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Teekay Tankers Ltd. Message Board

pb_harris4 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 13, 2014 1:54 PM Member since: Feb 14, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Dirty Tanker Rates are still moving north

    by lakers_fan919 Jul 10, 2014 11:50 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jul 13, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    msnapp,

    surely you are better than that pathetic commentary. That is really beneath you to hurl such a below the belt diatribe. And it is egregiously unfair and unjust. Is your ego really so fragile that you must engage in such a personal attack upon somebody on this board simply because he disagrees with you? We trade and we invest what we see the best we can. The world is not our responsibility.

    Peace, love and compassion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dirty Tanker Rates are still moving north

    by lakers_fan919 Jul 10, 2014 11:50 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jul 13, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    Somebody is mistaken yet again. quant has my respect and he really went up in my estimation when he offered up the astute observation that the "expert" had "gone batty" but that was before the expert really started going way over the edge with pontifications regarding TNK's bankruptcy. The "downturn" predicted by the "expert" has failed to materialize too. Any other brilliant observations from the "expert"??

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dirty Tanker Rates are still moving north

    by lakers_fan919 Jul 10, 2014 11:50 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jul 11, 2014 7:53 PM Flag

    The only thing "flimsy" about TNK is the "analysis" of the company by a so-called "expert" that emerges to amuse the TNK longs who have been making a fortune holding shares from $2.50 to $4.00 on this tanker. TNK itself as a company and as a stock is as solid as Gibralter. When the fundamentals of a firm improve while the market fails (temporarily) to "risk capital" that is called a actionable disconnect and a bullish indicator for which smart investors take as a signal to purchase shares aggressively. In other words, the outlook for TNK shares is superb. My take? Take the "expert" for it amusement but know he has no credibility at least where TNK is concerned or the tanker market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dirty Tanker Rates are still moving north

    by lakers_fan919 Jul 10, 2014 11:50 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jul 11, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    I wonder how long TNK can stave off bankruptcy with Suezmax rates so strong! Perhaps "the expert" could enlighten us? How is it that TNK shares seem to be hovering tenaciously around the $4 level when a recent posting by the "expert" indicated that it was on its way back to $2.50???

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Advice on AXU

    by pb_harris4 Jun 24, 2014 3:56 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jun 30, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    We are nearing very close to a Fib-like 50 percent retracement of the move off the recent bottom that got as low as 92 cents a share (as I recall), a successful retest of the first bottom established in June 2013, up to the high of $1.42 in recent days. We might witness something as low as $1.18 before we resume the next leg of the uptrend well above the $1.42 a share level of broken resistance.

    My point is: this week would very likely provide a superb entry point for buying AXU shares if you missed the move below a dollar that we will not see again or if you are like myself and would simply like to add shares to a significant holding in AXU shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Strong close today

    by t_baroi Jun 24, 2014 4:52 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jun 25, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    t_, I would say that $1.85 is a bit on the low side if we get $23 silver.

    We did better than that last time silver hit $23 then $24 last summer and we didn't have the new arrangement with SLW or the newly announced discoveries or the progress in the environmental business. I would look for $2.15 or thereabouts for AXU. This stock is so undervalued right now it is ridiculous. And it is off the radar. Nobody sees it yet. Fasten your seatbelts, sports fans. It's about to be an interesting ride upwards.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 by pb_harris4 Jun 24, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    Just buy the dips. And then don't sell.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Quant and Pb...

    by kosmiccharly Jun 22, 2014 4:20 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jun 24, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    I concur completely with quant. Besides the market agrees with us. Enjoy your vacations, kos, quant.

    Enjoy the performance of our TNK shares going higher and higher. Everything we have been saying has been dead right. Who cares about the nonsense of naysayers who don't know what they're talking about? TNK is a growth vehicle now for big time players in the tanker transport market and the world needs tankers for the coming weeks, months, years, decades. Enough said.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    6 million after hours

    by t_baroi Jun 20, 2014 6:43 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jun 21, 2014 7:27 AM Flag

    I see three possibilities for the surge in volume: first, it could have been major stakes being traded between fund managers in the so-called "dark pool" market which is closed off to the public. Such venues allow for corrupt dealings involving rather large in size trades usually by sellers handling other people's money and buyer's handling their own money and getting a large stake without driving up the stock price for a cash settlement under the table. It's wrong and ought to be outlawed; second, it is a "bought deal" which means that AXU would have sold shares from a new issuance of common stock to somebody and we should get an announcement next week (I doubt this possibility unless an SEC filing had already been made by AXU that disclosed that the BOD had approved the common stock available to be sold or used for employee incentives program and I don't recall anything); and third, it is a misprint. I am hoping that it is a misprint. It's unfair for somebody to be able to buy so much of the stock at such a low price in a dark pool or in a bought deal. It's not in our interests as shareholders. If somebody with lots of money wants to own that many AXU shares then let them get the shares in the market by hitting the ask or waiting for the bid to fill like the rest of us.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any thoughts on the new SLW deal? (not spam)

