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Michael Kors Holdings Limited Message Board

paul_speculator 21 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 21, 2014 8:35 PM Member since: Oct 23, 1999
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  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 21, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    It was the first earnings in a while that did not tank the stock a few days later. It is usually too late if one wants to wait for evidence of the turn with a couple of more earnings reports. For very long term investors, that is a fine strategy...as my friend was arguing with me. Those people can afford to wait. My view is we get to 55 and the trade is over....should hit 50 within weeks, that is what my crystal ball tells me.

    For nimble traders and investors, once you see the turn, you can't wait. Considering we have a free put option with the high short interest and big investors and insiders. There is no reason for Chip Wilson unload his shares into the market after having found a buyer for 1/2 of his holdings. He must be now at ease with the balance of his position, as they say, he can let it ride. My gut says other big funds are making plans to buy it also as they chase good underperforming stocks, especially one that appears to be turning around.

    Long term shorts and there is a huge position of that...as the stock goes up, they will be concerned about giving up profits.....and the real short covering gets started. There is a negative too; tax loss selling can happen if this stock is used to offset gains elsewhere. In my opinion it is a very small negative. At this stock is acting great!

    In general retail stocks have a high short interest; that is bullish too. Most positive momentum can in this sector, at this time, after the big declines in so many retailer. Even if deserved selloffs, the short covering will be contageous. Big underperformers can become big gainers, with a bull market of many years.

    Friday just an options expiration issue. Those out of the money expired calls are no longer there as hedges to the massive short position.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 16, 2014 7:13 PM Flag

    one last thing! Its a yahoo message board! Not a discussion forum between analysts. LOL.

  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 16, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    I meant you are learning about stock valuation from a textbook, probably in a college finance program now. You don't need to give me long logical points; I am not reading them and studying them. I have no obligation to answer anything to you especially with the way you first responded to me; which in turn made act the same way. I dont like wasting time with such people; this should be enough of a waste.

    I am talking shifts in sentiment...SHIFTS. Thats it!

    Its obvious our discussion is going nowhere. So best of luck; you can have the last word. I will ignore you. LOL

  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 16, 2014 5:33 PM Flag

    The second store in London and the first Asian store and the growth of aviva and mens is a huge deal. When people finally see the turnaround it will be too late to buy. The huge short int and private equity is an incredible statement! Thats why both of us seeing moving up a lot.
    Most don't realize that this is really becoming a womens' athletic brand; which was the reason I was buying it a few years ago. Apparel or athletic brand makes a big difference. There are lots of small brands that compete with nike but they are not successful. The bet is that loyalty and growth will be there.

    If someone is fighting about being long yet arguing right on the first message, I don't believe their position or they running some covered call strategy. That is how intuition works. haha

  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 16, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    hahaha. hold on to your short

  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 16, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    correction, I meant pension funds piled into hedge funds in past 7 years because they were afraid of exposure to the stock market (I remember the meltdown...can't blame them for being fearful...or maybe i can)

  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 16, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    chase, I agree with you. The international rollout is in the early stages. The sentiment has shifted this last quarter. I was in this stock at $15...I guess you could say I am coming back into it just like Avent, the private equity firm is. Just think about, a private equity firm, coming into LULU, a company they know very well.

    Huge short interest is the one thing that really tips me in favor of being aggressively long. As for hedge funds, they have underperformed and I bet this is a favorite among many long/short names. As the trend away from hedge funds, by major pensions, that in the past year went all into this category. The pension fund realization is just getting started. That is my view.

    As for frbonen, He is an idiot. I have no time for such people. Go read your textbooks and study the valuation metrics to see how LULU ranks.
    Only if it was that simple, I can program a computer to do that trade. LOL.
    He can stay short LULU. haha

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 16, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    Let the stock enlighten you in a few days and weeks. It is a real sentiment shift.
    You can hold on to your short position and get enlightened that way too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 16, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Wow! Another textbook PE calculator type. Good luck with method in the stock market.

