!

    Consensus was 66 cents
    Intel's actual was 74 cents.

    Q1 was very conservative to allow Intel for another beat.

    I believe Intel will come in at high end of guidance this time with very nice gross margins and some favorable tax rate. An EPS of about 59 cents or so.
    Consensus currently stands at 51 cents. So another beat coming up in 3 months.
    Any weakness in the stock price is a good buying opportunity of a stock that headed for the
    $50's in 2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I believe that Intel will beat estimates by a very nice margin.
    I think for the first time ever, Intel will surpass $15 Billion in quarterly revenue and come in at about
    $15.1 Billion. With gross margin of about 64%.
    EPS will be at 70 cents.
    Guidance for Q1 of 2015 will be well above estimates but conservative to allow another beat.
    I believe Intel is capable of reaching revenues of $14.5 Billion for Q1, however, they will guide at around $14 Billion plus or minue $500 million with gross margin of about 62%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 13, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    Smartphones being like dumb PC's.
    What I mean by that is that they don't do what your laptops or desktops can do. Very low on productivity. Very limited in PC like capabilities.

    Simpler PC, what I meant was that the PC market should be simpler to penetrate before the server market. The demands on the server are for the most part, much more than they are on PC's. They pretty much serve PC's, tablets, and smartphones among other things and services.
    So the PC market is a simpler form of computation as is a server. That's what I meant.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ARM fails while Intel wins!

    by paul.ottelini Jan 13, 2015 4:25 PM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 13, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    ARM isn’t just losing – Intel is winning

    Not only has Intel managed to pick up most of the laptop, hybrid, convertible PC and Windows-based tablets with its low-powered laptop-grade processors, but the company has developed two highly efficient competitors, Atom and Core M.

    Atom has been around for years, but early versions disappointed with poor performance. The netbook fad rose and fell on the back of the original Atom’s inability to fulfill expectations. Intel gave the brand a major refresh in 2013, however, bestowing it with quicker quad-core processors. Since then Atom has become a viable chip for devices that prioritize affordable pricing and portability.

    Intel Core MCore M, introduced late last year, is essentially a step between the entry-level power of Atom and the impressive grunt of the Core line. It is based on the same architecture as the latter, Broadwell, and delivers strong performance while consuming just a few watts. Price is the only drawback, but Core M still fits into some notebooks sold under $1,000.

    If Windows RT killed ARM’s chances in computing, Intel put the nails in its coffin. There’s no longer space for a competitor. CES 2015 made that obvious; many notebooks were revealed, but none had ARM inside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini by paul.ottelini Jan 13, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    article: ARM fails to flex at CES 2015

    Two years ago it looked like chips designed by Advanced RISC Machines, or ARM, might compete successfully with Intel for a chunk of the laptop, convertible, and hybrid PC market. Traditionally, ARM processors have powered cellphones and tablets, but the release of Windows RT opened a brief chance to transition into mainstream computers.

    That was an exciting possibility. Intel’s research and development is unmatched, but it’s only one company, and it tends to focus on powerful, expensive chips. ARM offered a different, more affordable path, but numerous obstacles have kept its chip from moving into mainstream PCs.
    Broken Windows

    While Windows RT probably wasn’t the only thing dragging ARM CPUs down, the fact they couldn’t run standard Windows didn’t help. It became apparent after the debut of Windows 8 that users would rather pay slightly more for “full” Windows.

    The death of RT cut chips based on ARM off from the vast majority of users.

    Indeed, it could be argued that Microsoft accidentally became ARM’s greatest enemy. Excitement about inexpensive Windows devices with great battery life instantly became apprehension when users realized that Windows RT could not run traditional Windows applications and would be strapped to inexpensive, undesirable devices.

    The death of RT cut chips based on ARM off from the vast majority of users. Sure, there’s been some success in Chromebooks, but Google’s operating system represents a tiny sliver of the market despite its accelerating popularity. And even they choose to rely on Intel chips more often than an alternative.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 13, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    The server market has alot of profit for Intel. Others have tried it before like AMD.
    There is a very big hurdle to clear before reaching those huge profits. And even if they do
    clear, there is also a possibility that those profits may not be realized enough to justify the risks at that time. Capitalists have a better shot at going after the ridiculously high profits that Apple enjoys from the smart phone market. ARM based chip makers can't even
    penetrate the much simpler PC market. They have a respectable share in the tablet and smartphone market because those are pretty much dumb PC's. They need the capable servers to feed off of. And only Intel chips make sense to power those servers, because here cutting edge manufacturing technology actually matters. And in time it will matter enough for Intel to go aggressively after the smartphone as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 12, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    Sandisk's problems have absolutely nothing to do with Intel.

    Here are some details from Barron's article.

    iNAND products are flash memory modules that are built into mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets.

    The company plans to announce full results on January 21st.

    FBN’s Shebly Seyrafi, reiterating an Outperform rating, cuts his price target to $105 from $120, writing that “the key problem appears to be Samsung [Electronics (005930KS)]:

    Samsung’s smartphone sales growth has been decelerating for several quarters now. For example, Samsung’s smartphone unit sales grew by over 50% Y/Y in CH1 2013, but declined by 4% Y/Y in CQ2 2014 and by 8% Y/Y in CQ3 2014 as the company faces stronger competition from AAPL with the iPhone 6 and from a bevy of other smartphone makers including Xiaomi, Huawei (up 47% Y/Y in units in CQ3), Lenovo (up 63% Y/Y in units in CQ3), LG and others. Samsung is expected to announce its Galaxy S6 perhaps around March 2015, so this could help support growth somewhat.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Intel Earnings: Beat Or Beaten

    by wallisweaver Jan 11, 2015 2:42 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 11, 2015 10:04 PM Flag

    Ohhhhhhh yeah!
    Another year of some sweet gains sounds good to me.
    I read that article and totally agree.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Nokia might not make handsets these days but it looks like it can still turn out a popular tablet, with the company claiming its new N1 racked up sales of 20,000 units in four minutes and two seconds.

    The N1 went on sale in China on January 8 through local partners, which are selling the device for RMB 1599 ($257).

    Nokia announced the sales figures on its 'N1' account on Chinese social network Weibo - taking a leaf out of the marketing book of China's Xiaomi, which regularly boasts when new devices selling out within minutes of launch. According to the post, there are 566,438 others waiting in line to purchase an N1 tablet.

    Nokia announced the Lollipop-powered N1 tablet last November, with the device drawing comparisons to Apple's iPad mini.

    Nokia says no return to handsets as CEO lays out its plans for the future

    The 7.9 inch tablet is running on a 2.3GHz Intel 64-bit Z3580 Atom processor and comes with 2GB of RAM and 32GB of onboard storage, but has no microSD support. The device also comes with an eight-megapixel rear camera, a five-megapixel front camera and a 2,048 x 1,536 pixel display.

    Yes! That's an Intel 64 bit Z3580 Atom Processor.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wow, Look at All that Green

    by wallisweaver Jan 8, 2015 9:36 AM
    paul.ottelini paul.ottelini Jan 8, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    Looks real good. Just got out of my 2015 calls and moved them into 2016 leaps.
    Stocks, just keeping them. Stock obviously has plenty of room to go much much higher.
    Especially liking the bull case scenarios that Russ Fischer is writing about at SA.
    Wonder if any of the Lucy's will still be around here posting nonsense when the stock approaches
    $100 in about 3 to 5 years. Maybe even sooner.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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