    by clamdigger_97 Jun 18, 2014 1:37 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jun 20, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    If you recall the last conference call, ceo and upper management were talking seriously about finding ways to significantly lower the mining costs by reorganizing the labor force and by possibly introducing new technology when they go back into production, There was a suggestion that they were not getting nearly as good a deal from the subcontractor miners they had been using as they should have gotten. They were talking about perhaps hiring directly next time out. They talked about the challenges and how hard it is to get guys who are willing to live in the yukon where it isbitterly cold at night and run equipment and mine minerals all day. They talked about making the life there more bearable for the labor force when they go back to work.

    But AXU has had over a year to do three things really important: find where the minerals are located by drilling where their geologist indicate, expand their environmental business, and figure out how to organize a labor force that will mine more inexpensively.. If silver price goes up then we will know in spring of 2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Technical Divergence 101...

    by kosmiccharly Jun 5, 2014 3:22 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jun 20, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    Well I sure am glad we have someone on this board who understands "divergences" including which ones are actually bullish and which ones are bearish UNLIKE SOME WHO have come on this board as if they are an expert on technical analysis of the spot market rates for tankers and ALSO an expert of experts on TNK as a tanker company predicting that it is going TO GO BANKRUPT for crying out loud.

    It's just nice somebody on the board knows something about divergences.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any thoughts on the new SLW deal? (not spam)

    by clamdigger_97 Jun 18, 2014 1:37 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jun 19, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    in my estimation, the SLW amendment is a very good deal for AXU though not a great deal. SLW drives a hard bargain no matter what. But a couple years ago AXU would have gleefully jumped at such an opportunity and it is a very propitious move now if the price of silver begins to rise again.

    I don't believe that the $20M price tag means that AXU will issue shares for the entire amount. I think they are planning on paying out $5M in cash which they have not only on the balance sheet in cash but also in silver bar inventory. What's key is that SLW is going to put up $5M for an equity stake once AXU has established an equity issuance for the initial $10M. The fact that the deal has until the end of the year makes it especially advantageous to AXU since they can benefit from a rising stock price which is trading at less than 50 percent what it should be even under present circumstances. The stock dilution won't be so painful if the stock rises back above $2.50 a share where it belongs. That would amount to roughly 6M shares which would on represent less than a 10 percent dilution from the outstanding shares presently. Hardly a big deal for all that AXU would get in return over the next ten years especially with leveraging the production of silver and scaling the mining operations to increase output above 8M to 10M ounces of silver not to mention the gold it has discovered together with the nickel it found. And let's not forget the zinc and ore.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Crude up on MidEast violence

    by jrfillion Jun 12, 2014 9:01 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jun 13, 2014 7:10 AM Flag

    Higher prices in crude oil without any disruption to supplies from Iraq or anywhere else is probably not going to make much of a difference. The spiking price in crude oil is based much more now on psychology rather supply and demand dynamics.

    Somebody could decide to increase inventories based upon fear but that still remains to be seen for now. However, it's the disruption to Iraqi crude oil supplies presently that would move prices in both crude much more significantly and therefore for spot rates for oil transport eventually.

    I would say that $150 for crude oil might get things moving along for spot rates one way or the other. Some analysts are saying that is not out of the question.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It is not unlikely that Peter Evensen will create another joint venture between TK and TNK much along the lines of TK Operations that would involve a much more lucrative business: namely, the floating storage unit.

    The drop down of TK Operations cost TNK nothing in dollars from the firm's treasury and nothing in terms of the company debt since TNK issued 4.2M shares to TK for a 50 percent stake in the joint venture amounting to a tiny dilution of shares of a vastly undervalued stock. This increased TK's ownership stake in TNK while improving the TNK balance sheet.

    Let's face it. By any metric, TNK shares are absurdly under valued. I sense another drop down of a business in exchange for TNK shares. It is much more cost effective to issue shares from TK's perspective when the stock price is so low.

    I expect the "expert" weigh in with his "understanding" and spew out his usual nonsense.

    Notice how the "expert" kept whining about us not knowing the price of the TK Operations? Once we found out that it was 4.2M shares of TNK stock, the "expert" never mentioned the price again. Shows how biased his warped outlook really is. He knows nothing about the future direction of TNK yet he predicts bankruptcy. What a joke.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New CEO...

    by quantuon May 30, 2014 4:21 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 31, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Hey quant,

    what about the bit where TK has suddenly turned out to be a huge liability for TNK?

    how about the part where TK CEO's nefarious intentions are going to drive TNK out of business? And the bit where the new TNK CEO is nothing more than a puppet to carry out all those evil machinations from TK without any worries from the SEC? Pretty smart on the part of TK, huh? you understand, don't you? By making all us TNK shareholders bag holders as a soon-to-be bankrupt company while TK walks away with all the loot of their ill gotten gains? Poor witless TNK and all its shareholders get to sink into the abyss of defaulted debt?

