I always look at FCX; this dog has the biggest capitalization and it missed the big rally this week. GG is way too expensive, and there is no justification for this move. That said, what do I know?
I agree, last time it rallies to 27.75 on Sep 6, 2013, but this time the pull back could be smaller, 23-24 is reasonable; way overdone this time with this crazy week.
X is supposed to earn 1.78 this year, and 2.30 next, but so what? Give this dog a 10X PE: 18 price target this year and 23 in 2015. There are better stocks somewhere else.
..going lower. It is acting just like last year this time, straight down till June. House of pain till October 2014. Fduck you: Zack, and Seeking Alfa..etc.
I was saying that myself this time last year. Then it went from 24 where I bought it to 15 and change. What a house of pain for 9 months; this dog is going to 22-23 level at least.
The best of the breed is not NEM, it is GG; plenty of cash and all in production cost less then 1,000.00 oz. That said, NEM is not that bad; I still think the sell of is that they use 1,300.00 per oz as 2014 gold price is 250 dollars more than ABX and GG use, also NEM all in production cost is too high. Again, having said that, the sell of is way overdone.
" What does a gold miner have to do to go up these days? Sure, it’s understandable that Yamana Gold (AUY) would be falling today thanks to a Raymond James downgrade, but Newmont Mining (NEM)?
Newmont’s fourth-quarter production soared, and earnings could come in 30% to 40% higher than estimates of 39 cents, Sterne Agee’s Michael Dudas, and Satyadeep Jain say. Newmont also plans to spend as little as $1.3 billion this year, also lower than expected.
So what went wrong? Citigroup’s Brian Yu takes a gander:
2014 Guidance Looks Lower on Production and Higher on Costs. [Newmont] is breaking from its historical reporting convention and guiding on a consolidated basis, expecting production of 5.0-5.4 mln ozs at a cash cost of $740-$790/oz compared to our prior estimate at 5.4 mln ozs at $685/oz. The midpoint of guidance would suggest equity gold production of ~4.7 mlm ozs vs 5.1 mlm ozs for 2013. "
This is just BS, way over reaction!
Thanks for the info; short term bad, but long term good. Look at ABX: they do a share offering, and the shares fell like a rock, but eventually it comes back.
" Releasing its quarterly production figures and forecast, Newmont said it will apply a gold price of $1,300 per ounce, down from $1,400 a year ago, for all asset impairment testing as well as in calculating its gold reserves. "
Way too high; ABX uses a 1,100.00 oz bases, and people like that. ABX has been strong after that.
Floodk X, just look at STLD, a much better run company which moves with the steel group. It has broken down below its 200 day moving average. X should follow to test the 200 MA, which is around 20. Also, look at NUE, the steel king, it is resting at the 200MA. There is no other way X is coming towards and should test 20. Get out now!
U.S. Steel will announce its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday, January 28. We expect the company to report no significant growth in profits, if any. This is because while the pricing environment for steel was slightly better in the fourth quarter, we expect lower shipments year-over-year. The results for the first nine months in 2013 showed a 5% drop for flat-rolled steel and a 9% for tubular steel sales by volume, and we expect the company to have fared no better in the fourth quarter on this front.
While the U.S. Steel stock price surged in late December and early January, it has subsequently undergone a significant correction. We think that the rally was driven by a surge of positive sentiment due to lower expected raw material prices, the expected cost reductions from Project Carnegie and expectations of strong economic growth in the U.S. going forward. However, in our view, the structural factors in the industry remain unchanged and challenges remain the same as before. Therefore, there seem to be no material positive triggers on the horizon at the moment.
Even if X earns 27 cents, instead of a loss; so what? It is only mildly positive. The dog ran up from 15.6 to 31, and everything is priced in. I bet we have already seen the high of the year; I believe 22 -23 lows, and 30 high for a while. In other words: dead money, there are better places to be in.