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Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Message Board

pb_harris4 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 7, 2015 8:52 AM Member since: Feb 14, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Interesting Chart Pattern Developing

    by pb_harris4 Mar 27, 2015 4:59 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Apr 7, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    for the record, I play powerball and mega millions each and every drawing. The odds are atrocious but the payoff is huge. therefore, I play. I gave the craps table twenty years ago. Too easy too lose too much.

    As for technicals, it measures what is happening in the market rather in the business. I am a Benjamin Graham guy so I look at the fundamentals and invest accordingly. I have purchased all the TNK shares that I am going to purchase. I am not selling. Therefore, where is the harm in looking at the charts to see where my shares are going in price? I am not gambling. I made my investment a long time ago at much lower prices.

    As for the usufulness of technical analysis, I think it unwise to disregard entirely TA when it can provide a warning signal for selling or slow down signal for buying value when it has broken down. For trading, it is much more prone to treacherous, I agree. But it should not be used for "forecasting" per se. It should be used to give you a sense as to where the pulse of the market is at any given moment in the context of where it has been and it CAN SOMETIMES provide a clue as to whether it might be propitious to buy, sell, hold. I ALSO think it foolish to rely entirely upon TA for trading stocks or for investing.

    I myself do not use TA for such purposes. But that doesn't mean that the TA is not indicating a propitious moment for TNK shares.

    bluefin, live and let live. You don't know everything.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting Chart Pattern Developing

    by pb_harris4 Mar 27, 2015 4:59 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Apr 6, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    Note the volume today compared to previous sessions in the past few weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Apr 5, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    The CEO made the point in the recent conference call on the latest earnings release that Alexco was going to have $10 million in cash once a cash bond was released on a project that was being completed by AEG. That means that means that 38.50 percent of the market capitalization of AXU is accounted for in terms of the firm's cash in bank while it has no bond issuance or bank loan outstanding. I think the firm has something like $4M in silver bullion in storage. It has patents, mining equipment, mill facilities, and land in the Yukon in which silver, iron, zinc, nickel and even a small amount of gold have been located awaiting a mining operation to get it all out of the ground at an affordable price for a reasonable profit in a far better commodities market for PM which we don't have now. But just imagine AXU can be bought for $11M-$12M now. Nobody wants it because the CEO has declared the firm's intention to dilute the shares or sell off valuable parts of the AEG business to resume mining operations again. But that is really besides the point. The value proposition is outstanding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting Chart Pattern Developing

    by pb_harris4 Mar 27, 2015 4:59 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 29, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Kos, it is also called a pennant pattern but you're right about it being a symmetrical triangle and it essentially meaning the same thing in terms of a bullish setup. I think it is actually more accurately a pennant than a flag. A flag is just a pullback in formation with lower highs and lower lows whereas a pennant is more developed in terms of converging lines coming to a point such as a triangle which will eventually snap in one direction or the other once the point is breached. The low volume during the formation is also highly significant. It portends a fairly strong move once it is resolved. And as a continuation pattern it should move strongly to the upside. The only thing is, nothing is 100 percent in TA or in the stock market. But it should work.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    AXU is the best call option on the silver price

    by stinger005b Mar 27, 2015 4:57 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 27, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    That;s exactly how I see it. But it's also exactly how I have been seeing it, suffering with my shares at lower and lower prices and refusing to sell no matter what.

    Prepared to ride AXU down to zero and kiss the money goodbye for ever if that's what it takes. But I think they will keep it together.

    Do need a resumption of the silver bull market in the worst possible way though. I want to be able to breathe normally again when I think of this stock. The price is absurd given the value. But it still feels miserable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Before our very eyes, it looks like a very large flag formation, which, if my understanding of technical analysis does not betray, represents a very emphatic "continuation" pattern on the chart. In other words, in whatever direction the stock had been going it is most likely going to continue in that direction whether up or down. And since TNK has been going upward for quite some time since bottoming a few years ago...

