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IAMGOLD Corp. Message Board

pb_harris4 27 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Feb 14, 2012
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  • Reply to

    TNK Breakout?

    by pb_harris4 Oct 5, 2015 4:06 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 12 hours ago Flag

    Did you guys notice the item where TNK management indicated that they took in $37.3M in quarter ending June 30 from the sale of common stock derived from its "continuing program"?

    I always knew that TNK was a public company that financed its expansion from the issuance of shares until the same capital markets were temporarily closed several years ago.

    I think it means two things: the $1B in debt will be retired effectively in a few years as long as the spot market holds up for a couple more years.

    They are taking in $50M plus now in quarterly earnings together with the $37M in ongoing share issuance proceeds.

    It also means perhaps that the dividend increases we anticipate are likely going to be deferred quite a bit longer since TNK is paying many more $$$ in dividends already to an ever widening shareholder base albeit at the same 3 cents a share per quarter.

    I do like a strong balance sheet even if I have to forego an increase in my quarterly dividend payout.

    The one thing that makes me most happy about being a TNK shareholder is the net cumulative result of all the expansion deals that management has been making that are accretive to earnings.. TNK is now making a hell of a lot more money. TNK is raking in the $$$ and that is what is key.

    Bringing in $200M plus in annual earnings is going to knock the snot out of the debt in short order and ultimately stand us in good stead as shareholders with a stock of a firm that has a low multiple market capitalization that is fantastic in terms of the value proposition in the eyes of institutional investors.

    The tanker market should hold up with advantageous spot rates for the foreseeable future. Hopefully.

    I laugh now when I recall how msnapp used to heckle me and taunt me with grim predictions that TNK would go bankrupt. Are my pompoms still showing, msnapp?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 by pb_harris4 Oct 5, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    I am liking the volume of shares traded today. I am also liking the market action generally in both equities and commodities today. It "feels" like a bull is reasserting itself.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    new purchase

    by marveque Sep 12, 2015 5:58 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Sep 26, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    Two things I focus on: The debt per each of the 12 Suezmax tankers is merely $33.33M and the purchase is going to be accretive to earnings as well as provide for an increase of the "dividend capacity" despite the additional issuance in shares taken by an investor group, TK itself, and the sellers of the 12 tankers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Disgruntled Shareholder

    by pb_harris4 Sep 7, 2015 3:07 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Sep 12, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    you are right. Paul Boynton's base pay is a mere $431,250 in cash, a perfectly reasonable amount.

    The CEO was awarded in 2014 some $2,473,974 worth of RYAM stock which is obviously worth a lot less now. I estimate that it amounts to less than 100,000 shares. Boynton has it seems lost a couple million dollars in the avalanche of the RYAM cascading stock price. That is as it should be.

    He also has been awarded $650,401 in stock options that probably won't vest unless the stock makes a remarkable recovery.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The situation is now in the hands of the BOD. It's up to them to do their job! If I were on the BOD, I would lobby hard to call Mr. Paul Boynton on the carpet. Either the erstwhile CEO turns things around and stop digging such a deep hole for RYAM by the end of the year or else he goes. In the meantime, Boynton should take a major pay cut for lack of quality management performance. Why is Boynton making nearly $3.5M a year???

    I am holding until the stock goes to zero. But I am totally disgusted with management performance.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    fro doing good

    by greenirishblackirish Aug 26, 2015 10:35 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 30, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    what makes you think a divy is coming? I am even on my fro shares but way under water on my calls. i did think it interesting that fro management indicated that they have received interest in the availability of tankers for storage by speculators in the oil market. that could be yet another game changer. the spike in oil last week was a hmm dinger, was it not? a huge move from out of nowhere. looks like traders and speculators are in the game now on the oil futures market. no doubt about it. Long TNK, Long FRO, Long FRO calls (Jan).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 20, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    when an issue gets into the hands of the lawyers it is too late to make it right and avoid a lot of pain and loss. Contracts are there to back up handshakes and mutual understanding and good faith. The contract only applies when somebody calls the lawyer. And that happens when somebody gets either #$%$ off or thinks that there is no better way to resolve things.

