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Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Message Board

pb_harris4 21 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 24 minutes ago Member since: Feb 14, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Bottom Call

    by pb_harris4 6 hours ago
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 1 hour 24 minutes ago Flag

    What gets us there? Uhhh, how about the market pricing TNK at a sensible valuation? Uhhh, how about a continuation of this recent $64M in quarterly cashflow? Uhhh, how about also a continuation of paying down $50M in debt quarterly? Uhhh, I don't know, how about perhaps smart investors waking up to a market cap of a measly $400M on a firm undervaluing by at least 75 percent a tanker company that has a fleet of tankers worth way more than $2B at foresail prices together with a vibrant growing brokerage fee/commission based business not counting the ownership interest in TIL and other ventures? Oh I don't know what do you think get us there? Better question might be what in the world might hold TNK back from $5 a share because for the life of me I cannot tell.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bottom Call

    by pb_harris4 6 hours ago
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 6 hours ago Flag

    It's what makes a market. Let 'em sell. The end of the day buying should be interesting.

    Guys like us are always a bit in the dark compared to the big money who knows who is in trouble and who MUST SELL for redemptions or margin calls.

    But value is still value. And TNK is DEEP VALUE high discounted with a margin of safety even though market will let the stock drop to absurd levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I think TNK has bottomed here though more data and information needs to come before it is confirmed

    I am looking for an inside outside day on heavy volume which means that we traverse yesterday's high after now having already broken down well below yesterday's low this morning on heavy volume suggesting capitulation selling early before the buyers came into the arena aggressively to take TNK higher again.

    Once I saw the shift in momentum at such a hugely discounted value proposition in TNK shares in the low $3s, I decided to act. I bought 10,000 shares at $3.22. I am planning to wait until the TNK share price climbs to above $3.90 before I shop for selling out Strike $5 call options for at least 30 cents. I will probably continue to effort to sell call options every six months until the market takes me out of TNK at $5 a share and then move on.

    This is just a trade. I already own enough TNK shares for a long term investment.

    And I didn't want to add any more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 8 hours ago Flag

    Trust me on one thing I have learned in my decades of experience both trading and investing in the stock market: the silence is BULLISH. Nobody talks out loud on either an common stock, a sector or the index when the discounting is so attractive. Why would they? They're too busy buying! The silence on TNK is golden! Buy now! Buy here! Buy lower! And don't worry about anything else including storage. It's the overall business the matters.

    Remember, silence means huge discounted value.

    Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 8 hours ago Flag

    As a shareholder, I feel personally much encouraged that TNK management took the step of paying off $50M of its $1B debt, an action taken for the quarter which is pretty much as aggressive as I would want to see. If TNK can keep paying down debt on a $200M per annum basis then the firm will soon enough lock into a fortress balance sheet that will enable the sp to ascend easily into the double digits, keying management toward forging a multi billion dollar business when the spot rates normalize. TNK could be debt free in little more than five years, meaning the tanker company will be unstoppable. Together with TNK's overwhelming cashflow, the money making machine will ultimate force the market to more appropriately value its business.

    Remember what Benjamin Graham once wrote: The stock market is a voting machine in the immediate term but a weighing machine in the long term. Right now, TNK is quite unpopular. Ultimately, it will be worth its tanker tonnage in gold!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Buy TNK here and the balance of probabilities are so much in your favor that you won't likely be disappointed with the result and you might be very pleased over the next couple years. The downside is limited. The debt is highly manageable. The cashflow is strong. The dividend is very good in our current low yield environment. If you buy at $3.35 you stand a good chance of picking up some extra cash to the tune of $.30 to $.35 which is very close to ten percent of the principal simply by selling strike $5 calls with expiry out later this year

    Upside depends most on a fairly sure bet that global demand for crude oil will keep increasing. Massive pipelines are being planned but they are mostly being set up for natural gas. Years away. TNK is in a great position to take advantage of any surge in spot rates. Double digit sp is not out of the question this time next year.