    It also appears that the flag is getting ready to resolve itself quite soon and in a rather big way. If you don't own TNK now, you might be forced to pay up a lot more if you want to own it in the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 26, 2015 12:11 AM Flag

    Kos,

    I would also like to remind you that the stock issuance of 25M shares comes with the cost to he balance sheet to the tune of $750,000 per quarter at the 3 cents per share dividend yield rate. That could have been better offset in my estimation by funds found through financing from the credit line combined with some other fiscal finagling. The price from stock dilution was simply too high for less than $10 a share.

    Whether the SP would have spiked enough to provide a double digit payout amounting to $250M is really in the realm of the counter factual. I cannot say for certain. It's guesswork.

    What I am saying is that I am sure that the 25M share common stock issuance should never have happened for less than $10 a share.

    Now i do realize if the dividend increase I wanted had gone through in a failed attempt to raise the SP, it would mean that TNK would be paying out millions more to shareholders while using debt financing for the entire purchase of the tankers in the recent expansion of the fleet. And the balance sheet would be further weakened.

    But it would have made the shareholders wealthier both in terms of the quarterly payout and in terms of the avoidance of a highly dilutive 25M share issuance. And I would have preferred that outcome to what we have now. And the potential for a $250M payout on a future 25M shares issuance at $10 a share would have at least remained a possibility in the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 25, 2015 7:46 AM Flag

    kos, I would anticipate that TNK might have gotten in the range of $35M to upwards of $50M for the three oldest tankers together in a straight sale.

    I know that would have only covered less than half but what I was talking about was playing for time on the credit line while TNK awaited the delivery of the new tankers once the deal was signed.

    I was thinking that the used tanker market for somebody else wanting to expand their fleet or get into the tanker business for the first time would provide an offer to pay a nice down payment in exchange for TNK taking back some financing at 10 percent per annum and in exchange for the old tankers remaining in the TNK tanker pool.

    It could have been something akin to a lucrative lease agreement that would have paid for the interest on the line of credit while TNK upgraded its own fleet rather handsomely. It would have been a low risk high reward situation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 24, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    Kos, we are both on the same side.

    I have always admired your view point on TNK prospects. I would just like to offer a view that is a bit different from how you state things in this posting.

    You see, I understand that you want a strong balance sheet. I agree with you on that point. In fact, TNK had no debt at all when I bought the shares that I now own. I prefer no debt.

    The thing is, I feel that TNK botched the recent purchase of the tankers by resorting to the issuance of more 25M shares to pay for less than half of the bill.

    This is what I would have done differently.

    I would have arranged for the financing for the lion's share at $135M or whatever it is. That part of the deal was fine. But instead of issuing 20M more shares for the public offering to raise funding at $4.95? or thereabouts so they would have made something like $105M or so.

    Plus what they had to give TK for its buy-in.

    I would have used the line of credit for the funding instead.

    I would have pledged to disposition the two or three oldest tankers through either short lease/sale which would offer much better terms than spot rates. And take a wait and see approach on what the market would give the company for those old tankers.

    Then I would have doubled the dividend. Now hear me out. If TNK doubles the dividend, the stock price soars into the double digits possibly as hight as $12 a share.

    That would have been the most propitious time to offer a stock issuance. At $10 a share, TNK would have raised $250M for selling the same 25M shares. They would have a much stronger balance today.

    So we want the same things for TNK. But we just disagree on how to get there. I just hope TNK is smarter about shares issuance in the future. I still think a dividend increase is a good way to improve the stock price which would enable the receiving of proceeds that would pay down much more of the debt than they could othe

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Who on earth would sell at .86??????

    by rbgambler99 Feb 19, 2015 4:16 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 17, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    Junior Miner ETFs. JM ETFs are the culprits because of redemptions that induce forced selling and the selling has no price sensitivity at all. The selling is brutal and it is ruthless. And the prices can go much lower than anyone would imagine leaving shareholders in panic and anguished pain. I am waiting and watching to see if I might like to purchase a few thousand shares but the price action is too scary now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 11, 2015 6:47 AM Flag

    It's obviously scary at 27 cents a share. But there appeared to be forced selling into the close yesterday that jacked up the volume over a million and a half shares.

