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Teekay Tankers Ltd. Message Board

pb_harris4 25 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 19, 2014 4:36 PM Member since: Feb 14, 2012
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  • pb_harris4 by pb_harris4 Sep 19, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    The saying springs to mind, "The worse it gets, the better it gets." Nevermind that it was Lenin who is attributed with having made the statement originally. It fits nicely with AXU and whatever prospective mining operations might exist in the future in relation to capex by the ceo and management.

    The AXU market capitalization is roughly $64M but the ceo proposes spending $35M on permitting the Flame and Moth mine ($15M) and paying a fee for renegotiating a bad royalty deal ($29M). This is money AXU does not have. It has $14M in cash and $4M in silver inventory. And it makes $5M a year from its environmental business.

    That's why the market is now pricing AXU at 89 cents a share. The ceo is recklessly pursuing a speculative gambit that might not pay off for five years or longer. The charts indicate that silver could drop as low as $12 an ounce. I see $15 an ounce as a distinct possibility presently and I am a long term bull on silver. It makes no sense t spend money on permitting a fourth mine when it has three on permit now. And it makes no sense to hand over $29M to Silver Wheaton when silver mining is no longer viable at today's prices much less even lower prices.

    Just focus on the environmental business. Cut back overhead. Stop the self inflicted wounding. Make money! Be profitable! Increase the cash reserves for the first time in AXU history quarter after quarter. And the price of the shares will triple within months. I have the sense it will take $12-$15 an ounce silver for the ceo to be forced to abandon his plans that involve profligate spending in today's commodities market. Denial is not a river in Egypt. It is located in a corner office seated in front of a long desk in Vancouver Canada..

    Here's to lower silver prices. May they drop like a lead balloon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Deutsche Bank

    by mikeyhorsehead Sep 16, 2014 10:31 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Sep 16, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    TNK is up more than nine percent today so far. How can you be so certain that TNK cannot go up 100 percent in a few months or 1,000 percent in five years? At today's rate of price increase, TNK will have no problem meeting both quant's expectations and my own.

    In any event, it certainly beats the hell out of your call for a TNK bankruptcy, doesn't it?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Deutsche Bank

    by mikeyhorsehead Sep 16, 2014 10:31 AM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Sep 16, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    Looks like quant has been vindicated. That is unless msnapp knows more than the analysts at Deutsche Bank.

    Actually, I think I would take the view of real experts over pseudo-experts any day. There you have it, folks. TNK rated a buy with a price target placed at $7 a share by one of the most successful and largest banks in the world. Quant called for a double. Sounds pretty similar.

    I'm sure that msnapp will have some nonsense to use to try to explain away everything. But TNK is on its way upward to much higher levels. That is a fact. And facts are stubborn things. Much better than opinions like what msnapp offers. Just opinions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TNK's brilliant hire CEO

    by msnapp82 Sep 12, 2014 5:02 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Sep 12, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    What is this "we" to which you refer? I vote that if msnapp is actually on board this tanker that we make him walk the plank so that the sharks can have an unsavory meal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is Alexco really worth?

    by pb_harris4 Aug 17, 2014 1:23 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Sep 9, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    Alexco AXU made a new low today and that's a good thing for the longs in the long term because it sends a badly needed message to the CEO and his management team. What they are doing IS NOT WORKING. So they should stop spending the money in the firm's treasury cash account on prospects that might never pay off in the future. Stop speculating on higher prices on silver and other metals. End of story. Better yet, think seriously about resigning. The stock would go up TWENTY PERCENT the next trading after the CEO resigns.

    I guarantee it. Still an enormous bargain. But how can you pull trigger when there is so much incompetence at the management level.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is Alexco really worth?

    by pb_harris4 Aug 17, 2014 1:23 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Sep 8, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    The price silver is going lower presently. Alexco has five million dollars in silver inventoried at current prices. I would much rather sell it all today and put the money in the bank. It's not enough to move the market if they sell it gradually enough. If silver drops down to less than $10 an ounce Alexco will have lost a couple million dollars on paper. Alexco needs to keep the company strong by maintaining a high cash balance. I would hold off spending any more money on permits until silver proves itself by rising back above $25 at minimum. With the bought deal, Alexco would have almost $15M in the bank. With the sale of its sale, it would have nearly $20M. That's a nice cash balance for a firm that has a market cap of $70M and could make $5M a year if only it would stop spending money on unprofitable mining. The Flame and Moth mine is the firm's most lucrative mine. I estimate that it could produce more than three million ounces a year in silver due to its concentrations and closeness to surface and proximity to the milling operation. That's a remarkable fact considering that Alexco had only one mine permitted when it last operational and it produced two million ounces of silver with contract miners. Now Alexco has three mines under permit that should produce seven million ounces a year. Add Flame and Moth and Alexco should produce ten million ounces of silver a year. There's only problem: silver is not economically viable below $20 an ounce for the Yukon region. Laying off workers was never an issue for Alexco because it always used contract miners. They just cancelled the contracts. Now they are looking at the possibility at hiring for self mining in the future. But they have all the time in the world since silver might not go above $20 an ounce for months if not years. I say that Alexco should save all its money and focus on the Environment and Consulting business. Making money is the name of this game. Forget about the Canadian Gov.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is Alexco really worth?