    The long and the short is that TNK is NOT a value trap. It's a good company that requires a lot of patience.

    It's a value stock that pays you plenty to wait for the gravy train to arrive.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 by pb_harris4 Apr 28, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Did anybody get one from Enterprise Product Partners?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 by pb_harris4 Apr 8, 2016 11:36 AM Flag

    Don't short oil!!!! You're likely to get your head ripped off!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    looking to get in BUT

    by castee18 Mar 28, 2016 3:12 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 29, 2016 4:12 PM Flag

    Kos, can tell me why these clowns care so much? Are they really short TNK with the shorting costs of having to pay out the dividend or the high premium on puts?

    TNK is a bargain here and now. I think it's the TK controls TNK canard again over and over. It's like the scoffers think that TK can dump its debt on TNK any time it wants. No chance. Won't happen.

    TNK has LESS than a DOLLAR DOWNSIDE AT THE MOST and it has $40 UPSIDE over the next five to ten years.

    What's the problem with these jokers? Notice how they attack me personally?

    And how do you like those AXU shares now? Do I know what I'm talking about or what? Keep holding AXU and TNK, my friend. They will make you wealthy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Weak Hands

    by pb_harris4 Mar 23, 2016 5:30 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 27, 2016 7:41 PM Flag

    If it helps at all, I would say that TNK share price breaking below $3.00 is highly unlikely but even if it does break into the $2 handle again it is very very unlikely that it would be either very deep below $3.00 or last long at all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Weak Hands

    by pb_harris4 Mar 23, 2016 5:30 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 26, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    poon, one other point regardingTA which I take with a grain of salt is that we did not have an inside outside pattern Wednesday and Thursday which would have meant that the high on Thursday would've climbed higher than the high on Wednesday. And as I say there would have likely been more volume. We could see he low retested which would be fine. I would buy into the falling price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Weak Hands

    by pb_harris4 Mar 23, 2016 5:30 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 26, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    I agree the reversal looks somewhat bullish but I do wish there had been greater volume. But the selloff had strong volume signaling a bit of capitulation. I must say that I am not much of a fan of TA being a value investor who will sometimes buy buy buy shares into the abyss of the depths of despair. TNK was just one example back when it traded into the $2 handle. I consider TNK a better than a 50 50 probability of being on its what back up but I would not be surprised if the lows are retested. If we do I will be looking to buy TNK shares for a trade.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Weak Hands

    by pb_harris4 Mar 23, 2016 5:30 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 24, 2016 1:23 PM Flag

    Not only do I feel more certain now more than yesterday that I am right but the action today looks very much like the end of the selling and the beginning of the buying meaning that the bottom is now set in placed. I did not act on my view. But if things go worse over the next week or two or three, I might very well purchase a large position for a trade to go with my buy and hold long term position. Hold TNK is my advice. Hold TNK shares I say.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 by pb_harris4 Mar 23, 2016 5:30 PM Flag

    Three and a half million shares sold today at the newly made yearly lows. Big spike in volume.

    "Just get me out!"

    Selling at losses because the weak hands simply cannot take the pain.

    I say this price level at the close today at $3.51 a share represents a buying opportunity.

    Time will prove me right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Perhaps You Should Sell TNK

    by pb_harris4 Mar 17, 2016 12:28 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 17, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    TK has serious problems with an untenable level of debt. If you think TK's troubles are TNK's problem then you really should consider selling.

    I have received information that the number of oil tankers coming online in the next two years has increased significantly from orders backlog during the fourth quarter last year.

    This is why I would like TNK to eliminate its debt as much as possible. TK cannot do much about its debt problem but TNK can do a lot about its debt considering the massive cashflow it has now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • To my detractors,
    I would say that IF you think, if you honestly believe, that TNK is absolutely and categorically controlled by TK so much so that the $8B in debt that TK holds is also TNK's legal obligation then I strongly suggest that you SELL TNK shares immediately!

