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Teekay Tankers Ltd. Message Board

pb_harris4 39 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Feb 14, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Knock Knock Knockin' on Seven's Door

    by pb_harris4 23 hours ago
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 22 hours ago Flag

    What is that old adage on Wall Street? I think originated with the guy who was a legend in his own time, recognized as the greatest trader of all-time. Namely, Jesse Livermore. He made fortunes. And he lost them. But I like to remind people that Livermore made tremendous trading stocks with his own money. Very few can say that much.

    Oh yeah, what is old adage? Sell your losers but let your winners run!

    Livermore also wrote in his book that he made most of his money over time... "sitting on my hands doing nothing at all."

    I say buy and hold TNK shares and don't them go. Don't sell 'em. Just keep TNK shares and what them fly higher in price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Knock Knock Knockin' on Seven's Door

    by pb_harris4 23 hours ago
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 23 hours ago Flag

    Indeed it does, kos. It feels mighty good today. And it would not shock me if we touch $8 by the close.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • My apologies to Bob Dylan.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 by pb_harris4 May 21, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Whether TNK closes at $7 or above or at $6.98????

    Isn't it the direction that counts in the long term?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking for breakout

    by vtylehnde May 15, 2015 10:51 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 21, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    Got my eye on $8 big time. In the meantime, though, doesn't it feel good to be riding a winner? I mean isn't it nice to see the stock going up almost everyday? If $7 doesn't happen today, so what? What difference does it make if it happens next Tuesday? My eye is on $8 a share. Sometime time in June perhaps?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking for breakout

    by vtylehnde May 15, 2015 10:51 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 19, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    It's coming never fear. Better to look for $8. Then we are in the clear for a major run higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    big mistake

    by nadsmis May 18, 2015 10:56 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 19, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    See nads, what you say represents the difference between you and me. You worry about "beta of 2,3" and "historical volatility of 49.5%" and you add that those numbers are "too high for this fairly risk adverse investor" and thinking to myself, what? Huh? What on earth? The terms you are using are concepts that relate to the thinking of a trader much more than investor.

    Investors don't look to sell so quickly. They just don't buy thinking they might need to bail out on a dime. They buy slowly and they build positions. They look to hold for two years and more.

    And they don't worry so much about immediate term fluctuations except as opportunities to add more.

    What is important is VALUATION with respect to PRCIE. TNK is trading at LESS THAN FIVE TERMS ANNUALIZED EARNINGS based upon last quarter and the present quarter which represents SIX MONTH OF BUSINESS IN THE HERE AND NOW!

    My advice is buy this stock and hold it. Better yet, if you have not read it already and if you don't already own a copy, go to Amazon and order yourself a copy of the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham and read it over and over. I am not against trading stocks with a small percentage of my portfolio under unique circumstances. But I own a portfolio of 30 stocks that I intend to hold for the rest of my life. TNK is probably one of them though I am not sure. But I will be holding TNK for the next seven to ten years at least. I like the business model. I like the growth rate. I very much like the upside from here which I have pegged at $40 a share over the timeframe in which I am fully prepared to hold.

    Good luck to you. But if you are selling soon after buying then you are trading not investing. And trading is a harder way to go. I do only under very narrow conditions with stocks that are themselves trades not investments. In the end, you must know what you are. Then you must know what you are buying and what you are willing to own. Sorry for being direct.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    big mistake

    by nadsmis May 18, 2015 10:56 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 18, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    Why not just own it? I have owned it since it was selling in the low $2s. I have been right too. I don't have to be right on every wiggle in the share price. I only have to be right on the multi-year trend direction.

    Think about it. To me, it feels right to do what I am doing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Load Up Now

    by dboehm88 May 13, 2015 12:08 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 16, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    Screw "maybe 7" I want to see 8. Get the 8 handle and then things will look a whole lot better.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 by pb_harris4 May 15, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    Self inflicted wounding by management is a major concern in my mind now.

    I am concerned that the company will look to purchase yet more tankers to expand the fleet even further.

    Am I am worried that they will pay for new tankers by either taking out yet more debt or diluting yet more shares with yet another issuance of common stock or possibly both - which is what they did the last time they expanded the fleet at a cost of $235M.

    Hope that TNK just contents itself with consolidating its position in the marketplace and strengthening the balance sheet by increasing the cash balance and paying down debt.

    If TNK management does not wish to increase the dividend, then they had better be a good custodian of the firm's treasury. They need to focus on cutting costs and raising revenues.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 14, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    bluefin, it's not quite that simple.

    There is a certain degree of corporate incestuousness between the two corporations to be sure. But, again, I would remind you that TNK has its OWN board of directors that has its OWN Chair who is not Peter Evensen. TNK has its own CEO who is not Peter Evensen.

    You have to understand that the potential conflicts of interests would be huge if what you are suggesting were applicable to TK influence regarding TNK if the firms were not kept at arm's length in terms of the corporate decision making by the BOD there would be untenable tort liability.

    For the record, Arthur Bensler is the Chair of the TNK five member BOD. He is a lawyer and serves as General Counsel of TK and serves as a board member on TK too. But he must act independently with respect to all TNK BOD business.

    Peter Evensen does NOT even have a seat on the TNK BOD. Kevin Mackey, the newly hired TNK CEO serves at the pleasure of the TNK BOD.. End of story. He does have a seat on the TK BOD but that does not mean that he has any influence on the TNK BOD. In fact, NONE of the FOUR other TNK directors has a seat on the TK BOD.

