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GameStop Corp. Message Board

paul_speculator 5 posts  |  Last Activity: May 25, 2014 9:51 PM Member since: Oct 23, 1999
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  • Reply to

    KORS Conference Call

    by qofaslave69 May 25, 2014 3:25 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator May 25, 2014 9:51 PM Flag

    have they not brought in the online sales in house yet? It was supposed to be happening around this time.

  • Reply to

    One concern about KORS

    by paul_speculator May 24, 2014 12:31 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator May 25, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    Q, I am not so sure of going with puts on kors. That comment from Fosl is actually a bit bearish at this point.
    That might scare more shorts and bring in more longs before the quarter...so the surprise good earnings may not have the effect bulls are looking for. I am only talking short term earnings effect; stock could rally even after a selloff.

    Things just don't look at clear to me; the surprise can only be on the downside...I think.

    best of luck.

  • Reply to

    One concern about KORS

    by paul_speculator May 24, 2014 12:31 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator May 25, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    gumby, It was not the lack of designs at Coach; everyone got a coach bag. That was the problem. If everyone had it, how can it be aspirational? Kors is at least not too many factory outlets and cheapening their brand..that is a good thing....but still if everyone has it...then what.

  • Reply to

    One concern about KORS

    by paul_speculator May 24, 2014 12:31 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator May 25, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    Q, You may be right. I might be overthinking this. I had been bullish on this stock from about 35 to high 70s.
    My concern would be not be channel stuffing; this management is way too good for that. Just possibility of too many orders in wholesale channel; the Dec quarter was too strong and the risk is there of an adjustment.
    This is the first time I am considering puts on this stock just before earnings. Only a speculative way out of the money trade. Too much bullishness and if everyone is wrong, it goes down...even if they come inline earnings and guidance, the downside could be significant. Small beat won't work this time.
    You admit that it will get saturated, we just don't know when. I am guessing this year sometime.

    gl.

  • paul_speculator by paul_speculator May 24, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    That revenue quarter for last quarter was much higher than consensus. Remember they did not have their own online business (if I recall correctly) so their wholesale business included that.

    If they really shipped a into the channel and revenue went way up for December quarter, there is a chance that we can see reversal of that this quarter. I don't think the market is expecting that to some degree. Does not mean they miss the numbers, it would just be that the upside surprise in numbers and guidance may not be there as most have gotten accustomed to.

    Too much bullishness in a sector that is just fashion; if too many have Kors bags, it is no longer aspirational. The same thing has already happened to Coach a while ago. It has happened to names like Lululemon in the past 12 months.

    Expansion into new categories might help but maybe the expectations for this quarter are so high that there is no room for upside.

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