    TNK has a committee set up to ward off such "conflicts of interest" and I believe that this committee is a serious bulwark against TK acting against the interests of TNK shareholders. Therefore, I consider TNK a strong buy. But if you disagree,then be my guest and SELL! And stay the hell off the board and meanwhile don't let the door hit you on the #$%$ on your way out!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Be Glad I'm Not TNK CEO

    by pb_harris4 Mar 12, 2016 7:01 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 13, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    You sound so much like a troll which if you are then you are also a liar for claiming to own TNK at $4 plus. Since you seem more intent on shedding heat rather than light and insulting me personally with ad hominem attacks (I know somehow you[re not educated enough to know what I'm talking about), you might reflect on the fact that my cost basis is considerably below your own. I've been in the stock longer than you and I have been visiting this board for years. You're what you sound like. A troll.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Be Glad I'm Not TNK CEO

    by pb_harris4 Mar 12, 2016 7:01 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 13, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    Clarksons pegs the spot rates for Suezmax tankers at between $25K-$30K per diem. It's not the $50K plus last year but it neither below $10K from several years ago. I would certainly look to add to the fleet on contract rates after the spot rates recover to above $45K. But I have been calling for increasing the portion of the fleet on contract rates since last year.

    "Mother company" doesn't get to decide to gut the "daughter?" company simply because it needs the money. Different companies, different BODs, differing corporate policies. Sorry you didn't get the memo. Spot rates will recover substantially later this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Be Glad I'm Not TNK CEO

    by pb_harris4 Mar 12, 2016 7:01 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 13, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    How much of a valuation (market capitalization) would the market grant TNK shares if the firm had no debt at all while taking into its coffers $200M a year? Less than $2B? I doubt it. Look what it is now. My statement above references a five year plan to eliminate debt and establish a no debt policy. My plan B would be to start selling assets and raising funds through equity offerings to get rid of all debt if the company treasury failed to surpass the total debt figure in five years. A tanker company should have no debt in my opinion. By the way, your assumption about the TNK debt is not entirely accurate. If I am not mistaken, TNK management does quite well in keeping debt financing expenses down to below four percent per annum with lending agreements that place the interest rate at not much more than libor and with hedging activities that ward off the threat of a sudden increase in the rates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Be Glad I'm Not TNK CEO

    by pb_harris4 Mar 12, 2016 7:01 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Mar 13, 2016 2:20 PM Flag

    Hope you're right about spot rates, Kos. I actually think that probably you are right about spot rates staying up for years though I don't agree with your view on the price of oil which I think is going higher not lower perhaps settling in between $50 to $75 a barrel by the end of the year and entering once again triple digit territory by 2018.

    Contango is a good reason for spot rates to elevate due to storage needs as your analysis indicates so I agree with the reasoning you are using just not your premise of lower oil prices on a sustained basis. What you're suggesting could happen briefly over the summer in my estimation but I don't anticipate it lasting very long. .

    Yet I should reiterate my strong conviction that future cashflows should be locked in with contract rates for the majority of the fleet and if spot rates actually improve significantly as your comments suggest during a contango circumstance then increasing in-charter business would be my preferred way of capturing the upside profitability. I want more certainty than what is likely going to happen to spot rates. rates. .

    It should go without saying that forecasting market behavior in terms of tanker spot rates and the price of oil is rather perilous if you're going to wage money. Please take note that I am also talking my book since I have recently taken a huge position in CRC and doubled down on FCX. I took substantial profits on CHK preferred stock that I bought recently. I have been staggered by the short squeeze on the price of oil and some of the equities in the oil sector. I bought CRC shares at 32 cents and then sold calls at a strike $1.50 and I am now in danger of losing the shares to my shock and dismay since I was hoping to keep the shares while making some additional profit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

GNK
0.4899-0.0101(-2.02%)May 24 4:02 PMEDT