    Glad we all have the "expert" and the "lawyer" to help us understand.

    And is it not great that somebody else on this board other than the expert "understands" what's going on in the tanker business and what is happening to TNK?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 29, 2014 10:12 PM Flag

    TK has decisive influence over TNK no question. But there are legal issues that bind the TNK BOD toward acting as fiduciaries in the best interests of the TNK shareholders and to avoid conflicts of interests with respect to TK and its shareholders. They still must engage in good corporate governance.

    Personally, I consider that the poor judgement shown in the past derived from TNK management and less from TK which seemed to be taking too little interest in controlling TNK management decisions and being too hands off. The past half year has marked a shift in TK handling of TNK management, involving a series of good decisions that improved and strengthened TNK and the firm's prospects going forward.

    FRO has much more debt than TNK and they are in danger of defaulting on more than $200M in convertible notes in the next year or so. FRO is in danger of going under. If FRO goes under it will mean fewer tankers on the seas and less competition providing higher spot rates for 2016 onwards.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 29, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    A more interesting question might relate to how the new ceo's pay package and the new ceo performance would impact upon the share price.

    This is a guy who is leaving a multibillion dollar company, a very good firm with a degree of monopolistic power along with outstanding prospects for increasing margins and sales growth, to go run a company with a $300M market cap in a stagnant sector in which some competitors are likely to go out of business. Why?

    The expertise acquired at PSX will be quite valuable to the BOD and shareholder of TNK to be sure. But what's in it for the new ceo?

    By my reckoning, TNK must have offered the ceo a lucrative pay package with stock options that align with the interests of the shareholders. When we know how the ceo will be paid and how he shall be incentivized then we should know how it all would likely impact upon share price and then possibly upon the dividend policy.

    A cynic like mscr@pp would say, "what difference can a ceo make to the profits of a tanker company? It all depends upon the spot rates, doesn't it?"

    The ceo can make a huge difference in a company like TNK. The routes chosen and the client connections in the industry should undoubtedly have a tremendous impact on profits especially in the product transport side of the business.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It really goes to show that I am 100 percent right about TNK going up into the $40s within five years. TNK could not possibly have hired a better CEO. What genius! As an owner of PSX stock, there is no other business that impresses me more than PSX. I have began buying shares in PSX since last summer. I keep buying more shares. In fact, I bought more shares late last week. I still wish I had bought more. PSX is a hugely profitable company with a bright future. Actually, I just wish PSX would buy TNK for $1 billion and have done with it. They could pay in PSX stock and I would be quite satisfied. But I will take their executive talent for now. Great new pick for CEO! TNK is on its way to 10 bagger land!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Recovering from surgery

    by jrfillion May 19, 2014 8:41 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 23, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    good points, quant.

    I also like how some conveniently fail to mention that TNK just co-founded with TK a brand new tanker company known now Tanker Investments TIL. The new tanker company, a subsidiary of TNK and TK for practical intents and purposes, just took in a whopping $375M in fresh new capital from private investment placement and from its recent IPO.

    How long did we hear the same tired complaint that "we still don't know how much TNK paid for TK operations" and now we don't hear any more about it. Why? Well because the amount paid for the purchase was paid with 4.20M shares in TNK stock (soon to be worthless according to some due to the impending BK according to some). TNK's nice new revenue stream will neither increase the debt of the company nor decrease the treasury of the firm.

    I did a fair amount of research on the debt and I was able to ascertain that TNK pays roughly $20M per annum in financing costs for its $630M in debt with no principal being due until 2017. If TNK eliminated the dividend entirely, the would free up more than $11M for the debt servicing. TNK retains a quarter of its tankers on charter contract for some time out in the future, locking in a significant cash-flow while allowing it the upside if spot rates soar again. TNK has already begun in-chartering tankers at a cheaper rate than what it in secure in the charter rate markets providing TNK with another revenue stream without taking on any more debt or purchasing any more tankers.

    Some keep harping about "global rates" when TNK has for a number of years forged well established business connections that give the company the best possible rates for the best routes and it is the routes that determine the rates.

    With all that TNK has done to secure its future financially in the past six months, how on earth is TNK supposed to go broke??? and get forced into bankruptcy? It's really quite absurd.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    In Answer to My Critics

    by pb_harris4 May 17, 2014 8:22 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 19, 2014 5:02 AM Flag

    Lookout!

    pms has gone batty again. LOL So sad the moron makes such a spectacle of itself.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TNK
4.06-0.05(-1.22%)4:05 PMEDT

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