    I suspect it was silver efts especially the small cap efts for miners. That would explain the indiscriminate nature of the selling and the total lack of any price sensitivity.

    I don't think there was any reason for the selloff in fundamental terms. Even if the AEG is failing miserably - and we don't know that - it would not explain a 30 percent plunge in the share price. We now have a market cap around $18M which is nearly what AXU is holding in cash and silver bars ($14M) plus some considerable mining equipment that could bring in a few bucks at auction.

    the maket is giving the company away for free. Remember it has no debt.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Blood in the street

    by last2cents Mar 10, 2015 12:03 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 11, 2015 6:15 AM Flag

    clrod,
    there is no clear explanation for what is happening because new patterns have begun forming and old patterns have taken on far greater intensity or velocity in terms of movement.

    Havoc is being created all over the place because the dollar is getting much stronger at a much faster rate than markets are able to manage with any semblance of stability.

    I own reits and utilities. Take a look at O and SO as examples of stocks that have been driven much higher and driven much lower in a couple months. These are 20 percent moves from top to bottom and they are roiling the markets.

    Commodities are getting crushed (except for oil lately which is quite odd because there are all kinds of pressures going against the price of oil).

    Market pricing instability is now taking hold because of the strengthening dollar and the quants who front run and exacerbate price movements.

    There is a combination of two things: massive market manipulation by banks and fund managers backstopped by the central banks and borrowing and leveraging in a price panic within currency markets by the multinational corporations who are trying to salvage their profit margins.

    The increasing pace of the dollar move higher is jarring the markets and nobody knows what to expect next. I suspect that there are a lot of players turning to cash to wait it out and that there is otherwise a lack of liquidity to handle any sudden surge in demand for dollars. Nobody knows how this is going to play out. People are getting very nervous.

    The tankers should be fine but their stock prices will suffer volatility like most things for the time being.

    But you have a few good tankers in your list. You will get paid to wait on TNK and STNG. And FRO will reward you well if you trade it properly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sure glad I didn't buy at $6

    by last2cents Mar 4, 2015 12:14 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 7, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    Poor price per share performance? I recall holding TNK when it was $2.25 a share. That was less than a few years ago. Look at the percentage gain per annum. How many stocks have gone up that much per annum in the past few years? TNK should just keep its price per share performance just the way it has done. I have never seen such cry babies in all my life. TNK has doubled already and it is in the process of doubling again. And again. And again. And again. What else do you want? Sell if you are dissatisfied.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sure glad I didn't buy at $6

    by last2cents Mar 4, 2015 12:14 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 7, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    Will you still be glad when TNK hits $10? hehehehe Or will you be writing that you "sure glad that you did not buy at $11? hehehehehehe

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 6, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    It might help you to keep in mind that the price of AXU is based in USD which is very strong again today. The rally in the dollar will likely continue but it won't last too much longer.

    The strong USD is hurting precious metals and companies that do business in other currencies such AXU which operates in loonies. For a more accurate pricing on Alexco, it makes sense to quote AXR.TO which is Alexco shares in Canadian dollar terms.

    For what it is worth, Alexco is not a very likely BK candidate. You might lose money or you might not. You're under water now. You might be under water 90 percent or more. If you are, you could stay that way for a couple years from now.

    But it is very highly unlikely that your shares will go to zero unless there is accounting irregularities or fraud. There is no word on that score from anyone. Personally, I think Alexco is way undervalued.

    It is trite and a cliche: but it is always darkest before the dawn. That is never more true than when a stock of a company is selling at multi-year lows.