    by pb_harris4 Aug 17, 2014 1:23 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Sep 3, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Thx, rb. I actually bought dec calls on dust because i can see panic selloff coming in the precious metals prices that going to retest the lows in june 2013 and more than likely break the support which is going to crush the gold miners this autumn. i think we need a washout in the miners because they are way too sanguine with gold where it is and where it is going in the immediate term.

    as for alexco, i will keep my shares for the long term, i will probably add more shares with my gains on the dust calls. but to not put too fine a point on my analysis above, i think that a much lower price in silver will be good for alexco because it should force the ceo to exhausting the firm's treasury on speculation. alexco shares might fall to below 90 cents too which will also add a lot of needed pressure on the ceo and management to finally wake up and smell reality. a

    alexco is an environmental business that is quite lucrative, frankly, for the market capitalization with mining assets that might be worth hundreds of millions one day but are not economically viable now.

    I don't want axu to get bought out because the value is too much for it to get the kind of premium it deserves. I would prefer a spinoff of the environmental unit or a sale or partnership of the mining operation. The market cap is absurd at $70M. The firm's assets are worth at least three times that much. Mostly, I would like to see the ceo get fired.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is Alexco really worth?

    by pb_harris4 Aug 17, 2014 1:23 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 30, 2014 5:15 PM Flag

    In all honesty, I really think that the discounting of Alexco shares is a reflection upon the performance of management, more specifically, the CEO. Even though Alexco is one hell of a bargain, I think there is a limitto what the shareholders will put up with when it comes to spending on the future when the future is based upon a speculative component such as the price of precious metals like silver.

    Why not hold off spending $10 million on permits for the Flame and Moth mining operation? Why not take a wait and see approach on the amendment to the Silver Wheaton royalty agreement? Here's a thought: why not save $14M Alexco has now in cash, sell the silver in the inventory to collect another $5M and focus on the environment business that is raking in $1M to $1.5M a quarter positive cash flow while cutting back on executive pay and expenses on exploration and other extravagances? Why not grow the cash balance and concentrate on building the one business that is working? Just a suggestion.

    I would not mind it too much if the price of silver plunged down to single digits for the very reasons stated above. It would force a hard facing of realities on pie in the sky plans for leveraging mining operations that might never again be profitable if the price of silver drops enough. But if the price of silver goes back to $30 an ounce, Alexco can always reverse everything and reopen the mining operations. Why spend money before the chickens have hatched? That is what the CEO is doing in any event. Why ???

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Raymond James upgrades to strong buy

    by last2cents Aug 20, 2014 3:11 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 22, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    mscrap,, you obviously have no idea what in the world you're talking about with respect to TNK. Whatever issues there might have been with TNK's survival when the stock price was$2.35 is now a distant memory. TK has settled the question once and for all time. TNK is its growth vehicle. End of story. TNK is now the best in breed when it comes to tanker stocks.

    What do you care one way or the other? What is your interest? How is TNK's business any of your business? Why don't you just take a hike and go peddle your garbage somewhere else?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Raymond James upgrades to strong buy

    by last2cents Aug 20, 2014 3:11 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 21, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    msnapp,

    your hubris never ceases to amaze. You not only think that you are always the smartest guy in the room. You never think that anyone else who disagrees with you on TNK has any intelligence about the markets whatsoever. I am familiar with the concepts of contango and backwardation. Your analysis is utterly flawed in terms of TNK and the sorts of speculation to which you are referring. I recall how speculators were anticipating making so much money by making such a killing in the futures market that they were contracting out tankers to park in the middle of the high seas as a way of warehousing oil until prices went higher. Some made fortunes doing it too. But TNK was doing just fine during those days.

