American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board
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Holy cow. WHat attitude. You must have been badly mistreated as a child to respond the way you do.
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ONLY SEEKING ALPHA PUMPING THIS SHAM. DON'T SEE BARRONS TELLING ANYONE TO BUY.
by done_fed •Jun 3, 2013 5:33 PMHey tough guy. It's easy to bad mouth anything, especially when it's down huge. Like AGNC, MTGE, or any of the sector. Let's see if you've got the nads to actually back up what you say and short this one. I'll bet nay amount of money you won't short it. So keep giving us your informed opinions anyway.
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I have. It is very well written. Prices were higher when it was written last week and MS pointed out that the sector was largely undervalued then. Extremely oversold now obviously.
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how would i call you?
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MS did an extensive analysis of a variety of REITs as of 5/23. The ones they analysed are; AGNC, AMTG, HTS, IVR, MFA, NLY. I am happy to email to anyone the full 30 odd page report. They were as specific as possible in evaluating both assets and the corresponding hedges. As of 5/23 these are the BVs that they hang their hats on;
AGNC-27.99, AMTG-20.91, HTS-27.44, IVR-20.06, MFA-8.68, NLY-14.57
Yes, MBS giot slaughtered yest, but hedges would have mitigated a lot of that movement. Today treasuries are firmer and MBS are higher as well. The fact that the sector continues in a full on melt down mode tells you more about sentiment than value. MS's price targets; AGNC-32, AMTG-24, HTS-27, IVR-23, MFA-10, NLY-15. Needless to say their view is that the entire sector is trading at a discount to NAV. In some cases deeply. They present a base case, bull case and bear case on evaluations. For example in their bear case they have AGNC going to 26. Whoops.
Anyway, I have no good way of distributing this without those that want it to post their emails. Happy to send along.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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No one is hedged perfectly in this environment. But AGNC has historically been one of the smarter players. So while I'm not suggesting that BV hasn't deteriorated since 5/23rd, This morning when AGNC was down 5% while treasuries and MBS were up in price, buyers were buying well beneath BV. My bet is that when its all said and done, the FED cannot tighten anytime soon, and QE3 will continue for far longer than the doomsayers are saying now. Germany's unemployment picture worsened today, europe is still awful, central banks the world over are desperately trying to devalue their currencies versus all others. And our own economy is not exactly robust. Easy money, .ow rates will continue. AGNC may not see 35 again soon, but it's still very cheap
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MS did an extensive analysis of a variety of REITs as of 5/23. The ones they analysed are; AGNC, AMTG, HTS, IVR, MFA, NLY. I am happy to email to anyone the full 30 odd page report. They were as specific as possible in evaluating both assets and the corresponding hedges. As of 5/23 these are the BVs that they hang their hats on;
AGNC-27.99, AMTG-20.91, HTS-27.44, IVR-20.06, MFA-8.68, NLY-14.57
Yes, MBS giot slaughtered yest, but hedges would have mitigated a lot of that movement. Today treasuries are firmer and MBS are higher as well. The fact that the sector continues in a full on melt down mode tells you more about sentiment than value. MS's price targets; AGNC-32, AMTG-24, HTS-27, IVR-23, MFA-10, NLY-15. Needless to say their view is that the entire sector is trading at a discount to NAV. In some cases deeply. They present a base case, bull case and bear case on evaluations. For example in their bear case they have AGNC going to 26. Whoops.
Anyway, I have no good way of distributing this without those that want it to post their emails. Happy to send along.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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MS did an extensive analysis of a variety of REITs as of 5/23. The ones they analysed are; AGNC, AMTG, HTS, IVR, MFA, NLY. I am happy to email to anyone the full 30 odd page report. They were as specific as possible in evaluating both assets and the corresponding hedges. As of 5/23 these are the BVs that they hang their hats on;
AGNC-27.99, AMTG-20.91, HTS-27.44, IVR-20.06, MFA-8.68, NLY-14.57
Yes, MBS giot slaughtered yest, but hedges would have mitigated a lot of that movement. Today treasuries are firmer and MBS are higher as well. The fact that the sector continues in a full on melt down mode tells you more about sentiment than value. MS's price targets; AGNC-32, AMTG-24, HTS-27, IVR-23, MFA-10, NLY-15. Needless to say their view is that the entire sector is trading at a discount to NAV. In some cases deeply. They present a base case, bull case and bear case on evaluations. For example in their bear case they have AGNC going to 26. Whoops.
Anyway, I have no good way of distributing this without those that want it to post their emails. Happy to send along. -
and reading the PDF presentation that they made on 5/22 at the Barclay's conference. They have a lot of hedges in place.
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This much we know for certain; most of the entire sector has had some pretty good insider buying on the way down, and they all hedge to a greater or lesser degree.
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I don't disagree with you. However, I think we all are having a problem figuring out what book value may be. You say buy it beneath BV and I agree, but what do you think BV is?
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VELT will need to raise capital. Shareholders will be diluted
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NAV as of yest was 11.53. The currency rallied (good for EWJ, bad for DXJ) and the index rallied .89%. Why EWJ is down 3% is beyond me. Should be trading closer to 11.75 or so. Currently at a decent discount to NAV
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You are nuts.
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Yeah, that's up 23% from the close. And that's a hold?
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Buy and forget, come back 1 yr later to see $8 - $12 for sure
by bullinvestor2003 •May 14, 2013 10:06 AMI do know what I own. Or did own. I bailed on 20k shares of VELT this morning. They need financing. This is as plain as day. If they survive, it will be via continual dilution. Good luck.
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I suspect that after looking at earnings and conference call of VELT, many are realizing that VELT is struggling and that MM is benefitting.
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Buy and forget, come back 1 yr later to see $8 - $12 for sure
by bullinvestor2003 •May 14, 2013 10:06 AMI own both this and MM. Unfortunately for VELT, MM is eating their lunch. When mgmt says that cash is tight and they think they can get into the 3rd quarter without having to dilute, they are merely covering their butts. This is very negative cash flow business and dilution is assurred. Survival is not.
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For what it's worth, MS thinks AGNC maintains it's dividend, but drops their price target $2 to $32
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The WSJ can print anything it wants to. However, the Fed is in no danger of, or hurry to end QE. The economy is tepid, the Fed has an unstated "weak dollar policy" in place.Sure, rates will rise at some point, but it will be on the back of a steeper curve. Fed funds will be here or close to here for a long long time. REITs funding will not be moving much. All good for levered spread players. That is, after the dust settles. It may be at lower prices, but that will be great entry points