    Personally, I rate a screaming buy today. It is being priced for something like BK or going out of business to be sure. But the balance sheet tells a different story. The numbers don't lie unless the accountants do.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 4, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    TGD is a better situation to be sure. If one is bullish on gold, then TGD is a very compelling value proposition. But if gold or silver go up in 2015, both TGD and AXU will go higher. That's the thing about mining stocks. They depend upon the price of the commodity. AXU could be doing much better if they would just focus more on the environmental business. AXU has value that needs unlocking. The CEO is the main problem. That means that AXU is going to sell something. But what it will do with the proceeds is what bothers the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why Spot Rates Could Skyrocket

    by pb_harris4 Feb 28, 2015 11:16 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 3, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    Thanks, kos. I don't think folks quite see what is happening now. The stars aligned in our favor or perhaps I should say that the stars are aligning in our favor.

    The reason why the price of oil is not dropping more than it has already is actually because the sellers of oil are largely opting to put oil into storage in large quantities, thus filling up the storage facilities on land in the USA.

    They are thinking that prices will bounce back up next year so why sell now? The problem is, there is simply not enough storage capacity on land to handle all the excess oil that is still being produced from now until even the next three months from now. Something is going to give out.

    The owners of the excess oil will soon enough seek refuge in whatever floating storage remains available because the only alternative is to dump the oil into the market precipitating plunging prices that could force the price of oil into the $30s if not also the $20s and cause devastating losses when profits instead are awaiting at some future point in time if only the oil can sit somewhere for awhile.

    In which case, it will make speculators, financiers and producers alike desperate to rent out oil tankers for floating storage to save themselves from enormous losses. The math works in the favor of the oil transport companies. Lower prices for oil are coming. Higher spot rates for oil tankers are also coming. Too much oil and no place for it.

    This is playing out right now. Storage facilities are filling up and prices for oil are remaining relatively stable. But that is about to change come April or May. We should see huge spikes in spot rates. It should accompany vastly higher share prices for TNK.

    I also like STNG as an investment. For a trade with some significant risk I like FRO. But I only have a long position in TNK. I won't put too much money into any one sector or industry. But I wouldn't mind putting some mad money into STNG and FRO right here and now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 2, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    The danger for AXU shareholders is far less in terms of having it go to zero or bankruptcy than it is going to, say, ten cents a share or five cents a share before getting sold for something like 15 cents or 20 cents a share.

    AXU has no bank debt or bond issuance to pay off. They have bills and salaries to pay. They have contractual obligations. But those things are manageable when you have had $10M in the back recently and another $5M in silver bar in storage.

    Think of the implications of a reverse stock split. The money it will take to get the mining operation back open and viable will cost much more than AXU has or more than AXU is worth.

    The problem is that AXU has a "burn rate" CEO who thinks he's a miner and nothing else or a miner-come-hell-or-high-water. It's a mine or bust strategy. The CEO is already thinking about how he can spend the money in the bank on yet more exploration. They are talking about selling a portion of the environmental business to fund the executive salaries and the amendment to the silver stream deal with SLW.

    The CEO thinks only in terms of spend first and ask questions later. It amount to corporate suicide. But because the suicide is in slow motion I am thinking that somebody will save the company before it is too late.

    There is huge value in Alexco.

    Therefore the upside is many times more than the present market capitalization of $30M in USD terms. Something like five or even ten times. So, yes, I am rolling the dice as it were.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why Spot Rates Could Skyrocket

    by pb_harris4 Feb 28, 2015 11:16 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 1, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    You are the one, sir, whose credibility is compromised. Let us at least agree to see what happens before we address one another further.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why Spot Rates Could Skyrocket

    by pb_harris4 Feb 28, 2015 11:16 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Feb 28, 2015 11:20 PM Flag

    Remember what Jeff Gundlach says about the most powerful impetus of all among traders and investors, even more powerful than fear and greed: NEED. When market players need to do something in the markets because there is no other way it provides an enormous opportunity to profit in a huge way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

GNK
1.700.00(0.00%)Apr 21 4:07 PMEDT