    What you fail to understand is that if the tanker market for spot rates falls, then TNK benefits hugely by grabbing additional market share from the other firms that will fail under the massive debt that TNK does not have. If the tanker market improves, TNK will benefit by taking higher profits. TNK is backed by TK and a better business model than its competitors. That's a powerful combination that cannot fail no matter what comes.

    Let me put it this way. Since you have continually disrespected my "insights" the share price of TNK has gone from $2.35 all the way up to $4.25. Who is right? You? Or me? Who is the market saying is right? You? Or me? Hehehehe.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Raymond James upgrades to strong buy

    by last2cents Aug 20, 2014 3:11 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 21, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    Oh the expert of experts has spoken. He thinks because he uses fancy terminology like "contango" that we will all become suddenly more favorably impressed with his usual nonsense. It's the same old chicken little screaming "the sky is falling!" Look, there is no debt problem as far as TNK is concerned. They are making lots of money on multiple streams of revenue. TNK has a lucrative and growing brokerage business that gives the firm a risk free advantage over the other tanker companies.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • WIth the new shares AXU is printing for the bought deal that closes August 30, The market is pricing AXU at $70M for the whole company lock, stock and barrel. Is it worth it? Well, it got an environmental and consulting business that makes about $4 million a year. What's that worth? It did seem to be growing last year. Perhaps not so much this year though it has patents and pretty good contracts in north America with good prospects in Latin America. What's the mining operation worth? Nothing?

    AXU has invested almost $200M in mining and mill equipment and permitting. It has spent nearly $50 in drilling for exploration. it was making money when silver was trading above $30 an ounce using exorbitant contract miners who were flown in by Canadian Air for $600,000 a year in travel expenses. There is gold in one of the mines calculated to be worth roughly $13M once they get it out of the ground. There is nickel in another mine in abundance. There is some iron. There is more zinc than anything and zinc can be very lucrative in the right commodity market. And there is a boat load of silver pretty much all over the place. The Flame and Moth is the best prospect for silver because it is so concentrated and so close to the surface with each and cheap access in terms of getting it. But they don't have the permits for it.

    It's a game of what ifs. If silver goes up, then AXU stock will perform like a call option on silver leveraged so much it will be as though it were laced with steroids. AXU went to $10 when silver went to $50 and that was with a secondary offering on the way up. AXU is not getting any consideration like other silver miners mostly because the others are making money by mining. AXU is not. But that doesn't mean that AXU is not worth a hell of a lot more than what the market is pricing it. Benjamin Graham said that the market is a voting machine in the short run but a weighing machine in the long run. What will AXU be worth next year

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 17, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    another_m_c_12:

    It's not as bad as the report made it look overall though I am disappointed by the lack of progress in building the AXU Environment business which I think essential to rewarding shareholders like ourselves. Apparently, most of the loss was in writedowns on the considerable investment that AXU has made on equipment during the past five years.. There was a significant loss from rewarding key employees. But the actual "burn rate" or draw down on the cash account was not much more than $300,000, only fraction of the loss declared. And that's what matter the most.

    The CEO and the management still frustrate me. I don't want any burn rate at all. I think the CEO who has cut his own salary by more than half should actually take a $1 per annum salary until the stock price recovers to at least $3 a share. The reason I pick the $3 number is not because I bought in at that level. I own most of my shares at $1.05 and some legacy shares at $2.25 for which I sold calls. It's the Canadian moms and pops who bought AXU shares at $3 on a special government tax subsidy so that AXU could continue with its exploration program. That program has yielded good information from a geological POV but that is not helping the shareholders. It's all theoretical.

    AXU is a fantastic bargain at today's price but that doesn't make much difference to the shareholders who are suffering with a paper loss no matter when the AXU shares were bought. We are at the lows of the lows. It really should not go down any further but the fact that the price is below a $1 means that the market is not on board with the CEO's program for reopening mining operations. And the management of the treasury after all the money that has been spent to the tune of something approach a quarter of a billion dollars since before the SLW royalty deal was signed by this CEO.

