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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

pc4me58 53 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 24, 2014 11:48 AM Member since: May 20, 2008
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  • that I recognized. I went to their website and saw that this is run by the fools at ARR. The same guys who brought you Bimini. I wouldn't touch this if you gave me money. Zimmer and pals are idiots. Steer clear.

  • Reply to

    I thought this POS has some stench

    by pc4me58 Aug 5, 2014 10:03 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 5, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    yeah, these guys are idiots. living large on the backs of shareholders. hmmmmm…..maybe they are the smart ones. I can say this with confidence then; zimmer has not ever been able to run a REIT. Lots of good REITs out there. This ain't one of them. But hey….he's making a load of loot.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 5, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    Hey numbskull. This will trade in relation to WLL. Plus/minus the arbirage value. Period. It will trade to $12 if WLL trades to $67.80.

  • Reply to

    What's a fair price for WMC now

    by jackhilr Aug 8, 2014 11:08 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 11, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Anyone who would pay 1.2 times BV has forgotten the lessons of may 2013. Here's a tip…Take a look at the two Ellington stocks. EARN and EFC. EFC is actually not a REIT because they can invest and hedge in ways REITs cannot. EFC reorts a BV every month unlike every REIT out there. Yields 12.87 at the moment. I wouldn't chase it. BUt these guys (Mike Vranos and crew) are the smartest guys in the room as they say. But never, ever pay 1.2x BV.

  • Reply to

    What's a fair price for WMC now

    by jackhilr Aug 8, 2014 11:08 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 11, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    Target price will weigh heavily on BV. If any of these ever get to 1.2x BV I'll gladly short them. Especially when the entire world is waiting for higher rates. Granted the guys shorting treasuries are all in shallow graves by now. But at some point the curve will steepen. Yes, EARN is very small. But very very good. ANd to earn 13% with tsome of he smartest guys in the MBS market for the last 25 years, I'll gladly keep filing my K-1s

  • Reply to

    What's a fair price for WMC now

    by jackhilr Aug 8, 2014 11:08 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 11, 2014 8:28 PM Flag

    Jeez do you have some bug up your butt or what? I happen to own WMC and was merely saying that I'd suggest that no one ever pay 1.2x BV for any REIT. That has never worked out in the long run. Their last reported BV was $15.31 so when guys are yakking about trading at such premiums that put the share price at 17 or 18, in my opinion there will be better places for my money. Do yourself a favor and look at a price graph of EFC vs WMC. It's simplistic, and doesn't include dividends. But over that last 2 years EFC is up 4+% while WMC, which was down 32+% until this recent rally, and is now down about 26%.Over the last year EFC was up 6 odd% while WMC is down 10%. Was down 17% until last week's rally.
    Like I mentioned, I own WMC. But it's a very different animal than all the others. Far more risky and thus will never tradae to the yields that say NLY trade. In oct 2012 when WMC traded in the mid 24s before plummeting to mid 13s this year, EFC was trading in the mid 22s. In the last 2 years the stock has traded as low as 21.20 a couple of times and is now in the low 24s. SO much less volatilty is should trade at a much lower yield. And it reports a BV monthly. If you don't understand that being short the treas market is perhaps the most crowded trade in history, then you're not paying attention. It's been the biggest losing trade for 5 years and someday it will work out. But in the meanwhile PIMCO has had some massively #$%$ years. I like Bill Gross but he's been wrong plenty. And as for John Mauldin, good luck. If one can wade through his lengthy dissertations on "a fabulous time was had by all as my lovely daughter Tiffany cooked a sumptous meal" a smart investor would understand that he's an economist who #1-pimps his much better economist friends and #2 gets paid what he's worth. Nada

