Been looking for news but found nothing. based upon volume looks like money mgrs are loading up. When it goes over 5,mutual funds and etfs that have restrictions on buying below 5 will pile in and push this up another leg, i think. I hold 34000 shares at xbar=3.17 so this is all good. Waiting for October FDA and $10/share.
The officers of the company each received restricted stocks (vested bonuses) for meeting the goal of getting at least 4 countries approved in Europe. They did not buy them. There are normally conditions on selling them.
The more important activity was the $40 million worth of A preferred stocks that investors bought showing that there is a belief in this company. It places a strong bottom at $2.91 in my opinion. Also the wording of the transaction ties conversion to approval by the FDA; so there is still life in a USA approval.
Although I was hoping for a big pharma buyout, this is a good thing but may take more time than I'm willing to wait with my 33,000 shares. I'll watch it for awhile longer. Still waiting for the FDA minutes. If you have the time and fortitude you could accumulate on dips below $2.91.
there is a good reference point at $2.91/share since $40 million is now invested at that price. That should provide a bottom. Because they are going it alone, any ramp in price is on hold for 12-18 months. Another catalyst is the FDA official minutes due soon. The meeting was positive but I don't expect any exciting news in the minutes.
Citi: Mgmt did note that it expects sales & marketing to be
roughly $18-20M per year once fully ramped. By our initial estimates, we believe year 1 Iluvien EU revs could be about $10M and year 2 about $50-75M.
Citi is neutral.
I was looking for them to get bought by a big pharma. Now I will start to reduce my shares on any rise and move on. Still have 33K shares.
Well somebody knows something based on Friday and today. But, I doubt very much it is you JP. What and where are you getting rumors...prove it!
At the bell and the after market Friday night,about 2 million shares changed hands at $2.77. There wasn't an uptick. There isn't news. How does that happen without moving the price??? Did they sell new shares in order to get cash to fund marketing? How could they do that without announcing? I haven't got a clue.
Anyone got anything?
Not a very strong case for being short.
MS has a short term tactical trade. (Also have a 12 month price target of $42)
MW has a longer view? Since when do shorts have a long point of view...margin calls are at your doorstep.
the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. time to say something different.
All you need to do is visit China and you will see their OOH ads everywhere; and ads from USA companies too. I've been there. So, you have no clue about their business and you rant like a little child.
Doesn't matter as long as THEIR customers keep advertising. Retention and new customers growing. They can put the advertisements in chalk on the sidewalks for all I care; as long as the customers keep buying ad space.
Shorts should cover now because you may not have another opportunity before margin calls you.
May 29, 2012
Focus Media (FMCN.O)
Research Tactical Idea
We believe the share price will rise relative to the country index over the next 30 days.
This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation much more compelling. We consider Focus
Media undervalued. Notably, 1) Focus Media's 1Q ad sales growth outpaced the levels of peers (up 36% YoY vs. up 7-9%
YoY for Sina and Sohu. 2) It raised its effective ad price by 10% in January and said it may hike its ad price again in key
cities in July. 3) The stock trades at an attractive 11x our 2012e earnings, with a 2% dividend yield and "option" value
offered by its interactive ad service. 4) Focus's current share price implies a rather bearish scenario, with its non-GAAP
earnings growing 0-5% p.a. for the next three years (vs. up 60%+ last year and our base-case earnings forecast of ~25%
p.a. over the next three years).
We estimate that there is about a 60% to 70% or "likely" probability for the scenario.
Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on our assessment of the likelihood of the
Stock Rating: Overweight
Industry View: Attractive
Not sure how it will trade but they will report middle of their revised forecast for the quarter. Ads move to 3rd qtr. Upside expected from London Olympics ads. Weibo expenses rise. Increase in white collar weido-ers.
No buyers!! There is low vol manipulation happening. Example... 2 shares @2.75. Who would sell 2 shares at a time. Crazy action. IT WILL TRADE MUCH HIGHER TODAY!!
Although this is great news on yop of Austria, the news hasn't affected the premarket. But, I'm glad I bought more last week. Now at 33,000 shares. I expect that this will trade higher during the day. I will hold until it doubles sometime later this year.
Increased my position by 10% to 33000 shares. Will continue to hold as this downward manipulation continues. I will keep adding as it goes down. I'm a believer in this drug application.
Top of book now at ~3.50 with gap to over 4.00 available. could close over 4 with another leg in volume.
They already told ALIM no-go; so nothing is going to happen with the FDA concerning a reversal in their opinion. Certainly not tonight. You have no clue. Read the history.
Now, I think that there will be news after ALIM meets with the FDA sometime this quarter but that won't be an approval by the FDA. It nay be some sort of redefinition of what ALIM needs to do concerning a re-submit.
I think that big pharma buyout would have a better chance of funding new trials for the FDA and marketing the product in Europe. I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.
Holding 30000 shares. Paul
Amazing how one little tiny country can boost this stock. Imagine what will happen when they all get on board? One small step at a time and then....boom drop the big news like for instance; a big euro-pharma buyout or news from their meeting with the FDA and we will have a rocket ship.
I'm still long with 30,000 shares.
Only way for them to 'save' their reputation is to sign their audit like they have in the past including the most recent 13F changes.For them to resign would validate incompetence. It's like committing suicide.
They will ask and gets answers to key questions which they will accept. When the audit is approved this will roar back.
Good level to buy every time the shorts push it down.
This looks like institutional selling spiked with stop losses getting taken out. Institutions like FOSUN that had bad quarters may be cashing in their profits at eom. For every share sold there is an enthusiastic buyer. The buyers of course are other institutions wanting to get into FMCN and they see this as their best opportunity.
The push down could continue today. That will be a point to buy more. Not worried about auditor sign-off. They've signed every updated 13F this year and last. No reason to abort now.
The breakdown in price burns my gut but I'm still long and getting longer today. Monday will be a great day.
With news pending on labeling, the BATS top of the order book shows a strong preference to go over $4 soon. There have been some crazy bids and asks recently trading volumes of 38 shares. Lots of 100 share trades too. Little hands trying to game this; but too many shares being held by those of us looking for another double for that action to matter.
Long 30,000 shares.