  • If money starts flowing out of hedge funds, the way Calpers has just started, that means long short funds would be covering short positions. It could turn into a big flow.
    That kind of trend will have the best bullish effect on heavily shorted stocks..lulu is heavily shorted.

    Add that LULU made a turn last earnings, fundamentally and more importantly sentiment change, it makes for a very bullish story here.

    btw--I don't buy that bs story on manipulation; so don't bother replying with nonsense.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul_speculator by paul_speculator Sep 14, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    A 180 degrees turn has taken place on lulu stock. The momentum won't stop anytime soon. At the very least 50s will be here with days or weeks....at the very least!!

    Better to recognize it and get long instead of overthinking it. Now the stock does not even need news to get to those levels; momentum is already in place.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • paul_speculator by paul_speculator Sep 9, 2014 7:12 PM Flag

    what is it supposed to be able to do that current ones can't

  • Reply to

    Apple to unveil GoPro killer tomorrow

    by caymanskins Sep 8, 2014 3:36 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 8, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    "I am really hoping that Tim Cook wears the Iphone 6 on his head in a plastic case....that would make my day"

    You got a sense of humor....I give you credit for that.
    That is a good way to be. My suggestion would be to avoid stocks you struggle with; that is my approach.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Apple to unveil GoPro killer tomorrow

    by caymanskins Sep 8, 2014 3:36 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 8, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    I thought you gave up on your short trade on Friday. I guess it is hard to let go.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    GPRO is the mother of all SHORT SQUEEZES

    by eyemurdaddy2 Sep 5, 2014 4:15 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 5, 2014 6:00 PM Flag

    you scale out on the way up...bit by bit

  • Reply to

    GPRO is the mother of all SHORT SQUEEZES

    by eyemurdaddy2 Sep 5, 2014 4:15 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 5, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    I agree this is a short squeeze in progress. Shorts have not given up yet. 17million float; 7 millions short.

    now traders want to play into year end. Market cap too small to handle all the buying.

  • Reply to

    going up too fast

    by billl113 Sep 5, 2014 3:52 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 5, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    just fyi. I took a look at insiders. It does not look like venture capital funds. That makes it stable post lockup expiration. If they really want to sell, they might sell the whole thing. It seems to differ from twtr on that basis.

    Just took a very quick look at prospectus; will check the details to make sure of that on the weekend.

    also look at put/call ration on schaeferesearch research. shorts covering but buying puts means they are not really covering...and still shares cant be found.

    that is an awesome setup in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Some fundamentals for you...

    by caymanskins Sep 5, 2014 2:27 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 5, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    Trading for a long time. Learned one thing. Don't go by any textbook price to earnings etc.. That only works if you are running a large fund with Index funds and bonds.

    One thing that stands out for me is. Is the founder running the company? They can create companies out of bs ideas and take them to hundreds of billions even. I don't like high PE stocks that are run by regular management. High pe should be founders...mark Benioff at Salesforce...high PE for ages!

  • Reply to

    Some fundamentals for you...

    by caymanskins Sep 5, 2014 2:27 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator Sep 5, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    This is nothing against you. You know TSLA got to 90, the same types arguments were made against it..and the shorts bet against it. I see a parallel here. If somehow they create an eco system, this stock will go much higher. Right now it is the bet on the management of this company; he sounds a lot like elon musk, jeff Bezos, larry page etc..

    Their visions play out in reality no matter what any expect thinks. Look at tsla..a car company!

    all the best

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $60-$62 tomorrow...

    by rlyallz Aug 21, 2014 4:42 PM
    paul_speculator paul_speculator Aug 21, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    Is it really a monopoly? Is there a competing product that comes close in market share?
    If it is like a standard the way OFFICE is for Microsoft, it will go a lot higher.

    if it is the standard, it is on its ways to 100 coming years, no matter any expert says.

    Sentiment: Buy

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