    They are completely INDEPENDENT!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TNK Selling for Five Times Annualized Earnings?

    by pb_harris4 May 14, 2015 9:30 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 14, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    I agree but not everybody long on this board does. Some think TNK should solely focus only upon strengthening the balance sheet by paying down debt and increasing cash reserves. i think they are better off trying to return capital to shareholders through increased dividends and by increasing cash reserves and paying down debt. They can do it all. Besides the share price is absurdly low. It under values the company by way too much. Not taking action to remedy that disconnect in the market sends the wrong message. Raise the dividend, I say. And if the share price does not go up in a meaningful way then buy back the stock. I usually don't like stock buybacks. But the market is disrespecting the value of the company by too much.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 14, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    I am strongly in favor of increasing the dividend. I have been in favor of increasing the dividend for a year.

    I know that not everybody on the board who is bullish and long agrees.

    But TNK should raise the dividend by a lot in my view. I would think a 100 percent increase in the dividend now would be a good start. Let me say to my fellow shareholders who disagree that the dividend should be raised now because dividends are a very important way of returning value to shareholders when earnings are way up.

    I know people really disagree that raising dividends don't impact share price much either with respect to TNK in particular. But a dividend hike cannot hurt the share price in my estimation. It can help create positive feeling.

    As for whether they will or not, I think it is a 50 50 proposition. TK controls the board composition through a class of common stock that has five times the voting power as the shares of the rest of the shareholders.

    But TNK has its own BOD and its own management. The CEO and CFO run the firm. It would not work to do it any other way. The BOD and the management do what they do until they get fired.

    TK might indeed want a dividend increase. They are also very likely not willing, however, to reconstitute the board of directors to get it. It depends upon the BOD and they have voted to keep it at a "fixed" rate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I can only think of one possible reason why. The market simply does not believe present quarterly earnings and cashflows are sustainable for any length of time going out in future quarters much less future years. Which begs the question. How long can the market keep the share price of TNK down at such a low multiple when they are performing like such a huge cash generating machine now?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 12, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    hey rb,

    you might find it interesting that I bought a small position in TGD. It's only 5000 shares and I don't intend to add to it. But if gold ever returns to a bull market, it could do rather well. In the meantime, I am still adding AXU. There is a large portion for me. I know it is a fool's plan to hope but I still hope we get a good report this week. I am crossing my fingers that the AEG is making more money. That might take the pressure off somewhat.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    out of favor

    by last2cents May 11, 2015 12:29 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 11, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    Downgrades that get shaken off are bullish. TNK needs to keep making money, building up its cash reserves, paying down debt, and paying dividends and managing its fleet of tankers and building its business which is growing. TNK must make a judgement call on how much charter contract work it should take upon its books.

    N0w, China and its neighbors import oil at much higher quantities for the purpose of strategic stockpiling due to geopolitical tensions that have emerged in the past year. Demand is not the major factor now. But Bank of China did lower rates again for the third time in six months to stimulate growth or to cushion economic decline should it happen due to reforms to deal with bad debt that is huge problem for China

    Anticipating the future of spot rates in the tanker market is a dicey proposition now. I would be adding to the charter contract portion of the fleet to lock in cash flows for the future and take off risk.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's Confirmed...

    by lemildras May 1, 2015 2:42 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 May 4, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    Why is it that whenever I make a bullish postings, I get attacked viciously? But whenever somebody else makes a bullish comment even citing the chart pattern, they get pretty much left alone?

    Even stood down nappy during all the down times. I have stayed long and strong throughout. If folks had listened to nappy they would have either missed an opportunity to make money or they would have lost money shorting. If they had listened to me, they would have made money.

    Yet I get no respect.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting Chart Pattern Developing

    by pb_harris4 Mar 27, 2015 4:59 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Apr 7, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    for the record, I play powerball and mega millions each and every drawing. The odds are atrocious but the payoff is huge. therefore, I play. I gave the craps table twenty years ago. Too easy too lose too much.

    As for technicals, it measures what is happening in the market rather in the business. I am a Benjamin Graham guy so I look at the fundamentals and invest accordingly. I have purchased all the TNK shares that I am going to purchase. I am not selling. Therefore, where is the harm in looking at the charts to see where my shares are going in price? I am not gambling. I made my investment a long time ago at much lower prices.

    As for the usufulness of technical analysis, I think it unwise to disregard entirely TA when it can provide a warning signal for selling or slow down signal for buying value when it has broken down. For trading, it is much more prone to treacherous, I agree. But it should not be used for "forecasting" per se. It should be used to give you a sense as to where the pulse of the market is at any given moment in the context of where it has been and it CAN SOMETIMES provide a clue as to whether it might be propitious to buy, sell, hold. I ALSO think it foolish to rely entirely upon TA for trading stocks or for investing.

    I myself do not use TA for such purposes. But that doesn't mean that the TA is not indicating a propitious moment for TNK shares.

    bluefin, live and let live. You don't know everything.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting Chart Pattern Developing

    by pb_harris4 Mar 27, 2015 4:59 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Apr 6, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    Note the volume today compared to previous sessions in the past few weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Apr 5, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    The CEO made the point in the recent conference call on the latest earnings release that Alexco was going to have $10 million in cash once a cash bond was released on a project that was being completed by AEG. That means that means that 38.50 percent of the market capitalization of AXU is accounted for in terms of the firm's cash in bank while it has no bond issuance or bank loan outstanding. I think the firm has something like $4M in silver bullion in storage. It has patents, mining equipment, mill facilities, and land in the Yukon in which silver, iron, zinc, nickel and even a small amount of gold have been located awaiting a mining operation to get it all out of the ground at an affordable price for a reasonable profit in a far better commodities market for PM which we don't have now. But just imagine AXU can be bought for $11M-$12M now. Nobody wants it because the CEO has declared the firm's intention to dilute the shares or sell off valuable parts of the AEG business to resume mining operations again. But that is really besides the point. The value proposition is outstanding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TNK
7.25+0.32(+4.62%)May 22 4:03 PMEDT