    What makes me most sure that it is personal rather than business is that it applies to future years 2016-2018 which would have otherwise afforded all the time in the world to sort things out before calling in the lawyers. Why do this now? It must have been personal. I will say that the damage to RAYM is greater. The firm has $900M in debt and a CEO who draws nearly $4M in salary. It's one mistake after another. Time for a change.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    what a POS sector

    by nadsmis Aug 20, 2015 12:49 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 20, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    kos, TNK shareholders are getting rid of the weak hands down at this level. The weak hands sell here at prices lower while the strong hands hold and buy for the next leg higher. Same old story.

    None so blind as those who refuse to see what is right in front of them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 20, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    It is worth noting that Boynton was sandbagged by the lawsuit. What does that tell you? Things between the execs have deteriorated to such an extent presently that they are not even talking? Boynton did not even see the lawsuit coming? That's Boynton fault. Eastman is the client. Eastman is the customer. They should never feel that they need to go so far.

    Compromise with Eastman. Make a bit less money. Keep your customer happy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 20, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    As a RAYM shareholder, I cannot help thinking that this dispute is more about personality conflict than anything else. And the most likely culprit in my mind is Paul Boynton. He comes across as arrogant. Boynton is way overpaid. He has numerous errors in judgement. The firm is mired in lawsuits now because it over inflated the value of assets at the firm before the spinoff. He has too much power. And he treats the firm as his own private fiefdom. It should never have come to this. This smells like payback from Eastman execs to Boynton. Now, it is a huge mess. I think Boynton needs to be fired.

    That might resolve the dispute and a lot of other problems troubling RYAM.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Double oil transport

    by adowns284 Aug 16, 2015 1:35 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 16, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Up until very recently, I have personally opposed lifting the crude oil export ban in the United States. Now I have changed my mind. I think it is outmoded policy. It makes no sense to keep it in place while there is a looming disaster approaching within the U.S. oil industry that will mean the loss of jobs and business and will mean that billions of dollars will be wiped out if nothing changes. Let's try to export as much crude oil out of the United States as possible if might mean that those jobs, businesses and investment dollars can be saved.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    mexican oil

    by marveque Aug 14, 2015 2:46 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 16, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    On second consideration, I'm not certain that TNK would be allowed under the law and current policy to transport U.S. crude oil to Mexico. TNK is not allowed to transport U.S. crude oil along the coastal seas of the United States for U.S. to U..S. oil transport. Crude oil transport from the United States to Canada has already been allowed but I don't think TNK tankers are able to get involved. There are restrictions upon the tankers that can participate as well as a ban on U.S. crude export even with the exceptions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    mexican oil

    by marveque Aug 14, 2015 2:46 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 16, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    TNK has tankers that travel into, out of, and through the Gulf of Mexico but they don't hit Mexico itself for oil transport though that could easily change now. I do know that lifting the U.S. ban on domestic export of U.S. crude oil is something that TNK management have been anticipating in hopes of expanding their business.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by theeckman1 Aug 13, 2015 1:33 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 13, 2015 8:45 PM Flag

    This is a proxy using TNK shorted shares as a way of betting against China, Asia and the Global growth picture. If things blow up utterly, TNK shares will fall precipitously perhaps as far down as $4 but that is a long shot. Betting on disasters is a low probability proposition. Betting against TNK is a bad bet. Way undervalued. Way way too much upside. And the shorts must pay the dividend that is likely to increase by early next year. What away to make money. Let the shorts come. It will just give us more fuel for the upside breakout. TNK is valued as if things will not go well in any event already. What happens if things turn out good? Will keep trading at four times earnings forever?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TNK minus 7%

    by ceejayheap Aug 12, 2015 11:06 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 12, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    Anybody not in yet but thinking of buying TNK can take the level right here to begin an entry position. It's a perfectly safe price to buy TNK. China has everybody a little rattled because currency moves have an impact on Asia. For TNK, which get paid in $$$ and whose cargo is sold in $$$ it means very little. The only caveat is whether there is a global slowdown being forecasted by the price of oil. I don't think so. Oil cheap but demand is strong. Thailand and Japan with do a lot of business in China will make less money on their exports and will pay more to buy oil. But it makes little or no difference to TNK.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SPT Inc Acquisition

    by pb_harris4 Aug 10, 2015 4:14 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 10, 2015 8:05 PM Flag

    Thanks for the $$$ info, tc on the acquisition. cl I read that the spot rates were down for VLCC tankers somewhere as low as $41K per diem and I think $38K for suezmax tankers. Hopefully the spot rates will pick up by the timeTNK takes delivery of its 12 modern suezmax tankers. Timing is everything, isn't it?