  • NDLS (Noodles and Company) Noodles & Company develops and operates fast casual restaurants in the United States. The companys restaurants offer various cooked-to-order dishes, including noodles and pasta, soups, salads, sandwiches, and appetizers. As of April 1, 2014, it operated 394 locations in 30 states and the District of Columbia. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.
    IT IPO's on June 27, 2013 and was priced at $18.00, and zoomed 104% on it's first day to $37.00. It hit a high of $49.75, and has steadily fallen since.
    The company is hemorrhaging cash, and it's P.E was 102.48 today, before it fell 22% to $19.68 (from $25.21) after they posted poor earnings again.
    As restaurant stocks go, this is one of the worst. Book value per share is $4.27. Here is part of the release on earnings after the bell:
    Noodles & Co.'s (NASDAQ:NDLS) earnings fell 15% from the year-earlier quarter to 11 cents a share, missing analysts' consensus by 4 cents. Sales rose 11.5% to $99.5 million, missing the Street by more than $3 million.
    They also cut guidance, and I think the stock is headed to $5.00.
    I bought 10 $22.50 puts for $0.60 (so I spent $600.00 on the contracts) when NDLS was trading at $25.21. NDLS is now at $19.68. The $22.50 puts should be worth about $3.50 per contract tomorrow if NDLS is trading under $20.00.
    As you can see from this chart, everything is negative, trading well under it's 50 and 200 day moving averages. The stock hit my radar in early July when it was $30.00.
    I just wish I had the time to get this out there before the it reported earnings.
    I really think the stock, by January, is going to $5.00. The company is over-leveraged, it has negative $11M in cash flow, with only $668,000 in cash.

  • Reply to

    From a pretty smart guy

    by pc4me58 Aug 14, 2014 9:51 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 14, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Actually I'm not the smart guy. WIsh I was. The above is something I noticed online. Regarding a line of credit, banks could pull that, or downsize it, based upon NDLS performance. The shorts seem to have a compelling story. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    From a pretty smart guy

    by pc4me58 Aug 14, 2014 9:51 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 14, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    It sure is bold of you to #$%$ on others. If I was a betting man (and I am) I'd say you are long and trying to defend a position that is causing you severe rectal pain. Seems like there would be better places to invest than some company who's growth is decelerating while the PE is north of 100. Good luck, but I'd say guys like you might be better off in mutual funds.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 14, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    Haha…who is eating who? Shorts are up 21% today? How are your longs doing?

  • do a google search on Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation and check out the story entitled THE MITVAH FACTORY. Very clever guy who has uncovered pretty explosive information. A very good read.

  • Reply to

    If you'd like to see why AFSI is going down

    by pc4me58 Aug 19, 2014 11:30 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 19, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    Tell us what you think the motives are. Do you think he's short?

  • Reply to

    If you'd like to see why AFSI is going down

    by pc4me58 Aug 19, 2014 11:30 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 19, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    From the article:
    During the course of reporting this story, SIRF learned that a donor, GeoInvesting LLC, had written critically about AmTrust earlier this year. By way of disclosure, GeoInvesting was not a source on this story and was not informed of our work prior to release.!
    As always, neither SIRF or its board members has any economic interest in any
    security we discuss. ! !!!

  • Reply to

    If you'd like to see why AFSI is going down

    by pc4me58 Aug 19, 2014 11:30 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 20, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    WHo said it had to do with AFSI's business? It has to do with possible selling pressure. Keep being defensive and you'll miss the bigger picture.

  • Reply to

    Cash in my $105 leap calls for shares?

    by mrkincai Aug 26, 2014 10:52 PM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Aug 26, 2014 11:04 PM Flag

    Lots of time value in there. Looks like you own Jan 2016 LEAPS. Implied vol is around 35%. That's a pretty high long term vol even for GILD. Personally, assuming you have the cash, convert them to the equity and take a portion and buy way out of the money calls. For instance you could buy Jan 2015 130s 2.25ish. That would keep you in the equity, sell vol, and maintain leverage in a stock that seems to want to go significantly higher.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Sep 3, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    yes of course. WHy are you posting this on this board?

  • Reply to

    i love this board now,re options

    by awang25f Sep 3, 2014 6:35 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Sep 3, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    I think you should get that prediction on tape. No worthwhile advisor would suggest that.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Sep 3, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    I assume you were not talking to me.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Sep 30, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    Much bigger news is that they will release a Book Value estimate monthly. Like EFC. This is very very positive

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Sep 30, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    It's trading at a 19% discount to June 30 Book Value. He'd better be a buyer.

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