    The CEO wants to spend $8M raised in a bought deal for permitting Flame and Moth. He wants another $15M. Enough!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short interest going down...

    by kosmiccharly Aug 12, 2014 7:48 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 14, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    Not only is the smart money getting long and only is the not quite as dumb money covering somewhat misguided shorts, notwithstanding msnapp's chicken little routine (which has been wearing thin since he knows nothing about TNK). When TNK goes above the FIVE DOLLAR level, institutional money that is barred from owning stocks below $5 a share will get back on board in droves. That should carry TNK well into the double digits by my reckoning. Now the principal institutional buying TNK shares are small cap funds because they are allowed to buy sub $5 stocks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    the charts tell the story

    by fibbosr Aug 6, 2014 3:44 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Aug 6, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    I like the chart on silver as being quite bullish in terms of bottoming out for a new meaningful leg higher and a surprise resumption of a 12 year plus secular bull market in silver that too many market pundits had prematurely called dead. We had a surge in the spring and a nice Fib retracement of 50 percent this summer so far ending today with a break in the downward trend. I like the action in silver overall as presaging an extended run higher presently that breaks through resistance in the $22-$23 range in the coming weeks leading into the upper $20s toward $30 an ounce level. That scenario would move AXU shares in a most propitious fashion. I can see AXU moving into the $3.25-$3.50 range by this time next year or by August 2015. Thank you for your attention.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    strong holding

    by t_baroi Jul 31, 2014 1:30 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jul 31, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    I bought more today, adding a significant percentage. I am reminded of David Einhorn who often looks at a valuation in terms of there being "multiple ways to win" in the performance of the stock. As an American, I own AXU in terms of the USD. That means that I have bought the stock today at a significant discount because of the over valuation of the U.S. dollar versus the Canadian dollar. The currencies will once again trade at parity and when that happens AXU will increase nearly ten percent. The price of silver should go higher. If it does, AXU will go up exponentially. If silver languishes, then the AXU environmental business will continue to grow at 50 percent in sales and earnings. The recent bought deal provides funding for permitting the firm's most valuable mine. They have a new deal on the table for paying SLW. AXU has a far better understanding of the resources it has under the ground. What AXU geologists have discovered is very very encouraging. Also AXU management has been drawing up plans for shifting toward self mining and doing much more cost effectively. The biggest criticism I have for the CEO is his failure as a caretaker of the firm's treasury. AXU has spent money unwisely and profligately. AXU has failed to take advantage when the advantage was there. I hate the original deal with SLW. It should never have been signed. The $50M was not enough and they never really needed it. They could have raised what they needed for exploration and postponed mining permitting for three to five years. When silver went up to $50 an ounce, that was the time to sell 50 million shares at six dollars a share. They could raised $300 million. They could have used a small portion to fund the permitting and open the first mine in 2015. It would have worked much better than what AXU ended up doing, which was sign away too much in royalties and raise too little in equity offerings when the time was right. But the stock is WAY UNDERVALUED!!!.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dirty Tanker Rates are still moving north

    by lakers_fan919 Jul 10, 2014 11:50 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jul 13, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    msnapp,

    surely you are better than that pathetic commentary. That is really beneath you to hurl such a below the belt diatribe. And it is egregiously unfair and unjust. Is your ego really so fragile that you must engage in such a personal attack upon somebody on this board simply because he disagrees with you? We trade and we invest what we see the best we can. The world is not our responsibility.

    Peace, love and compassion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dirty Tanker Rates are still moving north

    by lakers_fan919 Jul 10, 2014 11:50 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jul 13, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    Somebody is mistaken yet again. quant has my respect and he really went up in my estimation when he offered up the astute observation that the "expert" had "gone batty" but that was before the expert really started going way over the edge with pontifications regarding TNK's bankruptcy. The "downturn" predicted by the "expert" has failed to materialize too. Any other brilliant observations from the "expert"??

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dirty Tanker Rates are still moving north

    by lakers_fan919 Jul 10, 2014 11:50 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jul 11, 2014 7:53 PM Flag

    The only thing "flimsy" about TNK is the "analysis" of the company by a so-called "expert" that emerges to amuse the TNK longs who have been making a fortune holding shares from $2.50 to $4.00 on this tanker. TNK itself as a company and as a stock is as solid as Gibralter. When the fundamentals of a firm improve while the market fails (temporarily) to "risk capital" that is called a actionable disconnect and a bullish indicator for which smart investors take as a signal to purchase shares aggressively. In other words, the outlook for TNK shares is superb. My take? Take the "expert" for it amusement but know he has no credibility at least where TNK is concerned or the tanker market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dirty Tanker Rates are still moving north

    by lakers_fan919 Jul 10, 2014 11:50 PM
    pb_harris4 pb_harris4 Jul 11, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    I wonder how long TNK can stave off bankruptcy with Suezmax rates so strong! Perhaps "the expert" could enlighten us? How is it that TNK shares seem to be hovering tenaciously around the $4 level when a recent posting by the "expert" indicated that it was on its way back to $2.50???

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TNK
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