    Just hope that the high seas are not about to be inundated with new tankers any time soon. That we don't need. When it is everybody and their brother ordering up tankers to go into business, it gets very complicated in the spot rate market.

    I am no cheerleader for TNK shares. I worry too much about the downside to be called a "cheerleader" by some like nappy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SPT Inc Acquisition

    by pb_harris4 Aug 10, 2015 4:14 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 10, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    kos, the pennant pattern is very bullish. I agree 100 percent. I think this flag foreshadows the biggest breakout so far. We will see. I could see a major gap higher followed by a breakout through the eight handle landing it somewhere in the middle of a nine handle.

    The charter contracts you cite are very useful especially at such lucrative rates because they provide a really powerful hedge to the fleet on the spot rates over the next couple years. Everything is working in favor of the tanker business though. China specifically and Asia generally have strong demand for both crude and product so it's not about the stockpiling only.

    The low price of crude is going to provide huge cost savings for years to come.

    Another positive for TNK is the news that the Congress is considering lifting the ban on exporting crude oil from the United States. That could be a huge development in conferring business TNK's way. That additional market for tankers is going to raise the spot rates too since it allows for more business for the same number of tankers. I am looking for spot rates to spike on the announcement.

    TIL could be a big boast for TNK if TIL issues a dividend. I had thought the sale of TIL would be the only way TNK could reap the reward of TIL's performance. Last I heard, TIL was trading over 60 percent higher in terms of its own share price on the European stock market. The TK CEO was thinking out loud a couple months ago about selling TIL outright in a couple years to pay down debt.

    Thanks, blue. I thought Mackay had expertise in product tanker market. Coming from PSX, it makes sense that he would have it in ship to ship transfer business too which is a field I am not much familiar. I just wish I could bit more color in terms of the numbers. How big is the business? Revenues? kos is probably right that it makes a nice compliment to the brokerage business and it probably adds something.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 by pb_harris4 Aug 10, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    Can somebody explain TNK's $45.5M purchase of a ship to ship transfer business? What are the advantages and benefits to TNK in owning SPT Inc? Is it a question of saving time and money between offloading and the next reloading of oil and product cargo?

    Doesn't the business only benefit the aframax fleet because of its smaller size?

    I don't quite understand the usefulness of this business in the TNK business model.

    At $45.5M it a significant investment for a company like TNK.

    What does it mean for the bottom line?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by mk4872987 Aug 5, 2015 11:13 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 10, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    I would think about the risk profile with respect to the debt.

    This is how I think of TNK's new debt combined with the old.

    First of all, TNK had zero debt when purchased my TNK shares. It was already in a downturn. And I liked the zero debt on the TNK balance sheet.

    Secondly, the $400M in new debt is for 12 new suezmax tankers that comes to $33.333M per tanker. Think about what the tankers can earn in the spot market both now and in a downturn.

    Thirdly, TNK is looking to earn $225M to $250M a year in the present spot market climate that should go forward for the next couple years at least as you point out. The TNK market cap is also around a Billion $. That means that TNK is trading at a multiple of nearly FOUR in terms of price earning ratio. TNK's debt servicing is now about $40M a year in terms of interest payout.

    And so TNK is carrying debt FOUR times the annual EARNINGS. TNK can well afford to pay down the debt aggressively. The tanker business is a tough business in a downturn no question. But the VALUE proposition in TNK has become quite amazing at this point. Time will tell whether I am right or wrong.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 5, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    it's a reasonable balance between stock issuance and additional debt. The deal is such a bargain at such a propitious time. It's good for us. I also like the new shares are going to strong hands. There should be no selling in the new stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

1.92+0.11(+6.08%)Oct 6 4:01 PMEDT